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Debate House Prices


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CML Repossessions to SOAR

According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders 2012 will see repossessions soar by 20%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16197258

A devastating blow for house prices.
1. The house price crash will begin.
2. There will be a dead cat bounce.
3. The second leg down will commence.
4. I will buy your house for a song.
«1

Comments

  • Heyman_2
    Heyman_2 Posts: 1,819 Forumite
    CML cuts reposessions forecast for 2009
    http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2456

    CML cuts repossessions forecast for 2010
    http://www.politics.co.uk/opinion-formers/council-of-mortgage-lenders-cml/article/cml-reports-decline-in-arrears-and-repossessions

    CML cuts reposessions forecast for 2011
    http://www.themovechannel.com/news/04ef3d9f-410d/

    Gee, I wonder what's going to happen in 2012?
  • hopefully some [STRIKE]successful businessmen[/STRIKE] BTL spivs will get repo'd and there'll be bargains to be had. :j
  • Heyman wrote: »
    CML cuts reposessions forecast for 2009
    http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2456

    CML cuts repossessions forecast for 2010
    http://www.politics.co.uk/opinion-formers/council-of-mortgage-lenders-cml/article/cml-reports-decline-in-arrears-and-repossessions

    CML cuts reposessions forecast for 2011
    http://www.themovechannel.com/news/04ef3d9f-410d/

    Gee, I wonder what's going to happen in 2012?

    No doubt the CML will "revise" their figures down by a few hundred; makes good PR. The state is running out of intervention ammo.
    1. The house price crash will begin.
    2. There will be a dead cat bounce.
    3. The second leg down will commence.
    4. I will buy your house for a song.
  • Heyman_2
    Heyman_2 Posts: 1,819 Forumite
    No doubt the CML will "revise" their figures down by a few hundred; makes good PR. The state is running out of intervention ammo.

    Revised down by 27,000 total in 2009

    Revised down by 14,000 total in 2010

    Revised down by 4,000 total in 2011

    Hardly 'a few hundred'.
  • ILW
    ILW Posts: 18,333 Forumite
    simonSE15 wrote: »
    hopefully some [STRIKE]successful businessmen[/STRIKE] BTL spivs will get repo'd and there'll be bargains to be had. :j

    BTL investors will buy most of the repos anyway.
  • Heyman wrote: »
    Revised down by 27,000 total in 2009

    Revised down by 14,000 total in 2010

    Revised down by 4,000 total in 2011

    Hardly 'a few hundred'.

    If their revisions continue to follow this pattern then it soon will be!

    :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

    This is clearly bad news for notworkinghardworking homeownerdebtors currently squatting in houses that they can no longer afford.
    1. The house price crash will begin.
    2. There will be a dead cat bounce.
    3. The second leg down will commence.
    4. I will buy your house for a song.
  • julieq
    julieq Posts: 2,603 Forumite
    Yawn.... Whenever you see the word "soar" it means that the actual number is tiny and to make the point the writer is having to use hyperbole.

    We're well into the bear meme here that there are government props to house prices, and it's complete nonsense.

    1) Interest rates - same policy in the US and what's happened to prices there?
    2) Interest payments on unemployment, average payment less than £30 a week, most goes to pensioners, total is a tiny proportion of mortgage loan book and tiny fraction of housing benefit

    And, err, that's it really. Meanwhile arrears are tiny, and repossessions are low. There are only two actual props that work, one of which is keeping people in jobs which by and large we're doing at the moment, and the other is not building enough houses which is by far the most important one. While that's true, rent will increase and we'll keep a price floor based on rental yield. You may not like that, you may be prepared to hold your breath and scream all day until prices correct 30-50% to a price you think you'd pay, but it won't happen.

    Honestly, everything else can soar swoop or zoom all day and it won't make an iota of difference. That penny will drop eventually.
  • A sudden drop in IRs doesn't make a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, such like those in the US, nicer.
    1. The house price crash will begin.
    2. There will be a dead cat bounce.
    3. The second leg down will commence.
    4. I will buy your house for a song.
  • FTBFun
    FTBFun Posts: 4,273 Forumite
    A sudden drop in IRs doesn't make a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, such like those in the US, nicer.

    .......and?
  • ... and?

    ...
    1. The house price crash will begin.
    2. There will be a dead cat bounce.
    3. The second leg down will commence.
    4. I will buy your house for a song.
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