Good time to buy in Dublin?

nollag2006

With the property market collapse over there, Dublin house prices are down 70% in many parts of the city.

I was looking at Allsops' latest property catalogue for Ireland, and there were some real bargains there.

This tenanted flat, if it sells for the reserve price of €60k, offers a rental yield of 14%:
http://www.auction.co.uk/irish/LotDetails.asp?A=780&MP=24&ID=780000010&S=C&O=A

You cant really beat that, for a yield.

House prices are now flattening out over there too:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-26/irish-house-prices-halt-decline-for-first-time-since-august-2010.html

I cant imagine that house prices will rise much over the next year or two, but the Irish are a resiliant lot and so I'd say that house prices there (as in London) will be quite a bit higher than they are now.

The one thing that mitigates against this is the weakness of Sterling. So long as the BOE doesnt meddle with any more QE, the pound should strengthen a bit against the euro.

So I may hold off for a while ... oh, and the fact that we are upsizing the family home in Richmond now will also mean that I wont have too much disposable income for a while.

:rotfl:

Would welcome your thoughts.

macaque_2

nollag2006 wrote: »

With the property market collapse over there, Dublin house prices are down 70% in many parts of the city.

A 70% club tie is in the post.

Loughton_Monkey

nollag2006 wrote: »

.... offers a rental yield of 14%:

Would welcome your thoughts.

Yield only applies until November. So who's to say current rent is a rip off, and you'll only be able to get half that from any new tenant?

Are you happy to invest directly in a foreign country?

What view do you have on the value of € against £ in the medium term?

macaque wrote: »

A 70% club tie is in the post.

OK. You've finally realised that your 70% club tie is obsolete, and to wear it in this country would make you a laughing stock, so you need to get rid of it.

But I think sending it in the post to innocent members of this forum is beyond the pale. Please dispose of it in a more permanent way. My advice is to burn it.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Buying in a country with empty houses equivalent to a 35 year housing supply at current population growth rates is probably a bad idea.

I'll pass, thanks.

the_flying_pig

14% seems yield far good to be true, even if the capital value is literally zero (extreme assumption) in 25 years' time that income stream, if inflation-linked, would be pretty sweet.

Generali

If you hang on for a year or so it might be a good time to buy Dublin. They might even chuck in Cork and a flitch of bacon if you haggle!

worldtraveller

Personally I'd wait until the Euro collapses and then maybe take a lookie loo!

shortchanged_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Buying in a country with empty houses equivalent to a 35 year housing supply at current population growth rates is probably a bad idea.

I'll pass, thanks.

Well seeing as you won't buy a property for rental in a country with an empty house rate at 3% where prices will only go up, when will you buy Hamish?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

shortchanged wrote: »

when will you buy Hamish?

When I find the right property that fits my criteria for BTL, in the area I want it, that will generate a yield I feel is reasonable.

So far I've been offering in the region of 5% below 2007 peak prices, but keep getting outbid by owner occupiers. Not surprising given the area I'm looking at, but there you go.

After a winter of rejected offers, it's now clear that if I want a decent property, in a decent location, it's not really possible to get one on the cheap.... So I'll need to increase my offers.

I probably won't be offering over the summer as this market is highly seasonal, so chances are it'll now be next winter before I buy another place.

But look, I'm not going to be goaded into buying the wrong house by some sock puppet on the internet, so this really is a pointless conversation for you.

the_flying_pig

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

[i will buy] When I find the right property that fits my criteria for BTL, in the area I want it, that will generate a yield I feel is reasonable...

nah, you should wait until prices start going up again [whenever that might be] then nervously sit on your hands to start with saying to yourself 'this can't be sustainable, they'll start to fall again soon', & only take the plunge once you've seen at least a decade of price increases or whatever it takes to convince you that a 'new paradigm' is at work.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

the_flying_pig wrote: »

you should wait until prices start going up again [whenever that might be] then nervously sit on your hands to start with saying to yourself 'this can't be sustainable, they'll start to fall again soon',

Well that sounds like what the crashaholic crowd have been doing for a decade or more now....

Wasn't it 2002 when the now infamous hpc founders video hit the news?:rotfl:

& only take the plunge once you've seen at least a decade of price increases or whatever it takes to convince you that a 'new paradigm' is at work.

There is no "new paradigm". Just an ongoing shortage of housing.

Speaking of which, how's your house hunting going?

I hear you've thrown in the towel and decided to buy.:)