Slump In Market is Coming - Housing Expert

CRASH_BANG_WALLOP

Trevor Kent, housing expert and former president national association of estate agents

the dude speaks 26 minutes in

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01djp50/Wake_Up_to_Money_23_03_2012/

"stamp duty on 2 million + homes WILL affect first time buyers at the bottom"

straight from the horses mouth :T

how much bear food can we take today :T

SecondLegDownIsTheBigOne

The end of the stamp duty was the last hoorah. Funny how it had to end to make any difference at all.

The next leg down is here. It looks quite steep, even I'm a bit nervous, but I love a good ride.

Graham_Devon

Hamish says no.

This isn't new though, he's just protecting his clients and his interests.

I don't understand his stance on it though. He's basically suggesting these people are using these houses as their pensions, and it's appauling they should be hit with any intervention.

He describes stamp duty as highway robery. The man is an uber VI, so these are just words from someone pee'ved off as he stands to loose out himself.

It remains to be seen how much this effects the market, but he is trying to protect his own interests ad own clients, so will use scare tactics.

mystic_trev

To be fair I should imagine he's got more to lose than most.

Kent said that he declined to pay on a point of principle, since the lettings operation in his single-office operation in Gerrards Cross is extremely modest. He holds no tenants’ deposits, collects no rents and manages no property, offering a ‘find only’ service, with multi-million pound sales being his main activity.

http://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/news_features/Shock-as-Trevor-Kent-quits-NAEA-in-protest

Still with business slumping it will give hime more time to indulge in his favourite hobby......pie eating

mr_fishbulb

If there's one thing this board has taught me over the past few years, it's that there is no such thing as a housing "expert".

sheffield_lad

mr_fishbulb wrote: »

If there's one thing this board has taught me over the past few years, it's that there is no such thing as a housing "expert".

Agreed, the only difference is as the years go by the one's who own a property have a lower and lower mortgage and the one's wanting the market to crash still won't buy lol.

CRASH_BANG_WALLOP

howee wrote: »

Agreed, the only difference is as the years go by the one's who own a property have a lower and lower mortgage and the one's wanting the market to crash still won't buy lol.

whats that rubbish got to do with the radio interview dude?

julieq

Oh good, the next leg down has now actually started has it? So any of the bears care to predict how far down it will go and how long it will last? Then we can bookmark the thread and come back in a few months for a giggle.

Stamp duty is an annoyance for a first time buyer, not a major factor in a purchase decision. If you're already saving 25%, 1% is not a major additional factor, and the maximum effect that has on prices in itself is going to be 1%. It's hardly going to trigger a long term slide, there is simply no long term effect that could do that. Do the bears honestly think that a slight increase in costs is going to make prospective purchasers just give up? What chain of cause and effect do they think is operating? The holiday will have brought forward a few transactions which will have created a little froth, but that's all.

I will confidently predict that this change will have had no discernible effect on the market in 6 months time, because the housing market is driven by an increasing supply side shortage. Rents will be rising, purchase prices will be drifting upwards, confidence will be returning in the general economy.

SecondLegDownIsTheBigOne

The next leg down is here.

CRASH_BANG_WALLOP

julieq wrote: »

Oh good, the next leg down has now actually started has it? So any of the bears care to predict how far down it will go and how long it will last? Then we can bookmark the thread and come back in a few months for a giggle.

Stamp duty is an annoyance for a first time buyer, not a major factor in a purchase decision. If you're already saving 25%, 1% is not a major additional factor, and the maximum effect that has on prices in itself is going to be 1%. It's hardly going to trigger a long term slide, there is simply no long term effect that could do that. Do the bears honestly think that a slight increase in costs is going to make prospective purchasers just give up? What chain of cause and effect do they think is operating? The holiday will have brought forward a few transactions which will have created a little froth, but that's all.

I will confidently predict that this change will have had no discernible effect on the market in 6 months time, because the housing market is driven by an increasing supply side shortage. Rents will be rising, purchase prices will be drifting upwards, confidence will be returning in the general economy.

every estate agent dude and his dog talk about stamp duty. then we have you talking about confidence returing to the economy, how come?

many bulls kept saying in jan that in 6 months recovery would be well underway - but hold the papers! this week we have the news that uk has a record number of empty shops, government has borrowed twice as expected in feb. the consumer index has fallen again. big retailers warning we are in for a tough year. economist dudes telling us the slaes figures from jan have fallen to 0.3% and the spending recovery isnt going to happen.

but please do tell why the economy is suddenly going to recover

julieq

Tell you what dude, I'm not interested in what estate agents think. I'm interested in how a one off 1% increase in costs is going to trigger a market slide.

And you don't know, do you dude? You just blather on about high street retailers and some small indicators that maybe trade is moving out of the high street and going online, and just about nothing the doom and gloom dudes prophesy ever actually happens.

And tell you what dude, why don't you find me some of these bulls who were saying a recovery would be well underway in 6 months from Jan? Because I certainly didn't see any. What I'm on record as saying is that general confidence would be returning by Spring (it is) and that we'd see a 3-4% YoY increase from last December as first time buyers start getting past the deposit savings bar and banks relax lending restrictions.

So stuff that in your bong and smoke it dude.