Sentiment Through The Floor

SecondLegDownIsTheBigOne

Most people are now resigned to the fact that the next leg down is here and this time it's the big one.

http://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/news_features/More-consumers-accept-the-value-of-their-home-is-going-down

Mallotum_X

Interesting stat on that site that only 7% of people think their home has gone up in value.

Still no significant changes on the indices. Unless something else shocks the system then I still cant see anything other than modest falls again this year.

TruckerT

Mallotum_X wrote: »

only 7% of people think their home has gone up in value

what percentage still feel that their home is still secure?

TruckerT

MrRee_2

93% .................

sabretoothtigger

A bottom in sentiment is a bullish signal to buy yer know. People giving up on something collectively would be a very good time to at least consider the weight of numbers, ie. many sellers few buyers

Somehow I doubt housing has bottomed and it seems people constantly ignore inflation or even comparison to rental. When renting is far cheaper is when I expect housing to be a good buy as just a few determined to be owners will be interested in paying over the odds (actually I heard that said of a reason to sell at the '07 market top)

Cleaver

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

A bottom in sentiment is a bullish signal to buy yer know. People giving up on something collectively would be a very good time to at least consider the weight of numbers, ie. many sellers few buyers

Somehow I doubt housing has bottomed and it seems people constantly ignore inflation or even comparison to rental. When renting is far cheaper is when I expect housing to be a good buy as just a few determined to be owners will be interested in paying over the odds (actually I heard that said of a reason to sell at the '07 market top)

I agree with all this, if you're looking at the housing market as a purely financial thing.

For most people 'the best time to buy' is when you want to buy. I.e., you've met someone nice, you're in a place you like and you fancy owning your own place.

My Dad always told me that if you no one can time markets. So buy a house that love and you can afford. And over time you'll win some and you'll lose some, but above all, just enjoy the house you own.

sabretoothtigger

I agree, people arent naturally speculators and the market got skewed when that idea became 'normal'

If I was buying now for reasons like you say that could occur. I'd mostly aim to buy the current interest rates ie. fix.
Finance not the actual house is the greatest cost when we are talking average home starters
And yes if aint obvious rates are on the floor now, through it.

Thrugelmir

Mallotum_X wrote: »

Unless something else shocks the system then I still cant see anything other than modest falls again this year.

Why do lemmings jump off cliffs?

When confidence turns negative then the market will fall away.

Cleaver

Thrugelmir wrote: »

When confidence turns negative then the market will fall away.

I thought this. But then why didn't it happen over the past few years? We've been through a pretty awful global crisis and prices have stayed fairly steady.

I know, I know, interest rates. But if interest rates start to rise it'll be because the economy is getting better, so it's a catch-22.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think house prices are going anywhere upwards for years. But if the last four years of turmoil have only caused a 15% or so drop in prices I can't see them going down much more.

TruckerT

Cleaver wrote: »

We've been through a pretty awful global crisis and prices have stayed fairly steady/QUOTE]

that's because the Global Crisis has taken away the 'opportunities' in life - why would you drop your selling price, when there is nowhere for you to go?

TruckerT

pqrdef

Cleaver wrote: »

I thought this. But then why didn't it happen over the past few years? We've been through a pretty awful global crisis and prices have stayed fairly steady.

People have been waiting for the economy to recover. Things change when people decide that isn't going to happen any time foreseeable.

People are sitting on houses they need to sell, because of divorce etc. But they've persuaded themselves they can't afford the price hit. The mortgage isn't too bad, and they'll get it back when the price bounces back, won't they?

But they'll start to think this can't drift on for ever.

Then they'll realise that if everybody else starts to think the same thing, the vital trick will be to get out first.

What we haven't seen, but may be about to see, is the kind of price plunge that can be generated if fear of falling prices takes hold.