House prices - Will they fall or rise in 2012

Graham_Devon

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16288438

Only Halifax (or someone from there!) point out the slightly possibility of a rise.

For every other commentator, it's fall...So they will probably rise!

• Ray Boulger - down 4%
• Bernard Clarke - "a broadly flat market"
• Jonathan Davis - down 10%
• Martin Ellis - "unchanged plus or minus 2%"
• Robert Gardner - "flat to modestly lower"
• Henry Pryor - down 10%
• Simon Rubinsohn - down 3%
• Ed Stansfield - down 5%

RenovationMan

up 2% YoY on the land registry index.

geneer

Graham_Devon wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16288438

Only Halifax (or someone from there!) point out the slightly possibility of a rise.

For every other commentator, it's fall...So they will probably rise!

• Ray Boulger - down 4%
• Bernard Clarke - "a broadly flat market"
• Jonathan Davis - down 10%
• Martin Ellis - "unchanged plus or minus 2%"
• Robert Gardner - "flat to modestly lower"
• Henry Pryor - down 10%
• Simon Rubinsohn - down 3%
• Ed Stansfield - down 5%

'kin 'el.

Hamishes go to pundit Ray "prices are unlikely to fall (september 07) Boulger is predicting a drop.

Oh dear. This can't be good.

Thrugelmir

Prices in 2012 will fall, that's a given certainty.

satchmeister

RenovationMan wrote: »

up 2% YoY on the land registry index.

?????
Average price £159,999ChangeMonthly -0.9%Annual -3.2%

and the cuts will increase, as will unemployment etc, don't see any recovery in house prices for a good few years

geneer

I'll go for 9%. 4% nominal. 5% real.

RenovationMan

satchmeister wrote: »

?????
Average price £159,999ChangeMonthly -0.9%Annual -3.2%

and the cuts will increase, as will unemployment etc, don't see any recovery in house prices for a good few years

We're predicting for this time next year, so I'm not sure why you're posting current figures to show that I'm 'wrong'?

Marine_life

I am a big fan of the economist.

They have been monitoring house prices by country http://www.economist.com/node/21009954 for a long time.

The graphs on this page have a number of click down menu's.

There are some factors which suggest UK house prices may fare better than those in the US but I would not hold my breath.

I would expect prices to gradually move back to the long term index value although in the short term they may overshoot. I could see falls of 5-10% next year.

satchmeister

RenovationMan wrote: »

We're predicting for this time next year, so I'm not sure why you're posting current figures to show that I'm 'wrong'?

No I am surprised that you think prices will rise by 2% given that they fell 3.2% over the last years and by all accounts we are heading towards a recession, middle class squeezed, no real pay rises but rising prices for travel, food energy etc coupled with rising unemployment (never really left the recession in IMHO). so I am interested in why you see prices rising?

RenovationMan

satchmeister wrote: »

No I am surprised that you think prices will rise by 2% given that they fell 3.2% over the last years and by all accounts we are heading towards a recession, middle class squeezed, no real pay rises but rising prices for travel, food energy etc coupled with rising unemployment (never really left the recession in IMHO). so I am interested in why you see prices rising?

Ah right. I'm a contrarian.

Thrugelmir

Marine_life wrote: »

There are some factors which suggest UK house prices may fare better than those in the US but I would not hold my breath.

What's the connection between the 2 markets ?