Zoopla worried :)

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

brit1234 wrote: »

I strongly believe it will affect the London distortions affecting the national figures on both price and transaction levels. Anyone who disagrees can they state why?

Sure.

There are no London distortions affecting the national figures, any more than there are Northern Ireland or North of England distortions affecting the national figures.

None of the major three indices listed in your sig use a simple average to calculate average prices.

Instead, they all use the "typical" three bedroom houses, so a sale of a 7 bedroom mansion in London is irrelevant to them, and the sale of these £2,000,000 houses will already be excluded.

Furthermore they individually calculate the prices for different regions and not only is the price movement for those individual regions and indeed in many cases local areas available, it is also volume weighted and combined to calculate the national average.

When you look up LR or NW or HF data for the midlands, or Wales, or the East there is absolutely NO skew from London.

Now, I understand from a propaganda perspective why you think this will help, but in reality it will make no difference.

You could argue that if you remove London from the Haliwide equation, the average price will fall. Just as you could argue that if you remove Northern Ireland (not even mainland UK !!!!!!) from the Haliwide equation, the average price would soar.

But you can't argue that fewer sales of London mansions will change anything, because they're already irrelevant to the stats.

Surely less higher level transactions will affect averages down in favour of the lower end of the market.

No.

The indices already mix adjust to remove any such bias.

Surely ontop of that it will reduce prices.

Back to clutching at straws there Brit.

We have already seen foreign money fall by over 50% in the last 9 months to buy properties.

And yet there has been no fall in house prices.

Graham_Devon

Estate Agents are in a bit of a flap about it too...

But estate agents warned the move could hit all homeowners as London - where eight out of ten £2million properties are found - has been key in supporting the whole market by recording consistent price growth due to strong overseas buyer interest.

Peter Rollings, chief executive of estate agent Marsh and Parsons, said: 'Not only will this policy disproportionately target London, where house prices are in a league of their own, it risks killing the goose that lays the golden egg.

'With the property market still far from healthy, we need to see the Government supporting activity at all levels, rather adding yet another tax burden.'

The National Association of Estate Agents president Wendy Evans-Scott said: 'To reinvigorate this struggling market will require specific stimulus across the entire housing spectrum to help people buy and sell homes, not further penalties on those able to do so.'

And former NAEA president Trevor Kent said every homeowner would be hit by the new top-end tax, with 70 per cent of first-time buyers relying on the progression of a 'chain' of sales.

He said: 'Higher stamp duty always results in property price pressure, in this scenario there is little doubt that prices will fall across the board. Some may think 'great', but mortgage lenders will not - they rely on the expectation of a gentle long-term rise to safeguard their loans.'

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

But you can't argue that fewer sales of London mansions will change anything, because they're already irrelevant to the stats.

That's absolute nonsense Hamish, sorry.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

And former NAEA president Trevor Kent said every homeowner would be hit by the new top-end tax, with 70 per cent of first-time buyers relying on the progression of a 'chain' of sales.

They're a bit dim these lot, aren't they?

I'd be prepared to bet 99.9% of chains do not involve a £2,000,000 house at the top.

JonnyBravo

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Of course it will effect the averages, there is no way to argue against it.

Your £2.2m pad will likely have to be reduced to £1.99m on offer.

I don't think the window will be that big.

£1.99m @ 5% = c.£100k
£2.00m @ 7% = £140k
£2.20m @ 7% = £154k

Suggests that those between £2m and £2.1m will probably come down although a few will go up to try to hoodwink buyers, but I'll bet most between £2.1m and £2.2m stay where they are (or even go up to create breathing space).
This kind of "no go zone" exists around all the bands.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

How much it will effect averages though is another question. I don't personally believe that much.

Does put a (very high) lid on prices in London however.

Yes I'm not sure how much it will affect the averages but I'll bet very little.
Not sure how it will put any kind of lid on prices.
The further you get away from £2m the more irrelevant the sums involved must be to anyone affected.

CRASH_BANG_WALLOP

great news :beer: estate agent dudes in a flop too. I will take their word for it as they work in the industry

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

That's absolute nonsense Hamish, sorry.

I'm sorry, but clearly you don't understand how mix adjustment works.

No matter how often it's explained.:(

A mansion in London has no bearing on the "typical" 3 bedroom house price as used by the major indices.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I'm sorry, but clearly you don't understand how mix adjustment works.

No matter how often it's explained.:(

A mansion in London has no bearing on the "typical" 3 bedroom house price as used by the major indices.

I do understand how it works, but suggesting these houses are irrelevant, followed up by the word "mix adjustment" just shows how clueless you are.

brit1234

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Estate Agents are in a bit of a flap about it too...

Estate agents have warned a stamp duty raid on £2 million homes could hit all homeowners and buyers by triggering a slowdown in the areas of the property market which have been vital to supporting prices.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/estate-agents-warn-that-stamp-duty-raid-could-hit-all-homeowners-7580336.html

Similar story, another source. Everyone knows London was masking the falls, time to remove the cover.:beer:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I do understand how it works, but suggesting these houses are irrelevant, followed up by the word "mix adjustment" just shows how clueless you are.

Oh alright then Graham, go ahead and explain how you think it works.