2012 predictions thread.

geneer

10% real falls in 2012. 3 to 5% of which will be nominal.

homelessskilledworker

geneer wrote: »

10% real falls in 2012. 3 to 5% of which will be nominal.

I don't have a clue, unlike the like of "property ever goes up" posters like cleaver sibley on hamish.
What I do know for certain is that world economics and the UK economy are going to get far worse in 2012, and with that in mind nothing will be left uneffected, and that includes property.

But I am sure one of the storytellers will soon be along to tell the frightened a fairytale, and then you can all thank him:rotfl:

chewmylegoff

geneer wrote: »

10% real falls in 2012. 3 to 5% of which will be nominal.

My prediction is that 2012 will contain 366 days.

I wonder what impact this will have on seasonal adjustments.

chewmylegoff

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

I don't have a clue, unlike the like of "property ever goes up" posters like cleaver

ha ha ha!

robmatic

geneer wrote: »

10% real falls in 2012. 3 to 5% of which will be nominal.

Bit early? I actually broadly speaking agree with you although I think RPI will fall back more strongly next year than you expect.

Much will depend on the Eurozone and liquidity though.

michaels

I disagree with your inflation forecast.

I will need to think further about my own house price forecast. Do you think we should have a poll?

Remember bears, the last time we had this competition the winner was Hamish :eek:

Did we do a 2011 forecast?

geneer wrote: »

10% real falls in 2012. 3 to 5% of which will be nominal.

tartanterra

I predict that house prices will fall, stagnate or rise dependant on the wider economy, consumer confidence and future Government policy.

I further predict that Geneer talking/trolling down house prices on MSE simply because he/she cannot afford to buy one, will have no bearing whatsoever on house prices in 2012.

paddyrg

I predict a load of people will post what they are hoping will happen to house prices on a forum near here...

Cleaver

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

I don't have a clue, unlike the like of "property ever goes up" posters like cleaver

Eh? Over the past 18 or so months on here I've said that I see nothing but stagnation or falls for property prices. I don't really think we'll see any actual rises in property prices for about 5 to 10 years. I think you have me confused with someone else Foxy.

Pimperne1

michaels wrote: »

I disagree with your inflation forecast.

I will need to think further about my own house price forecast. Do you think we should have a poll?

Remember bears, the last time we had this competition the winner was Hamish :eek:

Did we do a 2011 forecast?

Geneer and I did:

http://www.creditcrunch.co.uk/financial_crisis_topic/8522-2011-predictions/

I think we need to define which index we are going to go by. I think LR is probably the best (and presently it and Halifax are minus a little more than 2% and Nationwide is a little on the credit side with 0.8%).

Fubra +3% (rpi ~7%)
Columbo +2% Nominal ~ LR.
pimperne1 0.0% (still qualifies for "tanking" though to some).
Timm -1% nominal. -6% real
mSparks -4% (Nominal, RPI~5%)
JayScottGreenspan: -4%
notmyrealname -5%
*Benborg -5% if base rate stays at 0.5
Cletus: -7% (London: +2%)
Geneer -8%.
Spring Bouncers -8.1%
Jimmy James: -9.5%
drmr -10% erm, I'm more bearish than Geneer
liebot -12%
*Benborg -12% if base rate rises
PricesGoUpAndDown -13.2% (Same as my 2010 prediction, will be right one year, timing trump card?)

Cleaver

We did this one from September 2009 to September 2010 and started one for November 2010 to November 2011.

The winner for the 2009/10 one was Hamish, as I think it was +3.9%. I went for 2.8% for 2009/10 and -3% for 2010/11, both of which turned out to be a bit bearish.

I'd go for -3% again for 2012 on any of the main indicies.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/24881457#Comment_24881457

Cleaver wrote: »

heyman: +11%
bluey890: +10.0276523%
Rupert the Bear 2: +6.7%
michaels: +5.5%
Euphoria1z: +5%
Hamish_Mctavish: +4%
Framps: +3.7%
TrulyMadly: +3.2%
Spirit: +3.1%
Dan:: +3%
Cleaver: +2.8%
vivatifosa: +2.8%
b0rker: +2.6%
lethal0r: +2%
LydiaJ: +2%
Masomnia: +1.75%
baileysbattlebus: +1.5%
IveSeenTheLight: +1.5%
ess0two: +1.3%
Radiantsoul: +1%
Annpan: 0%
StevieJ: 0%
sabretoothtiger: 0%
joeskeppi 0% (with a +/- 2% Peter Snow style swing)
JonnyBravo: -0.4%
harryhound: -1%
davesnave: -3%
wageslave: -3%
boyse7en: -3.14%
lemonjelly: -3.25%
Geeves1980: -3.75%
nm123: -4%
Cannon Fodder: -4% (LR)
Wolvoman: -4.5% (but +2% in London)
fingernails: -4.7%
chucky: -5%
damanpunk: -5%
Jennifer_Jane: -5%
ninky: -5%
Pobby: -5%
Lotus-eater: -5.23%
tommy75: -6%
treliac: -7%
moggylover: -7%
subarusty: -7%
skap7309: -7% (LR) -8.5% (the other ones)
graham_devon: -7.5%
carolt: -8%
ShelleyC: -8%
FC123: -9%
DeadCat: -10%
FungusFighter: -10%
mewbie: -10%
brit1234: -11%
spannaman: -11%
bo drinker: -12%
geoffky: -15%
bernard shaw: -25%

Lostinrates: "doesn't know" (which is probably the answer everyone should have)
Nearlynew: "down, but doesn't give a t0ss about percentages" (i.e. doesn't want to commit)
SingleSue: "very confuzzled and doesn't know"
Brixham: "clueless"

NEW PREDICTIONS FOR NOVEMBER 2010 to NOVEMBER 2011:

Linton: +5%
Jebervic: +0.5%
Sabretooth Tiger: Lots of clever stuff, but basically 0%
Pimperne1: 0%
Joeskeppi: 0% (with a 2% swing)
IveSeenTheLight: -1.5%
Cleaver: -3%
Vivatifosi: -4%
justme111: -4%
Procrastinator333: -5%
Coeus: -6%
Chucky: -7%
Davesnave: -7%
Harryhound: -10%
Michaels: -12%
Thrugelmir: -13%