Hometrack house price survey - March MoM up 0.2%

mr_fishbulb

Ooooh I get to post one of these reports

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/our-insight/monthly-national-house-price-survey/house-prices-rise-on-scarcity-and-london-effect

House prices rise on scarcity and London effect

Results at a glance

• House prices posted a monthly price rise for the first time in 20 months in March on the back of increased demand, activity and a scarcity of housing for sale.
• The ending of the first time buyer stamp duty holiday may have boosted demand but London, where prices rose by 0.5% - the largest monthly increase in the capital since April 2010 (0.6%) - continues to drive the national headline figure.
• The survey results reveal a clear divide in the strength of the market between southern England and the rest of the country (see figure 1). Prices rose across two fifths of the London market and a fifth of the market in the south east. Across the midlands and northern regions there were price falls.
• The time to sell averages just under three months (11.6 weeks) in the midlands and north, less than six weeks in London and 8.4 weeks across the regions of southern England. (see figure 2).
• While there was a 4.4% increase in new buyers registering with agents, compared to 18% in February, growth in demand over the last 2 months has created a momentum in market activity and sales to support firmer pricing. (see figure 3).
• The proportion of the asking price being achieved has increased to 93% up by 0.5% from January 2012. As an indicator of the strength of pricing between markets, the tightest differential is to be found in London and the south east where the percentage is over 94%. In contrast the proportion is less than 92% in the north east and north west.
• Looking ahead to the rest of the year all the evidence points to a continued firming in prices in the next few months as demand increases and supply remains suppressed.

Full report - http://www.hometrack.co.uk/hpsurvey/documents/RDHTSurveyMar2012_30032012090435_30032012103223.pdf

:j / :mad: (delete as required)

Generali

Down 1% YoY. The rate of decline is falling by their measure however.

DpchMd

The_Monthly_Housing_Market_Survey wrote: »

The national monthly housing market survey is based on a monthly survey of estate agents and surveyors across all postcode districts across England and Wales (e.g. SE5 and CB1 etc). The survey was first published in mid 2000 and the results are based on the answers to a standard questionnaire of 11 questions which has been in place since the index was first created. This approach to monitoring prices and other key market indicators is different to that employed by other published measures of house prices in that it tracks trends in areas where there are both strong and weak levels of market activity.

The questions are designed to capture a range of variables on local market conditions as well as the average price e.g. average time to sell, achieved price as % asking price, change in property listings, change in registered applicants, viewings per sale. Hometrack look to obtain a inimum of two returns for each postcode district. In some areas they obtain many more than 2 returns. The average monthly sample size is around 5,000-6,000 returns.The average price data is based on the contributor's opinion on the achievable selling price for each of four standard property types in every postcode district. The price is for a given date each month and assuming a willing seller and a reasonable marketing period while taking into account current market conditions and recent transactions.

The price data that is collected goes through a verification process and is then weighted up from postcode district level using housing stock numbers to derive an 'overall weighted average price'. The methodology means that cash buyers are implicitly included in the results. The monthly data is not seasonally adjusted.

I'm not sure how seriously we should take this report.

mr_fishbulb

DpchMd wrote: »

I'm not sure how seriously we should take this report.

It depends if it backs up your view on house prices. If it gives evidence (no matter how flawed) than house prices are doing what you want, then it's an important report. If not then it's just noise.

Yes, I have my cynical hat on today

Also we seem to take other surveys as a serious measure (LIBOR for instance).

Mr._Pricklepants

0.2% is just noise, but

Looking ahead to the rest of the year all the evidence points to a continued firming in prices in the next few months as demand increases and supply remains suppressed.

I thought the end of stamp duty holiday on FTB's and increased stamp duty on 2M+ homes would crash the market?
Brit50%, the Nostradamus of House Price trends said so.:rotfl:

Generali

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

0.2% is just noise,

Isn't that my catchphrase?

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

I thought the end of stamp duty holiday on FTB's and increased stamp duty on 2M+ homes would crash the market?
Brit50%, the Nostradamus of House Price trends said so.:rotfl:

Be careful what you wish for. What is happening to prices right now is the best likely outcome.

DpchMd

mr_fishbulb wrote: »

It depends if it backs up your view on house prices. If it gives evidence (no matter how flawed) than house prices are doing what you want, then it's an important report. If not then it's just noise.

I'm not sure what you mean.

I want the value of my house to increase/stablise so that I don't fall into negative equity when I come to sell the property.

The point I was making in my previous post was that we probably shouldn't be considering the "opinions" of "estate agents" to be a valid indicator of house prices.

Thanks for the report though, it was an interesting read.

mr_fishbulb

DpchMd wrote: »

I'm not sure what you mean.

I want the value of my house to increase/stablise so that I don't fall into negative equity when I come to sell the property.

The point I was making in my previous post was that we probably shouldn't be considering the "opinions" of "estate agents" to be a valid indicator of house prices.

Thanks for the report though, it was an interesting read.

I was being facetious because I know how rubbish the data is that this report is based on I agree with you about the opinions being not very scientific, and personally I'd put the value of this report just below even the Rightmove asking price reports.