1st July Solar FiT Rate Delayed ?!?

ventureuk

I've been looking at getting a 4kw system installed before the 1st of July and found this report tonight. Bang up to date and from the Climate Change Minister...

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5jbWG_H1GZZJzhALpD1FpNFf6fVFA?docId=N0168321337256950635A

jimjames

This was also another recent thread about it

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/3882393

ventureuk

jimjames wrote: »

This was also another recent thread about it

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/3882393

You're right, why didn't my eyes see that, been studying solar info on the computer for so long now this evening they've given up.

WestonDave

I was reading about this elsewhere - there appears to be a grey area in the 30 days notification requirement over the jubilee holiday, because the 30 days have to be days when Parliament is sitting. Apparently one house may be sitting which might mean those 2 days can count, or they might not.

rogerblack

The current rate of installs is very low - in the first couple of weeks of May - a total of about 2500 installs happened.
About half of the average since the scheme began.

The estimated installation rate by the government was considerably higher for this period, and this presumably gives them a little wiggle-room with the budget.

WestonDave

Having had mine go live this week, the most common reaction from people has been to ask "So is it still worth doing then?" - clearly with all the fuss last year, the court case and the cut in rates, confidence has almost entirely evaporated. I suspect if you surveyed opinion the % that thought the whole thing stopped being worthwhile when the 43p rate went would be very high.

It probably makes sense to pause whilst the message gets around that the FiT rates will be managed downwards in order to maintain sensible rather than excessive returns. That said it doesn't help predictability if previously announced dates are allowed to slip - we don't really need another December style gold rush building up so the cut has to be harder when it comes.

Martyn1981

It's all getting interesting again.

I think the 21p works out very well, but as Dave says, most people have probably lost faith, and aren't aware of the prices and hence the returns.

I'm looking quite seriously at a system for my Aunt. I'd given up, as the house she hopes to buy, probably won't be sorted for a few more months. But if there is a delay, then it all might just workout again.

The absolutely crucial factor in it now though, is the size of the system. At 1.5 the cost is too high, but after that the price just falls (sorry, bad explanation, but in relation to total costs), as it only goes up £200 to £225 per panel (250W to 265W).

In fact the size of the system is now so important (as I see it) that the best system I've been able to design would actually be 3.2 ESE plus 2.1 WNW. Sunny Design wasn't 100% happy with a SB4000TL (1 panel too many), but seemed positively overjoyed with a SB5000TL.

The rate of return at 17p on the 5.3 system, is slightly better (even with the WNW factor) than the return on the 3.2 system at 21p. Plus of course, it brings into play a better day long generation, and crucially some late afternoon / evening generation. Obviously, the only reason it works this way, is because as you chuck more panels at it, you dilute the high base/fixed costs.

For anyone that is curious, the PVGIS estimates are for 805kWh/kWp pa on ESE, and 679kWh/kWp pa WNW.

I'm wondering now if large E&W roofs may have benefits over the normal 'must be SE to SW roofs'? You could of course do the same with a South roof ie put panels on the North roof (if not too steep), but as they'd generate at the same time, you might end up butting heads with the DNO.

Most people new to PV probably wouldn't think this far into the subject, and would not therefore realise quite what the potential might be - if you play around with the options enough.

Sorry for the long post, more of a thought exercise, as the panel percentage of total costs factor has now swung the other way. I think!

Mart.

WestonDave

You make a good point about prices Martyn - I think the cut in FiT's has gone home into peoples thoughts but the concept of a 4kWp system for sub £8k really isn't on peoples radar.

I can see your proposed set up having some legs - for what its worth my SW/SE split was running from 05:40 to 20:40 on Wednesday - albeit pretty thin pickings at the ends, so there is potential there certainly on the longer days to stretch the alignments round a bit. The trouble is that as the days get shorter, you might not get any direct sun on the WNW panels and the ESE ones are on a fairly short time before the sun dips below the horizon so your generating days might be longer but your year shorter.

Martyn1981

Hiya Dave, my systems (total 3.6) are both ESE, so on these nice May days, they are hitting baseload (150W) around 6am. Today, not great but pleasant morning and 1.8kW by 7am. They drop off after 3pm BST, but will generate upto 800W (more like 450W) till 7pm or later. Obviously, you have to work with what you've got!

The roof on the house my Aunt may get, has a bay roof in the middle of the WNW roof, otherwise it would actually work out fractionally better to put 3.2 on both roofs, as the 5000TL (according to Sunny Design) still gets a 100% score.

It's unfair for me to judge the quotes and break them down to much, but I'm sensing approx £3.5k plus panels, on the figures I've found. Hence why I think the better returns, and simple logic of systems now, is to maximise panels, within DNO limits, in order to dilute that £3.5k.

Sorry to bore, but sticking with numbers, same location, due south PVGIS climate is 908kWh/kWp pa, so maxing out a South roof (if there was one) with a 3.2kWp system would yield approx 2,905kWh's. The 5.3kWp ESE/WNW would yield approx 4,002kWh's for approx £2k more. Not sure if I'm explaining this well, but hopefully you can see how slapping on more panels, as they get cheaper, starts to redress the balance of not having an 'ideal' South facing roof?

Edit: Back on topic, I think there is a lot of room for people to install on the 21p tariff, if they do the numbers and haven't given up yet. But, whilst the 16.5p should still work for some locations, I think it's just too far a jump, too soon. I think the industry and peoples confidence needs a few more months to start up again, and then maybe a drop to 18p around October depending on the take up rate. A suck it and see approach, perhaps!

Mart.