Solar installation rate.

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

True, and from what I've read and heard, they were particularly worried about the EPC C rating proposal. So changing it to D (which I believe can include the gains from the proposed PV) has allayed a lot of those concerns.

I wonder how long the industry will take to get back to normal after all the recent silliness, with massive peak then massive trough?

Mart.

Hi

I really can't see where there would be any undue effect on the market resulting from the FiT change.

The market for this kind of product offering will always be slow at the beginning of the year unless there is an external influence. The influence for this year was to be the planned FiT reduction therefore the installers were expecting to be busy pre-change anyway, so all that the December FiT reduction really achieved was a shifting of demand, mainly from those already considering installations pre-April 2012, likely adding only a small number of extra contracts above what was expected. This must be considered alongside the associated reduction in system prices, which is likely to stimulate more product demand than the reduction in FiTs has stemmed ....

Overall, I would hope that the changes would be seen as being a necessary step by the majority of the industry, especially the installers taking a long term strategic view of their businesses, with the opportunist installers looking for quick returns being the ones currently with the most vocal viewpoints, however, as the market becomes more competitive and margins are squeezed it will be these who move-on first.

HTH
Z

don0301

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

I really can't see where there would be any undue effect on the market resulting from the FiT change.

The market for this kind of product offering will always be slow at the beginning of the year unless there is an external influence. The influence for this year was to be the planned FiT reduction therefore the installers were expecting to be busy pre-change anyway, so all that the December FiT reduction really achieved was a shifting of demand, mainly from those already considering installations pre-April 2012, likely adding only a small number of extra contracts above what was expected. This must be considered alongside the associated reduction in system prices, which is likely to stimulate more product demand than the reduction in FiTs has stemmed ....

Overall, I would hope that the changes would be seen as being a necessary step by the majority of the industry, especially the installers taking a long term strategic view of their businesses, with the opportunist installers looking for quick returns being the ones currently with the most vocal viewpoints, however, as the market becomed more competitive and margins are squeezed it will be these who move-on first.

HTH
Z

Freudian slip?

rogerblack

In the last couple of weeks, the install rate has risen markedly.
To about the level just prior to the announcement that the 43p tariff was going away.

Maybe ~7K total extra installs over the period since the announcement the government lost - till the 19th of this month.

And I notice that yesterday, the government did in fact decide to pursue the appeal.

don0301

rogerblack wrote: »

In the last couple of weeks, the install rate has risen markedly.
To about the level just prior to the announcement that the 43p tariff was going away.

Maybe ~7K total extra installs over the period since the announcement the government lost - till the 19th of this month.

And I notice that yesterday, the government did in fact decide to pursue the appeal.

imagine if they win, that would upset a few people

rogerblack

The rate continues to climb on this weeks figures - an extra 3K going onto the week ending 19 Feb, updating its level from 5K to 8K, and 11K in the most recent week.

Making some assumptions, it's probable that this latest week will be updated to 18K or so conservatively, due to things not updating instantly - so that's a total of about 25K installs to date.
I think it's likely the total may be as much as 30K since the announcement the government had lost.

The number of large installs - 10-50kW is quite noticeable too - with about an extra 10% being installed over the existing capacity in this range.

The total installed capacity over this period, if the government were to lose the court case, and all systems installed before March got the old rates would be due FIT payments of about 23 million extra a year.
Or about a pound a household a year.
(assuming that businesses pass on their operating costs to consumers of their increased electricity costs)
It will be interesting to see the rate around the end of march.

rogerblack

rogerblack wrote: »

instantly - so that's a total of about 25K installs to date.

As of the last week - looks like at least 30K, not 25k, based on the general trend of late reporting.

And this weeks 20K installations is likely to be in reality 30K, for a total of approximately 60K installations.

One truly startling factor is the number of large installations.

The highest number ever this week in the 10-50kW band, over 1K installs (in reality likely about 2000).

This takes the total in the last period to almost doubling the capacity of large installations.

We've now topped a gigawatt in installed solar, with about 250 megawatts in the last few weeks.

I do wonder how close to the allocated funding running out we are.

Martyn1981

rogerblack wrote: »

As of the last week - looks like at least 30K, not 25k, based on the general trend of late reporting.

We've now topped a gigawatt in installed solar, with about 250 megawatts in the last few weeks.

I do wonder how close to the allocated funding running out we are.

Roger, thanks.

Assuming the govt. lose the court case, and that's what I'm assuming. Then you are probably right regarding the funding. I guess they'll then have to implement their plans to lower FITs further and faster.

This has really turned into a right mess. Hope some semblance of sensibility is restored eventually.

Mart.