Renewables: "talking 'bout my generation"

frozen_wastes

April Statistics:
1.04MWh generated, or 116 O's.  It's a good amount!  
Number of Five-O days:  7

Best Day: 25th April: 51.59 kWh or 5.75 O's.
Worst Day: 26th April, 8.87kWh or 0.96 O's

I'm feeling very chuffed with the results.  I do a deeper dive into all my data on my youtube video, and present some thoughts about batteries using the data I've acquired so far, and I consider what the future of electricity price inflation might look like:
https://youtu.be/wXKR5ypKeKI

EVandPV

Slow start to May, just 2.86 O's. 

Oscargrouch

Not Good, but the best day this Month..3.68 O's     

legoman62

3,1 O's here today😁

QrizB

Sunshine today was a bit patchy but generation was helped hugely by a couple of hours of mostly clear skies early in the afternoon.

10.07kWh, 3.70 O's

At time my minim was claiming that PV generation exceeded the rating of the inverter, which is unusual (to say the least).

Martyn1981

frozen_wastes said:

April Statistics:
1.04MWh generated, or 116 O's.  It's a good amount!  
Number of Five-O days:  7

Best Day: 25th April: 51.59 kWh or 5.75 O's.
Worst Day: 26th April, 8.87kWh or 0.96 O's

I'm feeling very chuffed with the results.  I do a deeper dive into all my data on my youtube video, and present some thoughts about batteries using the data I've acquired so far, and I consider what the future of electricity price inflation might look like:
https://youtu.be/wXKR5ypKeKI

Hiya, interesting vid, but can I make some comments on leccy price inflation. This has been a popular topic on here for a decade or more, but the high prices still don't seem to have arrived. We used to talk about prices around 12p, now perhaps 15p (before standing charges), so a 33% rise in 10yrs. And it's important to note that that period contained the high subsidies for wind and PV, paid via part of the green tariff. So those increases are baked in, till they fall off as the subsidy periods end. We also have the one off cost of moving away from coal, and its falsely low price (as it doesn't account for externalities).

The only big subsidy to come is HPC, probably about £25pa / household, as RE contracts are now close to wholesale prices (£40/MWh v's £30/MWh), down from the early £160/MWh contracts that are already in our bills. [Of course, most of these factors will have a large impact in about 10yrs time, fingers crossed positive, but perhaps outside of a reasonable time period for your calculations, where this decade is more important to your calculations.]

We also need to consider the NAO estimates of future wholesale prices have been steadily revised down from around £80/MWh in 2030(ish) to about £40/MWh, as RE costs tumbled.

Also you suggest that prices will rise as demand rises, which is true, but only in a supply demand situation where supply doesn't rise, and it will, this is a large profitable business, so if people want more leccy, companies will want to supply/sell more.

But crucially, we also need to separate wholesale prices, which will hopefully fall, and the rising cost of supply management as we increase intermittent generation, from retail prices (3-4x higher), which (other than subsidy costs) should only rise in line with normal UK inflation.

Please don't think I'm saying that we won't see inflation, but it's important to note the factors that impacted prices last decade, and how, hopefully (that could be my mistake) normal supply and demand economics will now apply. We also have to consider how better demand management, from smart chargers, storage, TOU tariffs etc, might reduce the cost to DNO's of strengthing their distribution network, by spreading demand out more evenly, since their networks are already built to meet evening peak demand, giving them the ability already to massively increase total supply, so long as the peak doesn't rise.

On the other hand, we may see prices rise dramatically, as I'm not exactly confident that leccy suppliers (not generators) have our best interests at heart ..... 

Sorry for the waffle, and thread divergence, perhaps an inflation thread would be interesting as we can discuss all these factors, and what good and bad impacts are on their way?

legoman62

3.25 O's here today🤔

Oscargrouch

Close, but not enough 4.84 O's      

EVandPV

Another par for the day, 3.66 O's.

QrizB

Today was too cloudy for a good solar output, we even had a few spots of rain.

8.15kWh, 2.996 O's (I should round up to three, I guess   )

Tomorrow's forecast isn't looking great either; rain and wind gusting to 49mph!