We’d like to remind Forumites to please avoid political debate on the Forum.
This is to keep it a safe and useful space for MoneySaving discussions. Threads that are – or become – political in nature may be removed in line with the Forum’s rules. Thank you for your understanding.
Debate House Prices
In order to help keep the Forum a useful, safe and friendly place for our users, discussions around non MoneySaving matters are no longer permitted. This includes wider debates about general house prices, the economy and politics. As a result, we have taken the decision to keep this board permanently closed, but it remains viewable for users who may find some useful information in it. Thank you for your understanding.
📨 Have you signed up to the Forum's new Email Digest yet? Get a selection of trending threads sent straight to your inbox daily, weekly or monthly!
Halifax November: -0.9% MoM -0.6% QoQ -1.0% YoY
Comments
-
The single, absolute, reading of the market is - as it has always been - to be a buyer/seller in your own particular market.
Once you have been engaged in it for a few months you know what's happening on the ground.
And, for my part .. the market in the South of Hampshire/East Dorset is extremely bouyant with firm prices edging upwards .... prices up about 20% on 12 months ago.
In fact, yesterday, the final property, which has been on the market since April 2010 - yes that long, has been bought. It seems that, around September, people started buying like mad ... the best went quick, the next best followed ... all the way down top where we are now - nowt for sale!
It was as if a switch had been thrown - it was that immediate.Bringing Happiness where there is Gloom!0 -
Just to point out a mathematical thing; it's impossible to compare without knowing what the 100% value was for each Registry, or an understanding on how accurate or representative the value was.
Furthermore, just by looking at the graph it's clear that different months were used to give the 100% value (as each registry would have peaked at a different month) making any comparison rather flawed.
I agree. The reason I normalised to peak price was because of the context - i.e. discussions about the 'house price crash'. To compare the data between the three, it does make sense to normalise to something as the 'average price' is quite different for each index. However, the method of normalisation does bias the results in different ways (the difference in the two plots above show this).0 -
The very idea of one index becoming "more reliable" is laughable.
They have used the same method for years, so one would have to be consistently more reliable over the whole period. It would not go from being more to less reliable and visa-versa.
The idea it could from switch from reliable to unreliable makes it unreliable!
It is like saying a clock stuck at 12 is reliable twice a day.
Just noise probably relating to data capture, time frames, location abnormalities.
The only reason it is being called more correct as it fits in with a person view. That as always been the case on the forum.
Surely if it was correct we should see some nominal parity, in the end they are measuring house prices, not percentages.;)0 -
I agree. The reason I normalised to peak price was because of the context -
Why is the nationwide not set pulled back a couple of months as the peak seems to be a few month later than the others and rises above the top of your graph?
Paints a different picture perhaps?
The peaks are not at the same point?0 -
Ha ha. GET IN! The bears win this months numberwang 2:1.
You have to love the bulls.
They spend all their time trying to justify their preference for nationwide, even though by all accounts it suffers from many of the same issues Halifax does.
Halifax has 10% of the mortgage market share.
Nationwide has a smaller % than even that.
Bottom line Landreg is the one to watch really.
But thats not new news surely.0 -
Why is the nationwide not set pulled back a couple of months as the peak seems to be a few month later than the others and rises above the top of your graph?
Paints a different picture perhaps?
Because there's no reason to do so, since Halifax and Nationwide are both concurrent. This is evidenced by how well they track each other over the rest of the data-set - I'd do a correlation to prove this if I could be arsed, but it is quite clear from the data. Sure, there are discrepencacies between the time of the peak, etc (because of measurement errors), but I can't see any justification for shifting either in time. The LR is pulled back a couple of months because of the lag.0 -
The very idea of one index becoming "more reliable" is laughable.
They have used the same method for years, so one would have to be consistently more reliable over the whole period. It would not go from being more to less reliable and visa-versa.
The idea it could from switch from reliable to unreliable makes it unreliable!
It is like saying a clock stuck at 12 is reliable twice a day.
Just noise probably relating to data capture, time frames, location abnormalities.
The only reason it is being called more correct as it fits in with a person view. That as always been the case on the forum.
Surely if it was correct we should see some nominal parity, in the end they are measuring house prices, not percentages.;)
The reason I'm calling it 'more correct' at the moment is because it better reflects the LR (YoY). As I've previously stated, this isn't always the case and probably won't be the case in the future.0 -
Because there's no reason to do so, since Halifax and Nationwide are both concurrent.
So why say you normalised the peaks? If you say you are normalising the peaks you would think you would do that.
So you normalised the halifax to the LR peak, very scientific of you.
Why not do it normalised to the nationwide and tell us what happens.;)0 -
The single, absolute, reading of the market is - as it has always been - to be a buyer/seller in your own particular market.
Once you have been engaged in it for a few months you know what's happening on the ground.
And, for my part .. the market in the South of Hampshire/East Dorset is extremely bouyant with firm prices edging upwards .... prices up about 20% on 12 months ago.
In fact, yesterday, the final property, which has been on the market since April 2010 - yes that long, has been bought. It seems that, around September, people started buying like mad ... the best went quick, the next best followed ... all the way down top where we are now - nowt for sale!
It was as if a switch had been thrown - it was that immediate.
MrRee you're obviously a useless bast**d.
Here is a small selection of properties in the area you are looking. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/Christchurch.html?maxPrice=2000000&radius=5.0&index=200
If it's the wrong area, give me a shout with your budget details and area and I'll see if I can find you a shed somewhere.
By the way MrRee I won't charge you any fees for my service. Think of it as my good deed for the day helping someone who is mentally challenged.0 -
The reason I'm calling it 'more correct' at the moment is because it better reflects the LR (YoY). As I've previously stated, this isn't always the case and probably won't be the case in the future.
So a generally incorrect index is more correct at the moment?
It better reflects the LR yoy?
The LR data is for October at the latest how is an index on mortgages approved this month reflective of completed prices of houses 2-3 months ago?
We have no idea how close the nationwide or halifax data is until the mortgage approvals turn in to completed sales on the LR.0
This discussion has been closed.
Confirm your email address to Create Threads and Reply
Categories
- All Categories
- 352.2K Banking & Borrowing
- 253.6K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
- 454.3K Spending & Discounts
- 245.2K Work, Benefits & Business
- 600.9K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
- 177.5K Life & Family
- 259K Travel & Transport
- 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
- 16K Discuss & Feedback
- 37.7K Read-Only Boards