Halifax November: -0.9% MoM -0.6% QoQ -1.0% YoY

joguest

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/research/2011/HousePriceIndexNovember2011.pdf

Non-Seasonally Adjusted MoM: -2.1%.



(Haliwide NSA, LR SA and shifted back a couple of months)

Phil_Spencer

Looks like the winter freeze has started.

Rinoa

Halifax is one of the key measures of house price movement. The share prices of housebuilders were affected last year when it highlighted a 3.7 per cent fall in September values, the biggest monthly drop since the index began in 1983. This was seen as a statistical blip, as it was then followed by a bounce of almost 2 per cent.


Lloyds is undertaking a review of how it calculates the index, which is based on mortgage approvals made by Halifax. It is understood the bank hopes to iron out irregularities and volatility in the index.


Lloyds declined to comment.

..........

System

Seeing as the nationwide is completely unreliable now due to it being a whopping 2% ish higher than LR, where does this leave the 'fax?

Pimperne1

Time for another of these over on HPC:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=sTSA_sWGM44

Another false dawn......

joguest

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Seeing as the nationwide is completely unreliable now due to it being a whopping 2% ish higher than LR, where does this leave the 'fax?

The Nationwide is around 5% higher YoY than the LR (-3.2% YoY), so one would assume the 'fax is currently more reliable.

System

joguest wrote: »

The Nationwide is around 5% higher YoY than the LR (-3.2% YoY), so one would assume the 'fax is currently more reliable.

Ah yes of course, forget the actual values that the graph shows, rate of change is clearly the way forward.

joguest

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Ah yes of course, forget the actual values that the graph shows, rate of change is clearly the way forward.

What does that even mean? Which graph are you referring to? If it's the one I posted above, then there is a very obvious reason that it's normalised (to peak price) - the 'average house' is different for each index.

The percentage changes are the only sensible way to make a comparison between how the indexes behave. At the moment, the nationwide is (unusually) the most out of step with the LR figures (the only figures that really count).

wotsthat

joguest wrote: »

The Nationwide is around 5% higher YoY than the LR (-3.2% YoY), so one would assume the 'fax is currently more reliable.

So take two Nationwide figures (the last one and one from a year ago) and then two Halifax figures (today's and one from a year ago). Then compare against LR figures and conclude Halifax is more reliable than Nationwide?

You can't reach that conclusion based on subtracting the LR numbers from Halifax and Nationwide.

Given that the graph shows a good correlation between the indexes aren't any individual points just noise?

Batchy

Noise... stagnation... Perfect!... no winners, no losers! Best middle ground possible!

everyone happy/unhappy together!

Mallotum_X

Up a bit, down a bit. Long bumpy ride of not much happening.

Unless something shocks the system then we have several months (years?) of this bumpy stuff.

Expect the Express to put anything positive on the front page, Sibley to post how he beat HPC with the help of the Express and anything negative to be ignored.