There is two sides to this story... repossessions

Rinoa

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

The bits I picked up on is the fact that 4x times the normal are in what is classed as serious arrears, 800,000 homeowners are having serious debt problems, and with 2012 suspected to get worse and this is all with interest rates at record lows you need to look a bit deeper.

The figures you quote are from PPR, a company whose business is buying up repossessed homes.

PPR state that 2% of arrears represent 800,000 homebuyers. But hang on a minute, that would put the total number of homeowners at 40,000,000. In reality there are only 25,000,000 households in the UK, and only 70% of those are owner occupiers. Many of those will of course be mortgage free.

CML put the number of those 3 month in arrears at 2% and forecast 180,000 will be in arrears at the end of the year. That's a lot different to 800,000.

Nor is 2% 4 times the normal average, which in reality is about 1 to 1.5% since 1999

Here are the CML stats if you really want to look deeper.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3142

DervProf

Rinoa wrote: »

PPR state that 2% of arrears represent 800,000 homebuyers.

No they don't.

Read the article.

nicko33

"However, the total number of properties taken back from their buyers in 2011 was 36,200, the lowest annual total since the credit crisis began in 2007."

So the 2011 repossession rate (after the 5% increase from 2010) is 0.15% (of 25m households)

nicko33

DervProf wrote: »

No they don't.

Read the article.

What does this mean then?

But Nick Hopkinson, director of PPR Estates property group, on today’s CML buy-to-let and arrears/possession data: “Long term arrears amongst mortgaged homeowners remain dangerously high at over 2pc of all households.
“This is over four times the long running average amount of homeowners in arrears and indicates that there are more than 800,000 homebuyers struggling with debts despite nearly three years of record low interest rates.

DervProf

nicko33 wrote: »

What does this mean then?

That 800,000 homebuyers are struggling with debts.

2% of homebuyers are in long term arrears.

julieq

Graham_Devon wrote: »

While I disagree with both of you, his whole point was the look a little deeper.

You've then gone on to disregard his point about looking deeper based on looking only at the headline data.

As Johnny said the other day, which was completely true, we'll look at what we want to look at, and nothing more.

Graham dear, pretty much all I do is look deeper than the headlines. I've explained at least 3 times this week that even if you allow for the existence of "props" and posit massive increases in repossessions, the totals are still insignificant in terms of the total numbers. 11 million mortgages, about £1T cumulative total, 36,000 repossessions. That is about as far behind the headlines as you can get. Double repossessions and it's still nothing much as part of the total.

nicko33

DervProf wrote: »

That 800,000 homebuyers are struggling with debts.

2% of homebuyers are in long term arrears.

so how does the 2% indicate 800,000 ?
"and indicates that there are more than 800,000 homebuyers struggling with debts"

are you saying there is no link at all between the 2% and the 800,000?

Rinoa

nicko33 wrote: »

so how does the 2% indicate 800,000 ?
"and indicates that there are more than 800,000 homebuyers struggling with debts"

are you saying there is no link at all between the 2% and the 800,000?

Don't think Derv will have an answer to that. It's clear they are claiming the 800,000 are the same people who are in arrears.

But we know CML put this figure at only 180,000.

DervProf

Rinoa wrote: »

Don't think Derv will have an answer to that. It's clear they are claiming the 800,000 are the same people who are in arrears.

But we know CML put this figure at only 180,000.

It is clear that Nick Hopkinson is commenting on the CML figures.

"But Nick Hopkinson, director of PPR Estates property group, on today’s CML buy-to-let and arrears/possession data: “Long term arrears amongst mortgaged homeowners remain dangerously high at over 2pc of all households".


“This is over four times the long running average amount of homeowners in arrears and indicates that there are more than 800,000 homebuyers struggling with debts."

2% of homebuyers in arrears (as you stated earlier).

800K homebuyers struggling with monthly bills.

He did not state that 800k are in arrears.

IronWolf

julieq wrote: »

Erm, repossession figures are what they are, i.e. low and insignificant as a proportion of the total. It's up to the lender to manage their lending, but EVEN if you treble or quadruple repossessions they don't get up to a very large percentage of the total.

Blogs in papers who have an agenda don't constitute data.

Percentage of what? Total households? That's meaningless.

A more relevant figure would be % of households currently on the market.