Frisby’s Bulls And Bears - Housing, Gold, Economy

mystic_trev

I assume that's the same Jonathan Davis who forecast House prices to have dropped by 40% to 50% by 2011?

RenovationMan

mystic_trev wrote: »

I assume that's the same Jonathan Davis who forecast House prices to have dropped by 40% to 50% by 2011?

I went onto his website and the standard of English in his monthly newsletters was appalling. Does anyone really trust this self-publicizing self-agrandizing fool with their hard-earned cash?

Really?!!? :eek:

StevieJ

What did JD say, we are Japanese now, low interest rates will be with us for many years, I could hear Rennovation man cheering from here

chucknorris

StevieJ wrote: »

What did JD say, we are Japanese now, low interest rates will be with us for many years, I could hear Rennovation man cheering from here

No that was me cheering (shame about the reliability of the source though)

RenovationMan

StevieJ wrote: »

What did JD say, we are Japanese now, low interest rates will be with us for many years, I could hear Rennovation man cheering from here

Not if JD was saying it! Based on the credibility of his past predictions, I'm now expecting double digit BoE rates within weeks! :eek:;)

Pimperne1

He actually said that with interest rates so low it was a surprise that house prices had not jumped around 30%, although I don't remember him ever predicting such a rise - as noted previously JD only predicts house price falls (and pretty big ones at that). In October 2010, when we were already on low interest rates (and forecast to be on them for a considerable period) JD was predicting falls of between 40-50% between 2007 and 2013.

RenovationMan

Pimperne1 wrote: »

He actually said that with interest rates so low it was a surprise that house prices had not jumped around 30%, although I don't remember him ever predicting such a rise - as noted previously JD only predicts house price falls (and pretty big ones at that). In October 2010, when we were already on low interest rates (and forecast to be on them for a considerable period) JD was predicting falls of between 40-50% between 2007 and 2013.

According to his website, he is predicting 10% falls in 2012.

Pimperne1

RenovationMan wrote: »

According to his website, he is predicting 10% falls in 2012.

That is inconsistent with what he said in the clip then, ie he was surprised that prices hadn't increased 30% considering that borrowing was so cheap - does he think that the next 10 months are going to see an extremely large rise in the cost of borrowing that would change his +30% to a -10%. He really is one of the least capable house price predictors on the web.

brit1234

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Brit, leaving all the silliness about houseprices aside, I'm concerned about your apparently flip-flop investing strategy. You seem to be making decisions based on internet fads. It seems like you piled into precious metals before when they were close to their high, and now you're thinking of selling out of them :question:(no I am not)(probably at a loss) and buying equities because someone on the internet says it might be a good idea. :question:(no I don't, I have a mixed isa portfolio) Your "google $500 silver" quote worries me as that is a ridiculous internet story based on a period of time a couple of weeks long when then price of silver had been massively manipulated (i mean actually manipulated, not supposedly supressed according to internet conspiracy theorists).

I appreciate that I am just someone on the internet, but don't you think it would be more sensible to preserve your house deposit in a traditional savings account (I have, with easy access and the best monthly interest for flexibility)that to pursue strategies fraught with short term risk which may lead to you losing a significant amount of your capital.

If you're thinking of buying in the short to medium term (i.e. <5 years) and you cannot afford to lose a significant % of your capital, then it is more sensible to stay in cash despite the poor returns.

If your strategy is to use the money to buy the house, as long as the net interest rate is greater than or similar to house price inflation then you're not losing anything by doing this.

It might help you to read the savings & investment boards, there are loads of thread of there where people recommend basic reading for investing. No offence, but I think it might help you to read something more mainstream.

You got it wrong. I have a central pool of money close to £55k which is my deposit and costs. That money is in a high interest account on the best available rates with monthly interest so I am flexible.

I have separate investments in Gold and Silver which I won't sell and are long term investments. With disposable cash which I have a good amount due to cheap rent I can buy more in lulls. Maybe one day cash it in the distant future to pay down any mortgage.

The shares are easier to play with and over the last few years I have been buying low and selling high, then ploughing that into my deposit. We have another temporary share high at the moment, so it is a good selling opportunity. Then again the disposable income and overtime can buy more shares again in the lulls. The speed to sell is quick to get those gains. I also buy shares on a monthly basis, so I never get the bottom rate or never get the absolute top rate but selling roughly at the perceived top I can make a good return on what I purchased them for.


Not very risky and seems to be working. At the same time I learn more about sector.

SecondLegDownIsTheBigOne

RenovationMan wrote: »

I went [STRIKE]on[/STRIKE]to his website and the standard of English in his monthly newsletters [STRIKE]was[/STRIKE] is appalling. Does anyone really trust this self-[STRIKE]publicizing[/STRIKE]publicising self-[STRIKE]agrandizing[/STRIKE]aggrandising fool with their hard-earned cash?

Really?[STRIKE]!!?[/STRIKE] :eek:

..............

:eek:

RenovationMan accusing others of self-aggrandisement ...