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Greece...

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  • Mrs_Bones
    Mrs_Bones Posts: 15,524 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Photogenic Combo Breaker
    Apparently this will be sorted out and the bailout back on in the next few hours.

    I think we could go on yo-yo back and forth like this right up the dead line of, is it 20th of March when Greece needs the bailout money to repay back.

    The main view seems to be that Europe has got Greece in a vice but is it that the right view? Most of this bailout money will not be going to help Greece the country but back to Europe banks in interest payments. If the EU doesn't pay up than it's their own banks that will be hit. It's a very large game of chicken and it just depends who will blink and run first.

    The big elephant in the room is that even if Greece meets all the measures being demanded of it, they are still not going to be able to repay back what they owe. The recession there is getting worse, there are no signs of growth. They have not even been able to meet all of the last lot of commitments they made for the last bailout. How long will the EU pour money into the pot, with no end in sight.
    [FONT=&quot]“I've learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.” ~ Maya Angelou[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    edited 15 February 2012 at 1:19PM
    Mrs_Bones wrote: »

    The main view seems to be that Europe has got Greece in a vice but is it that the right view? Most of this bailout money will not be going to help Greece the country but back to Europe banks in interest payments. If the EU doesn't pay up than it's their own banks that will be hit. It's a very large game of chicken and it just depends who will blink and run first.

    On that note, apparently this is how the Greek Bailout money will be used.

    20111108_GREbailoutpie.png

    Greece themselves get 19 cents of every Euro. The banks / ECB get the rest. Worth noting that the ECB control the greek financials (according to the author), so that 23% of the bailout will go straight back to them in a roundabout way.
  • Setting up some kind of EU puppet government in Greece would be the logical answer but there’s no way anyone would stand for that - least of all the already angry people of Greece.
    It has been already set up (a long time ago and not only in Greece) – read the quote below:
    nearlynew wrote: »
    The only winners, as always, will be the very people that caused the mess in the first place - the banks.

    Look at the facts...

    New head of Greece - goldman sachs employee
    New head of Italy - goldman sachs employee
    New head of ECB - goldman sachs employee

    Can't pay your debts?
    No problem - just sign over your ports, bridges, toll roads and other infrastructure to us.
    The only other solution I can think of to the crisis is for the Greeks to suddenly find a large oil reserve under their coastline....
    Greece has in its underground enough oil to repay its debt more than once; now why it’s not being used for that purpose is another question.
    ILW wrote: »
    The thing is, Greece etc walked into it with their eyes open. Probably just getting what they deserve.
    Greece isn’t the only country in the world which debt is growing like a snowball, so the problem must be not in Greeks themselves, but elsewhere (see the 1st paragraph of this post).
    ILW wrote: »
    Have the Greeks actually DONE anything to address their overspending? Or is it all just talk and asking for more bailouts?
    Salaries and pensions (including those for people with special needs) are cut by 25% or more, electricity is 15% up in price, now when buying a house one should pay 23% VAT, higher taxes on gasoline has brought its price to 1,7 € per Litre, from now on all annual salaries higher than 5.000 € are taxable (and more tax increases are underway). Many young people work 4 hours a day for 3 € an hour, due to not being able to find a better job, as dozens small enterprises are closing every day (so it’s more about surviving rather than overspending).
  • pqrdef
    pqrdef Posts: 4,552 Forumite
    Another interesting article here, on how a currency could be reintroduced if a country defaults:
    What's the point? When people don't trust their own currency, they use a hard currency instead. Public employees might get their wages in Greek wallpaper, but everybody else will carry on using euros.

    After all, in the absence of a fully functional central bank, the euro is effectively a foreign currency in the countries that use it already. Nothing much changes if they "leave" it.

    And it's not like the government will be able to sell drachma-denominated bonds in the market at any reasonable rates.

    None of this helps in the context of a free trade area. What the Greeks need is to put up trade barriers until the EU figures out what to do about Germany.
    "It will take, five, 10, 15 years to get back to where we need to be. But it's no longer the individual banks that are in the wrong, it's the banking industry as a whole." - Steven Cooper, head of personal and business banking at Barclays, talking to Martin Lewis
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    And now other member states are turning on the Euro ministers themselves, stating they want Greece out.

    So the "sorted within hours" has probably changed somewhat.
    Some eurozone countries no longer want Greece in the bloc, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos has said.

    He accused the states of "playing with fire", as Greece scrambled to finalise an austerity plan demanded by the EU and IMF in return for a huge bailout.
    Theres one thing that this is.....extremely messy.

    Germany and it's EU officials are getting serious pee'd off with Greece, and throwing insults at the nation. It's actually becoming worrying now.
    In a transcript acquired by Reuters, CEO Franz Fehrenbach says: "This state with its phantom pensioners and rich people that don't pay taxes, a state without a functioning administration, has no place in the European Union."
  • pqrdef
    pqrdef Posts: 4,552 Forumite
    Mrs_Bones wrote: »
    I think we could go on yo-yo back and forth like this right up the dead line of, is it 20th of March when Greece needs the bailout money to repay back.
    The government needs to announce a default before there's a run on the banks, and the people need to get their money out before the government announces a default. Neither side dares leave it until the last minute. Either side could decide at any time that they daren't leave it any longer.
    "It will take, five, 10, 15 years to get back to where we need to be. But it's no longer the individual banks that are in the wrong, it's the banking industry as a whole." - Steven Cooper, head of personal and business banking at Barclays, talking to Martin Lewis
  • Mrs_Bones
    Mrs_Bones Posts: 15,524 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Photogenic Combo Breaker
    How likely is it that contagion to other countries can be prevented if Greece leaves the Euro either by choice or force?
    [FONT=&quot]“I've learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.” ~ Maya Angelou[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]
  • AndyGuil
    AndyGuil Posts: 1,668 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Mrs_Bones wrote: »
    How likely is it that contagion to other countries can be prevented if Greece leaves the Euro either by choice or force?
    It can only be prevented if they have a pot of money well into the trillions that can be set aside for Italy and Spain, unfortunately that has not and will not happen. The markets will turn on them and it will be a disorderly default as a result.
  • the longer this goes on, the more the eu are going to be thinking that greece will say anything just to get its hands on the bailout dough

    and the more uneasy they will be about handing it over. it's already starting, they're already wondering if, actually, they might be better off just booting greece out of the eu altogether

    they'd be wrong of course, as such action would be catastrophic
    'Be not deceived; God is not mocked: for whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap.'
    GALATIANS 6: 7 (KJV)
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