Pound v Euro

missile

Degenerate wrote: »

Recently? You evidently haven't been watching very closely. The pound bottomed out at €1.02 in January 2009. Since then it has bumped around mostly in a range between €1.12 and €1.24, there is no way you could describe it as weakening steadily.

Buying in at €1.68 still puts you well ahead, you could have made greater gains if you'd sold at the right time instead of holding, but if you continue to hold it could turn to a loss..

No need to flame dude. I posted this topic to stimulate sensible discussion. :A

Like any "investment" it could only become a "loss" if and when I choose to sell. Never buy at the top or sell at the bottom of the market. The problem is guessing where we are at.

IMHO there have been fluctuations up and down but there can be no doubt that underlying trend over the last 10 years has been down. FYI, in 2009 currency exchange "experts" advised sell euros before the £ got any weaker :rotfl:.

The pound vs the Euro remains undervalued in Purchasing Power Parity terms, as it has been since late 2008

Where do you get that opinion from?

pqrdef

In the medium term, the euro will fall against the rest of the world because it's overpriced, and the pound will fall against the rest of the world because that's what it does.

Which will fall furthest and fastest, who knows. Buy yuan or dollars or Swiss francs or Norwegian wotsits or something.

In the long term, never bet on sterling.

missile

pqrdef wrote: »

In the medium term, the euro will fall against the rest of the world because it's overpriced, and the pound will fall against the rest of the world because that's what it does....

That pretty much sums up my view. Heads I lose and tails I may lose even more

Graham_Devon

missile wrote: »

That pretty much sums up my view. Heads I lose and tails I may lose even more

Just like the rest of us.

However, you appear to be in the fortunate boat to have more to lose in the first place.

missile

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Just like the rest of us.

However, you appear to be in the fortunate boat to have more to lose in the first place.

I am very fortunate to have made some money but you cannot buy good health and for that I would gladly trade everything I own.

Swafe

Change it to pounds asap and when Greece gets kicked out and it all settles down, maybe transfer back, but it seems almost inevitable at the current moment and theres only one way the euro will go in the short term

CLAPTON

Swafe wrote: »

Change it to pounds asap and when Greece gets kicked out and it all settles down, maybe transfer back, but it seems almost inevitable at the current moment and theres only one way the euro will go in the short term

why don't the masters of the universe know this too?

mcfisco

missile wrote: »

I am very fortunate to have made some money but you cannot buy good health and for that I would gladly trade everything I own.

Too true missile, too true

pqrdef

CLAPTON wrote: »

why don't the masters of the universe know this too?

They've got it written into their constitution that the Deutschmark (or whatever they're calling it now) shall not decline in value.

Degenerate

missile wrote: »

IMHO there have been fluctuations up and down but there can be no doubt that underlying trend over the last 10 years has been down.

You can define the "trend" in any direction you want if you base your conclusion on two arbitrary points in time like you just did. If one studies the actual trend, it clearly was slowly appreciating from mid 2004 (where my data starts) until mid 2007, heavily depreciated from then until early 2009, then began to slowly appreciate again.

FYI, in 2009 currency exchange "experts" advised sell euros before the £ got any weaker :rotfl:.

You seem rather confused, if one knew the pound was going to get weaker it would make sense to buy euros, not sell.

Where do you get that opinion from?

Purchasing Power Parity is not an opinion, it's a measurable statistic:

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?datasetcode=SNA_TABLE4

And I will correct myself, after years of under-valuation it appears that it finally tipped into positive territory within the last couple of weeks. Most recent PPP data suggests fair valuation around £1 = €1.21