Annual Prediction Thread for House Prices 2012.

Sibley

Well, it's that time of year isn't it?

December 2012.

Where do you think house prices will be?

I'm going for:

London slight rises maybe 5%

SE. Market flat. Not many rises or drops. Des Res areas staying at 2007 levels.

North England. Up to 10% drops depending on where.

Scotland. Main towns flat/stagnation to maybe 3% rises.

Wales and NI. Who cares if you do not live there?

I think what you will see is lack of good stock. People will put their house on the market for 10% more than they will actually accept. Buyers will try to offer less and end up still renting.

Nothing will be moving.

All in all the same sort of year as we had this year. Boring. No big drops or gains.

Long term prices will rise.

Generali

It's a really tough call this year IMO as there are increasingly going to be things going on in the economy that are out of the control of Governments.

There seems to be a reasonable chance that the US economy is finally going to get its act together this year. If it does then you can expect to see interest rates starting to return to more normal levels pretty quickly as there is no way that the UK could have base rates at, say, 1% with the US target rate at 4-5%. What happens then? I have to be honest, I have no idea. It could be positive for house prices as the economy normalises and people become more willing to take risks with their finances to buy, it could shake out a lot of marginal holders of property that can't afford the increase in mortgage rates leading to more forced sales.

Of course this could be (another) false dawn for the US and thus the world's economy. If that is the case then expect the disfunctional housing market to continue: low transaction volumes, prices being effectively meaningless outside a few select areas, little reason to sell and little ability to buy.

I think another recession could be in the offing, at least technically but the economy could rebound pretty strongly after that. The US economy seems to be rebalancing quickly as price signals are allowed to move through labour (labor?), capital and property markets there. Moribund areas like Detroit and New Orleans seem to be attracting large amounts of investment, annecdotally at least, and the US welfare system makes long-term unemployment an extremely unattractive proposition for most.

What's good for the USA is good for the rest of us. Even with the rise of China etc they are still well over 20% of the world's economy and any recovery in the US will pull the rest of the world out of the mire, with the exception of Government finances.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Sibley wrote: »

London slight rises maybe 5%

SE. Market flat. Not many rises or drops. Des Res areas staying at 2007 levels.

North England. Up to 10% drops depending on where.

Scotland. Main towns flat/stagnation to maybe 3% rises.

All in all the same sort of year as we had this year. Boring. No big drops or gains.

Long term prices will rise.

Looks about right to me.

DervProf

Sibley wrote: »

Long term prices will rise.

Really ?

What a shocking revelation.

harpoboy

Looking back at this old thread, it really is interesting to see just how quickly the market has accelerated over the past 2 years or so.


As for 2014, I'd predict house prices up 7-8% nationally, with London a few percentage points above that (in or around 10%)

rob404uk

Living in London it has felt nearer 15% rise this year, if not more in certain areas

Frugalsod

rob404uk wrote: »

Living in London it has felt nearer 15% rise this year, if not more in certain areas

In parts of London they had 10% in a month.

Loughton_Monkey

rob404uk wrote: »

Living in London it has felt nearer 15% rise this year, if not more in certain areas

I tend to follow the Nationwide Quarterly Regional index. Helps to firm up on what's going on in one's own area.

I note that the average London House Price was £300,361 by the end of 2012 and at the end of September had risen by £30,978 to £331,338. An increase of 10.3%.

Before we can predict 2014, it would be interesting to see the full 2013 out-turn.

I confidently predict that the December release will show London houses to have risen - for the full year 2013 - somewhere in the range £100/£105,000.

harpoboy

rob404uk wrote: »

Living in London it has felt nearer 15% rise this year, if not more in certain areas

I think it depends on the property and location.


One of my BTL's is in a less desireable location, in an area that is gentrifying. Flats in the same block have been selling for 15-20% in recent times than they were a year earlier.


As for my main home, it has probably only gone up 5-8% in the same time frame.