Challenge - NI Economy Without Mentioning the P-topic

Mistral001

Is it possible to have a discussion on the NI Economy without mentioning the “P” topic ( P= property)?

That includes housing, commercial land and building, buy-to-lets, mortgages, bank loans for P. All taboo subjects on this thread.

Is it possible to do? I think it is a big big challenge for us all (including me).

A topic for this thread would be Exporting. It brings in much badly-needed money to the NI economy, but what would improve the chances of firms here to do more of it.

Is this challenge realistic? Or is it as realistic as Andrew Marr going through a whole progamme without using the word "narrative". Or Alan Hanson to go through a Match of the Day without saying "Look at all that space".

I throw the challenge open.


PS: The present threads on NI economy have some good discussions on "P", so no offense meant to the good people there.

tara747

Well, the 'house prices' thread has escalated into a macroeconomic debate, so perhaps we should separate the two?

Mistral001

Thanks for reply. Call that a false start!

No mention of the P-topic remember.

saverbuyer

What are we asking here? Can NI grow into a net exporter? Can we reduce our public sector reliance on Britain in favour of private exporting enterprise? Me, I find it highly unlikely for a number of reasons.

I think our executive is trying to push us towards a pre-bust cultic Tiger model, i.e. low corporation tax and high levels of foreign direct investment towards IT and outsourcing. I'm really not confident of the long-term success of such a model. Companies like Google et al will inevitably follow the tax cuts and this will result in a true race to the bottom.

A.L.D.A

saverbuyer wrote: »

I think our executive is trying to push us towards a pre-bust cultic Tiger model, i.e. low corporation tax and high levels of foreign direct investment towards IT and outsourcing. I'm really not confident of the long-term success of such a model. Companies like Google et al will inevitably follow the tax cuts and this will result in a true race to the bottom.

Also as the finances of countries remain enfeebled they will be looking to close loopholes where companies channel their profits through low tax regimes.

I think we should be trying to encourage local energy production with a view to being self sufficient as a priority. We are running out of oil and the cost of extracting new finds is increasing. Countries without power will literally revert to the horse and cart or pay increasing amounts for their oil. Nuclear is not an option as there are supply problems. I see little sense in investing in new roads.


People often say that the inventiveness of man will shine when the going gets tough. Even if we invent a car that runs on water or some super source of free energy the lead in time to switch production will be considerable. Say we have free electricity then how long will it take to convert to electric cars with all the necessary infra structure?

Second area for investment would be forestry. It is a bit long term but forests across the uplands of NI could support future wood related industries.

Tourism. There is good scope for growth.

There is also a need to simplify and reduce the administration here. I would not change the councils, it will be an utter waste of money. I would however move many government functions to the councils where there could be better coordination. Roads, Planning, Building Control, Health and Safety etc could all work much better if integrated at a local level.

If we had the power I would recommend scrapping rates and with it one agency. I would replace it with local income tax. Much fairer.

Mistral001

saverbuyer wrote: »

What are we asking here? Can NI grow into a net exporter? Can we reduce our public sector reliance on Britain in favour of private exporting enterprise? Me, I find it highly unlikely for a number of reasons.

I think our executive is trying to push us towards a pre-bust cultic Tiger model, i.e. low corporation tax and high levels of foreign direct investment towards IT and outsourcing. I'm really not confident of the long-term success of such a model. Companies like Google et al will inevitably follow the tax cuts and this will result in a true race to the bottom.

Good start as P-topic not once mentioned!

Yes possibly we can become a net-exporter. The reason we can is that although we have been diverted by that thing that is unmentionable on this thread, we have not been diverted by the short-trem culture of the City financial traders. The financial transaction tax proposed by Europe to help curb the short-termism in financial traders which had a lot to do with this mess in the first place was shot down by the UK government because we would be paying 80% of it. That means, by my reckoning the UK accounts for 80% of the financial trading in the whole of Europe.

So on the positive we in NI are not addicted to making money by just moving it round the world cleverly and making a few fractions of a % each time on millions of pounds. Those people remind me of the "clippers" in the 18th centuray who used shave off bits of gold coins to make a living.

There are a few manufacturing firms doing well and exporting. Maybe they should looked to as examples. for how to make money. Many have not borrowed a penny in their rise as well.

A.L.D.A

Mistral001 wrote: »

So on the positive we in NI are not addicted to making money by just moving it round the world cleverly and making a few fractions of a % each time on millions of pounds. Those people remind me of the "clippers" in the 18th century who used shave off bits of gold coins to make a living.

