Prof David Mackay 2050 Pathways Calculator

jamesingram

Reading in the telegraph that Japan shut done it's last running nuclear plant the other day for regular safety check up.
All other plants shut for similar reason have as yet not been given permission by local councils to restart .
So 30% of Japan electric generation via nuclear it offline.
Germany are moving away from nuclear .
Be interesting to watch these 2 countries to see how they deal with
lack of nuclear grid input,
Nuclear ,which many internationally believe , without, we'll be in big trouble re. future energy supplies

jamesingram

http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/pathways/1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111/primary_energy_chart

Have a play with this if you'd like to sort out the UK future energy supply .

cepheus

• What is the cheapest pathway?
• Is it cheaper / how much more expensive is it to tackle climate change than to not?
Fossil fuels are cheap short term, but you tend to pay with future health costs or taxes to repair the environmental damage. Environmentalists will certainly claim it's more expensive not to tackle climate change. It depends on how climate change develops and what mitigation and adaptation technologies are successfully developed in the future. It's best to think of mitigation as an insurance policy.

These are the estimated environmental costs of coal compare to the price of the fuel itself in the US.



Natural gas can overcome many of those health and pollution problems but not climate change due to methane leakage and possible water contamination if fracking is used.

• What are the biggest costs in tackling climate change?
The overall costs once the environmental effects of climate change are allowed for are shown below. The biggest costs are on the right of this diagram, obviously its better to focus on the mitigation measures on the left first. Local photovoltaics, the darling of this board, is one of the least cost effective methods overall. I suspect the figures below are for commercial scale.




• What are the biggest sources of uncertainty in tackling climate change?
Scientifically the effect of feedbacks on the climate such as ice and clouds, but economic uncertainties are even greater since it is difficult to know what technology will emerge for both mitigation and adaptation. Algae based fuels is just one area with enormous potential, but it may never be economic on a large scale.

• Is it cheaper to be more energy efficient or to build more capacity?
Usually to be more efficient, however, the best way of all is to use and waste less, it's a win win all round. This is completely opposed to what we are told we need, economic growth.

• Is nuclear cheaper than wind or CCS?
Commercial scale wind is cheapest for low penetration in the windiest land based areas, but you can't get the locals to allow you to build. We are forced to build in less windy areas or offshore where it is expensive. Nuclear costs seem to increase yearly due to our paranoia with safety, and long term storage costs are rarely costed. There are big uncertainties due to the experimental nature of full scale CCS.

zeupater

jamesingram wrote: »

http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/pathways/1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111/primary_energy_chart

Have a play with this if you'd like to sort out the UK future energy supply .

Hi

I pretty much hate this tool .... I, like everyone else, have no magical crystal ball so everything comes down to whether the user of the tool is inherently optimistic or pessimistic .... I would say that a realist would likely be closer to the pessimistic camp, with a totally optimistic approach effectively describing the tool user as being a deluded eco-zealot.

The tool is simply a little bit of fun, specifically created in such a way as to describe a number of issues which need to be addressed ... I still see that the costing element still doesn't include or attempt to quantify either the capital expenditure or technology risk exposure, both of which need to be addressed before any pathway could realistically be considered ....

To me, it's simply an unnecessary devisive toy which only plays to those with a more 'extreme' nature and I expect that's exactly what it's designed to be .... it's really a pitty that DECC and HM Government have been drawn into believing the merits of such a 'toy' - but would anyone expect anything different, after all, a high proportion of our political elite are PPE graduates, which effectively means that they are simple 'wordsmiths', qualified to take a simple journalistic appoach and simply convey what they have been told in an authoritative, yet uncommitted, manner ....

HTH
Z