No Base Rate rise potentially till end of 2013

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

No idea, you said the UK was going to be like Japan.

Are you talking about a different Country that is a massive exporter and manufacturerer because the last time I looked there was only one country called Japan.

You do realise when people talk about Japan, on a base rate thread, they are not suggesting we are all going to turn Japanese and start eating puffer and fermented fish, don't you?

Me thinks you do, and are just being obtuse for the "crack" of it. Whatever keeps you happy I guess.

crash123

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You do realise when people talk about Japan, on a base rate thread, they are not suggesting we are all going to turn Japanese and start eating puffer and fermented fish, don't you?

Me thinks you do, and are just being obtuse for the "crack" of it. Whatever keeps you happy I guess.

Thank you Graham.
Haven`t houseprices been declining there for 20 years and still going in the right/wrong direction depending on your stance on houseprices.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You do realise when people talk about Japan, on a base rate thread, they are not suggesting we are all going to turn Japanese and start eating puffer and fermented fish, don't you?

Me thinks you do, and are just being obtuse for the "crack" of it. Whatever keeps you happy I guess.

No Japan is Japan, you've obviously taken the most negative economic factors highlighted and frothed all over them. I guess that does make you happy.

Whatever keeps you happy I guess.

Or then again you may not be understanding it all very well... No wait.

Linton

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Getting better, in terms of the thread, would be seeing an interest rate increase.

I highly doubt an increase in interest rates is going to see a higher availiability of mortgages. More people would be struggling with the mortgages already out there, and banks would have to cope with that.

Though I'd be interested as to why you think differently?

We could see higher availability of mortgages BEFORE an interest rate increase. I am feeling more confident every month that passes that we will simply end up following Japan. Been criticised many times before now for saying this, but the critism seems to be dropping back as the months pass.

Interest rates will rise only when the current economic problems are resolved. Money that is at the moment going to shore up the banks' reserves will become available for lending. Also when the economic situation improves employment and wages will increase. People will be more confident about the future and potential FTBers more keen to enter the housing market.

Add to this the figures of new house construction (approx 100,000 per year), the rate of new household formation (approx 200,000 per year) and the increase in under-occupied homes as the population ages what happens?

Looks like a fine recipe for further house price rises to me.

Linton

paulmapp8306 wrote: »

Tosh.

As a FTB, and going through my purchase now - the high deposit has never been the issue - its the house price itself thats been the issue.

You can save for a deposit - sure that takes time over a small deposit BUT it really doesnt matter how much of a deposit you need if you cant afford the repayments due to high cost.

I saved a 20% deposit - which is fine BUT I could only get on the ladder due to prices being relatively affordable. Ultimately my budget allows for £x in payments (allowing some for interest rate rises) and I would have needed a deposit to make up the rest of the purchase price. I house prices were higher, Id have needed a bigger deposit to afford the house regardless of how much of a deposit i actually needed.

Despite getting on the ladder myself - I still believe house prices are too high for most to afford even is 100% BTLs were available.

You were one of the lucky (or prudent) few. Clearly in a minority.

Yes of course house prices are too high for most to afford - there are too few houses for most to have one each. With restricted supply house prices must be such that only the richest N potential buyers can afford to buy the N houses available. Congratulations on being one of the N.

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

No Japan is Japan, you've obviously taken the most negative economic factors highlighted and frothed all over them. I guess that does make you happy.

Whatever keeps you happy I guess.

Or then again you may not be understanding it all very well... No wait.

Right....so no one can say "were going down the Japan route" then? Everyone will be wrong, unless we do actually become Japan, in every single sense, culturally included?

Always seems to be you with the issue, others just get on with it and discuss what's stated.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Right....so no one can say "were going down the Japan route" then?

You can say and do what you like but if i agreed with you we would both be wrong...

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

You can say and do what you like but if i agreed with you we would both be wrong...

So in answer to my point, you literally will find any way possible, regardless of how immature it makes you look, to find a way to disagree?

While it's good to know....you not got anything better to do? Seriously?

Thrugelmir

Linton wrote: »

Interest rates will rise only when the current economic problems are resolved. Money that is at the moment going to shore up the banks' reserves will become available for lending.

How are banks going to expand lending if they've got to increase capital reserves?

As they are not making high enough after tax profits (if a profit at all) and know that shareholders won't stump up for rights issues at the current time.

Far easier to deleverage, lend less. Meeting capital solvency ratios that way.

Linton

Thrugelmir wrote: »

How are banks going to expand lending if they've got to increase capital reserves?

As they are not making high enough after tax profits (if a profit at all) and know that shareholders won't stump up for rights issues at the current time.

Far easier to deleverage, lend less. Meeting capital solvency ratios that way.

The scenario was once the banks and everything else is sorted out. Until then, yes I agree with you. But until then the people waiting for interest rates to increase are going to be disappointed.