Nationwide prediction

Graham_Devon

Interesting to see a prediction from Nationwide.

They predict, in a nutshell:
- No interest rate rise until 2013.
- House prices to fall slightly over the next year.

Suggests housing market is supported by a long period of low interest rates.

Announcing that its underlying pre-tax profits for the six months had risen 17% from a year ago to £172m, the society said the outlook for the UK economy had weakened, adding: "Prospects for the remainder of 2011-12 and 2012-13 are very challenging." It does not expect the Bank of England to lift the base rate until 2013.

House prices may fall "slightly" over the next year, but it does not anticipate large falls, given that mortgage arrears and distressed sales are set to remain low, supported by a prolonged period of low interest rates. According to Nationwide's index, the annual rate of house price inflation is running at 0.8%.

Rhodes said home repossessions had "gone up a little bit," notably in Northern Ireland, and added that these related to historic lending through its UCB subsidiary, which was now closed to new business. However, it said that while it had more than 1.2 million mortgage customers, the total number of properties the society has repossessed – including loans acquired as a result of its takeover of several smaller societies – was 1,324, which represents 0.096% of its loan book.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/22/nationwide-reports-higher-profits

chucknorris

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Interesting to see a prediction from Nationwide.

They predict, in a nutshell:
- No interest rate rise until 2013.
- House prices to fall slightly over the next year.

Suggests housing market is supported by a long period of low interest rates.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/22/nationwide-reports-higher-profits

No real surprises then, you never know what might happen of course, but I'm happy to go along with their prediction as at this stage you have to think that any surprises are much more likely to be bad ones rather than good ones for the economy.

wotsthat

Low arrears rates, low rates of distressed selling, forecasts of continued low interest rates and slight decreases in prices - that's got to be good news hasn't it.

Might need to dust off the good news thread.

abaxas

The problem is that with inflation at 5% and wages goes up by 2%.

Where on earth can we go? Things are still getting much much worse, even with this faux recovery.

chucknorris

abaxas wrote: »

The problem is that with inflation at 5% and wages goes up by 2%.

Where on earth can we go? Things are still getting much much worse, even with this faux recovery.

It will be interesting to see what happens to inflation next year, surely it will be dampened in January when the effect of the addional 2.5% vat disapears.

geneer

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Interesting to see a prediction from Nationwide.

They predict, in a nutshell:
- No interest rate rise until 2013.
- House prices to fall slightly over the next year.

Suggests housing market is supported by a long period of low interest rates.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/22/nationwide-reports-higher-profits

The Haliwides have always been a bit pollyanna when it comes to predicting the years events.

I reckon they're careful to get the word "fall" into their predictions, which gives them a bit of wriggle room.

RenovationMan

No rate rise until 2013 will suit me nicely. I'll be on the SVR of my mortgage by then and making the decision of whether to go the tracker or fixed rate route. A cheap 10 year fix might be desirable so that I can concentrate on my & missus pensions for a change rather than the house, but it all depends on how far down I manage to pay the mortgage.

Whatever happens, happy days.

blisk3

wotsthat wrote: »

Low arrears rates, low rates of distressed selling, forecasts of continued low interest rates and slight decreases in prices - that's got to be good news hasn't it.

Might need to dust off the good news thread.

It's an artificial situation, just delays crunch time.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Blisk is Geneer's exaggerated sock puppet.........

blisk3

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

Blisk is Geneer's exaggerated sock puppet.........

keep to subject, stop trolling

wotsthat

blisk3 wrote: »

It's an artificial situation, just delays crunch time.

Artificial situation or not I reckon most on here will have paid off their mortgages by the time 'crunch time' comes around.