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National Counties BS mortgage

i'm coming to end of my tracker mortgage with NCBS. I've got choice of 3 yr tracker at base +2.69%(3 yrs) or SVR -1.7%(2.99% , 5yrs). i fancy the discount because its longer term. Obviously I'm concerned at the SVR hikes. I thought thye followed base rate more or less. I haqvent seen anything about NCBS doing a hike. Their rate is 4.69% so not low. Anyone got any news on NCBS? thanks.
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