Greece...

worldtraveller

Allegedly 85.8% have agreed to participate. So, you couldn't get a sheet of [STRIKE]cigarette[/STRIKE] toilet paper between them, but maye that's because there's still a whole load of s**t on one side of it.

Next! ISDA, CSC's, CDS, legal challenges, elections, strikes, riots....

Generali

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I heard that even if the credit rating agencies do declare it a default, another body will overule this to stop insurance being triggered.

Don't know how much there is in this though, didn't quite catch the full story. Body was the ICDA or something??

Amuses me how if they do default, they switch from the "normal" ECB funding, to emergecny funding. Doesn't sound like much would change in my mind.

ISDA.

Derivatives contracts have to refer to a particular person, entity or benchmark to pay out otherwise you end up with a mass of legal action. Credit Default Swaps generally (always?) reference ISDA as the definer of default.

The big problem is going to be for Portugal, Spain and Italy now. I'll start a new thread on that though.

vivatifosi

Sky News is reporting this morning that the 85.8% participation rate has triggered Collective Action Clause.

sabretoothtigger

My biggest holdings are Spanish speaking companies. I dont think these size countries can be bought off like Greece which makes this a pointless one off

Collective Action Clause.

Under recently altered Greek law but some of the bonds were english law. But apparently is a low enough percent not to matter ?

Generali

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

My biggest holdings are Spanish speaking companies. I dont think these size countries can be bought off like Greece which makes this a pointless one off




Under recently altered Greek law but some of the bonds were english law. But apparently is a low enough percent not to matter ?

About 15% of the debt is English Law. Looking at the yields for the shiny new Greek debt (15-20%) it is unlikely that holdouts will get a cent as owners of the new debt will almost certainly face a second default unless something changes.

worldtraveller

The ISDA's European credit determinations committee is scheduled to meet at 1 PM today to rule whether a "credit event" has now taken place, that would see CDSs pay out. I wonder if any news release will be made before the markets close today?

Mrs_Bones

Question - Do the EU leaders really think this will solve things or is it just another buying of time mechanism?

The general consensus that Greece will have to default at sometime still seems to be the opinion of much of what is written in the media. Is it at all possible that things could work out for Greece. Have to say I can't see it myself. Borrowing money to pay back the interest on what you already owe doesn't seem like the greatest of plans.

Generali

worldtraveller wrote: »

The ISDA's European credit determinations committee is scheduled to meet at 1 PM today to rule whether a "credit event" has now taken place, that would see CDSs pay out. I wonder if any news release will be made before the markets close today?

I would guess they'll wait for ATHEX to close which is, from memory, a little before 3.30pm UK time as it would allow regulators to sort out any insolvencies etc before Monday am.

That's if they've made a decision in that time of course. The next obvious time to wait for is the NY close (4pm NY time???).

wotsthat

Mrs_Bones wrote: »

Question - Do the EU leaders really think this will solve things or is it just another buying of time mechanism?

I don't think anyone really thinks thinks will solve things.

It does seem though to have bought a significant amount of time. If that time isn't used by Greece (to implement the austerity plans and improve their economy) or their creditors (to ensure banks can withstand a possible future default) then a load of good money will have followed bad.

Does set quite an interesting precedent though. Look at the campaigns we've seen in the past to write off third world debt and the resistance by debt holders to do that. Yet here we have a small European country who have managed to throw 100bn on a debt bonfire and still receive further loans.

What makes me laugh is how EU officials are trying to stress that this is a 'special' for Greece. Yeah right - like Portugal isn't wondering how they can get some of their debt written off too.

Graham_Devon

worldtraveller wrote: »

The ISDA's European credit determinations committee is scheduled to meet at 1 PM today to rule whether a "credit event" has now taken place, that would see CDSs pay out. I wonder if any news release will be made before the markets close today?

And what's the betting they will conclude that a default has not taken place?

Corruption is rife before our eyes. It's simply that the corruption benefits most of us at the moment. Were living for today.

Will Ireland be that impressed at paying the full price for their debts? Will Italian people not wonder why they are being asked to pay the price, while Greece can just wipe off a chunk of money and get some more?