Home Truths

JonnyBravo

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

What is it with people on this board that they jump all over you for giving an opinion. I honestly feel like 2012 is going to be a really tough year that will probably hitting houses hard too.
If you don't think that Hog, well great!!
Just don't get all worked up with others that do.

So you in turn get all worked up and jump over someone giving an opinion?
That doesn't make sense does it?
Oh wait.... it was the opposite opinion to yours.... ah I see....


I think boards like this may not be the best place for one so fragile....

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Not quite so good for mortgaged up to the hilt owners and banks though.

How many people are mortgaged to the hilt? Not many? So we don't need to worry about them.

The banks are are different matter. Governments have a pathological desire to bail out banks under, seemingly, any circumstance. I'd be very worried about the banks because if it goes t**ts up for them then it will go t**ts up for me, you, my family and yours in pretty short order too.

alebox

Property prices might move a few % must likley down but people arent selling becuase they can not afford to sell.

Everyone was living on the back of their property and barrowing against and mortgaged to the hilt therefore cant afford to sell it for less than the owe on it.

Up/down crash zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz, Its just common sense that it won't pick up or crash unless intrest rates rise and the reposessions start. Cant see that happening unless inflation really kicks in.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

How many people are mortgaged to the hilt? Not many? So we don't need to worry about them.

The banks are are different matter. Governments have a pathological desire to bail out banks under, seemingly, any circumstance. I'd be very worried about the banks because if it goes t**ts up for them then it will go t**ts up for me, you, my family and yours in pretty short order too.

Interestingly, I've just had a thought.

That's the interesting bit....

But howcome other countries have seen property prices fall 30%+ and their banks have held up? Or at least, held up just as ours have done, with bailouts etc?

America for instance. Don't see the banks literally imploding thanks to 30%+ falls?

Mallotum_X

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Interestingly, I've just had a thought.

That's the interesting bit....

But howcome other countries have seen property prices fall 30%+ and their banks have held up? Or at least, held up just as ours have done, with bailouts etc?

America for instance. Don't see the banks literally imploding thanks to 30%+ falls?

America has had lots of small banks go, then Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac baliouts have cost the US massive amounts. The US govt bailed out their mortgage industry to save it.

The bailouts to save banks/financial institutions wasnt just a UK thing.

Graham_Devon

Mallotum_X wrote: »

America has had lots of small banks go, then Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac baliouts have cost the US massive amounts. The US govt bailed out their mortgage industry to save it.

The bailouts to save banks/financial institutions wasnt just a UK thing.

Yes, I understand that.

But house price declines in the US have not created further bailouts. And indeed, the UK had to bailout banks anyway, even with lower declines....as has happened all over Europe, even without large ownership.

Just wondering how much damage house prices decling say 40% would actually do to the banks....considering other countries have seen this happen.

It's been suggested banks would cope and its been suggested banks and the country would literally go bankrupt and no one would be able to get any of their savings.

doire_2

Road_Hog wrote: »

Well, if it's all so bad, you lot must be snapping up the bargains. But actually no, people are digging in and saying, "no, you can't buy my house for a song, I'll wait, I'm in no hurry".

And that's the rub, you can shout about tumbling house prices all you want, but if there's none for sale, then it won't do you any good.

There are plenty of houses othwerwise why the need for so many EA? Plenty of houses too on Rightmove and various other online property sites

As for snapping up bargains? Maybe people are fearful of their jobs

Mallotum_X

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Just wondering how much damage house prices decling say 40% would actually do to the banks....considering other countries have seen this happen.

It's been suggested banks would cope and its been suggested banks and the country would literally go bankrupt and no one would be able to get any of their savings.

Hard to say but i think the argument is that the bank balance sheets would (if revalued) be negative or in a level that would create concern, and thus require bailouts/govt guarantees to prevent a run on the said banks or ratings downgrades.

Such events would mean an increased cost of borrowing to the banks and push things further.

Its wider than just the banks, politically the brits love houses, an Englishmans home is his castle and all that, so any party that let a big crash happen would risk policital damage.

In truth the way house prices have held up is probably more a side effect of the other economic policies rather than the main aim. A quick sharp crash may well have been better in the long run, but maybe not. Instead we have this long drawn out correction. Perhaps less sharp pain for anyone but rather a longer period of worry and uncertaincy.

I think housing for the next generation may well be more affordable but those that held out for a crash this time will have in general missed out due to wider economic events.

2012 in my view will be more of the same, probably 2013 too.