That is a good analogy. I am very much in favour of the transaction tax as it would help stop much or the computerised trading and all sorts of manipulation. It may help stabilise the markets. Unfortunately it would need to be introduced world wide.

I spent a bit of time in London and we did work across the world. I could meet experts on foreign legal constraints, customs etc.

In NI we have lost much of that network of contacts that must once have existed. We have also lost (as has much of the UK) engineering and manufacturing skills and expertise. The recent immigrants may be an asset in the context of knowledge of other countries and the Chinese & Indian communities potentially invaluable. We are poor at teaching languages and that is a big disadvantage.

When I think of successful local companies that export I don't discern any pattern. There are a few I know and I think the difference is good (determined) management coupled with a reasonable wealthy background. So I deduce that access to affordable finance is crucial. Everyone I know, in all business sectors (except those whose jobs depend on muddle), complain about intrusive and complex legislation.

A youth with a brilliant idea from Templemore Avenue is unlikely to get much support from his Bank. Worse still there is no obvious way for others to invest in his business. I for example may be interested if I knew. There needs to be a way of making it easy for small investors to invest in local businesses, instead of simply lodging their sayings in the Banks, Pension Funds or businesses elsewhere.

I have mentioned energy before, but for investment there it will require a fundamental change in the Planning Process and I believe there are also complications on how we sell into the network, who can install cables, substations etc.

It should be relatively easy to expand tourism, but it will take time as few are going to invest that far ahead of demand.

36square

"The recent immigrants may be an asset in the context of knowledge of other countries and the Chinese & Indian communities"

The most prominent Indian businessman in NI, Lord Rana, is (or maybe was) a property (sorry)developer. It's not as if we can't grow them ourselves.

A.L.D.A

36square wrote: »

"The recent immigrants may be an asset in the context of knowledge of other countries and the Chinese & Indian communities"

The most prominent Indian businessman in NI, Lord Rana, is (or maybe was) a property (sorry)developer. It's not as if we can't grow them ourselves.

Yes they come here and some of ours go there. The way of the world.

Brought to mind the construction industry. We are fairly strong in this field. We export concrete products, bricks, roof tiles and plastic components such as sewer pipes. Quite a few contractors and building professionals work abroad (as well as in the rest of UK and Ireland)

We are as good as any and better than most I have seen. Instead of exporting bricklayers we should be tendering for more work abroad. It could reduce unemployment here, bring in much needed revenue and create employment among local suppliers and manufacturers as people understandably tend to specify products they know.

http://www.meedconferences.com/iraqinfrastructure/Homepage2.asp

x12yhp

I am involved with an NI based manufacturer. We are a small company and have recently invested (our own money, INI not even slightly interested). We have invested in a development section and spent a considerable amount trying to get ourselves in line with the insane level of regulation. We have also relocated to new premises to allow expansion over the coming times. At present we struggle a bit because people are not buying unless they need to but the invested money has brought about new products as well as new customers, both through the web and direct contacts. We currently export to Europe and occasionally the middle east. But, like when we wanted help previously, expanding and exporting further is very difficult. We need to earn money in the bank before we can spend it and it does not matter that we want to bring foreign money in... we still have to make the contacts ourselves, check the validity, security etc etc.

We survive because we are trying to innovate and keep moving forwards. Other NI firms do likewise but there is a lot more potential here than many people realise. We need INI to start talking to the small businesses and stop focusing entirely on the big guys. I know that seagate etc employ large numbers of people but they will bolt as soon as the money disappears or they can do it cheaper elsewhere. The small guys with 10 or less employees are often very tied to NI, they would probably go bust before they would desert NI and need much less help than the big companies. A few thousand pounds here and there goes a long way with companies like us, 10s of millions are not required...

Mistral001

A.L.D.A wrote: »

Yes they come here and some of ours go there. The way of the world.

Brought to mind the c*nstruct**n industry. We are fairly strong in this field. We export concrete products, bricks, roof tiles and plastic components such as sewer pipes. Quite a few contractors and b*ild*ng professionals work abroad (as well as in the rest of UK and Ireland)

We are as good as any and better than most I have seen. Instead of exporting bricklayers we should be tendering for more work abroad. It could reduce unemployment here, bring in much needed revenue and create employment among local suppliers and manufacturers as people understandably tend to specify products they know.

http://www.meedconferences.com/iraqinfrastructure/Homepage2.asp

Thanks for reply but treading or soft ground with regard to letting the challenge beat you!!