Northern Ireland house crash 'among world's worst'

wanchai_2

mistral001 wrote: »

i saw the spotlight programme last night (got the repeat on bbc2 as well).

I found it refreshingly imformative. Good to get some serious reporting and interviews with people that have their finger on the pulse. Looks like the bcc ni have finally wakened up to the fact that serious business reporting matters to their viewers.

The nama bit fasinated me. Never heard of it before.

As for the interviews with the guy who blamed the bank for lending him too much money and the interview with the couple from dromore who were worried about not making a huge profit they thought they were going to make (but still not make a loss), that was just bbc ni reverting back to old-style reporting and they will be forgiven for their lapse there as it only took up a small part of the programme. Bbc ni keep it up i say.

+1 ................

saverbuyer

A.L.D.A wrote: »

Don't worry I have read it. The figure of 20,000 (plus 2000 for those falling into total disrepair) goes back a fair bit before 2008. Those figures I think start somewhere in the Planning Services.

This may be of use Table 216

http://www.communities.gov.uk/housing/housingresearch/housingstatistics/housingstatisticsby/housebuilding/livetables/

We built completed 8040 last year but starts are trending towards 6000.

If the figure of 20,000 was correct we have NEVER built that number in any year. I prefer a more pragmatic approach, how many houses and how long is the realistic life expectancy coupled with population trends. None of the reports I have read impress. There are also a lot of houses and 'apartments' that I would consider unfit. They should never have been allowed. 6 tiny apartments in a Victorian terrace house, you wouldn't believe some I have seen.

I agree about the dole drops, really annoys me that a system allows someone to claim to be living separately, taking up a unit that someone could well need so that they can get a few extra pounds. They are less prevalent than they once were so maybe there is some tightening up.


Does anyone know of a good place to get figures related to mortgages issued in NI. I can get UK figures from Bank of England. Not trying to score any points, but would help us all get a better feel of what is happening here.

Sorry found the report

Regional Development Strategy (RDS) 2025

It's actually 190000 between 2008-2025.

11,150. So we're not far off on completions.

I think we'll not need anywhere near that amount. The poles are gone and HB cuts will force the 33% single households to move in together.

More than enough supply with all those vacant units, unsold houses and many many rentals.

Chickabee

tara747 wrote: »

That was a real wake up call last night for Joe Public. Prof Michael Moore's assertion that there will be no recovery within the life of most mortgages in place today must have sent a chill down quite a lot of spines. 44,000 HOUSEHOLDS in negative equity!!!


All in all, a very hard-hitting programme on the NI property market, possibly the scariest yet.

I find it hard to agree with Prof Michael Moores idea that property prices won't recover within the life time of a 25yr mortgage. Even if you bought a house a couple of years ago that cost for example £150k, and even now if it was only worth say £100k in a worse case scenario i think its reasonable to think that by the end of your mortgage in 23yrs time that the property should be worth at least what you paid for it. With inflation etc prices cannot be stagnant. Or am i being too optimistic?

Mistral001

Chickabee wrote: »

I find it hard to agree with Prof Michael Moores idea that property prices won't recover within the life time of a 25yr mortgage. Even if you bought a house a couple of years ago that cost for example £150k, and even now if it was only worth say £100k in a worse case scenario i think its reasonable to think that by the end of your mortgage in 23yrs time that the property should be worth at least what you paid for it. With inflation etc prices cannot be stagnant. Or am i being too optimistic?

It was a bold statement, agree and he will look a bit of a numscull if house prices rise back to what they were at in 2007 in 10 years time.

However, perhaps that £150k house might actually be only worth £75K today and could fall more in price. So if rock bottom does not happen until say four years time when the house has gone down to say 55K then in fact you would need the house to almost triple in price in a space of 19 years for him to be worng. With banks and housebuyers learning from their mistakes the rise in house prices will difinitely be slower than in the last 19 years. Maybe that is the way he has worked it out. I wish I new how he actually did work it out. Does anybody know.

wanchai_2

Chickabee wrote: »

I find it hard to agree with Prof Michael Moores idea that property prices won't recover within the life time of a 25yr mortgage. Even if you bought a house a couple of years ago that cost for example £150k, and even now if it was only worth say £100k in a worse case scenario i think its reasonable to think that by the end of your mortgage in 23yrs time that the property should be worth at least what you paid for it. With inflation etc prices cannot be stagnant. Or am i being too optimistic?

I think you're being too optimistic tbh. The £150k house may now be worth only £50k - this *is* the case in some areas!! It's unrealistic to expect these prices to recover within a generation. A ten-year timeframe is hopelessly optimistic, I'm afraid. We're 4.5 years past the peak and prices are still falling, with nothing at all to support them.

He didn't say 'in real terms' but that is what he meant. In addition, cpnsider the total cost over the life of the mortgage - typically 2x yhe amount borrowed. Inflation in wages will be needed for any recovery in prices and that just isn't happening. Add the fact that 44,000 households are in negative equity - that's a lot of people who won't be active in the property market anytime soon.

Put simply, if I had bought a house between 2005 and 2008, I would be feeling very sick right now...

warmhands.coldheart

I'm currently in the process of buying a house (If the bank will lend the money but thats a different story!!)
The offer that was accepted is 30% less than the Rateable Value listed on the LPS website and that is in what I would call a "desirable" location in South Belfast!
I recon about easily 60% down on what it would have fetched at the height of the property boom
That should give you an idea of what to expect....

doire_2

Mistral001 wrote: »

One other thing is that I hear stories of "oh the bank owns that development" in the cases of developments that are half finished where the developer is still building but at about a quarter of the rate of production they had planned.

Does anybody know anything about that. Are the banks sitting with lots of property as assets?

BTW there is a Spotlight programme on BBC NI this evening about property. The trailers I have seen suggest that things are not looking good for property market.

What do you mean not looking good? Do you mean that HPI isnt still getting out of hand meaning would be buyers take on a huge debt to own a place to live? What about FTB?

The market is correcting itself and this can only be a good thing

saverbuyer

warmhands.coldheart wrote: »

I'm currently in the process of buying a house (If the bank will lend the money but thats a different story!!)
The offer that was accepted is 30% less than the Rateable Value listed on the LPS website and that is in what I would call a "desirable" location in South Belfast!
I recon about easily 60% down on what it would have fetched at the height of the property boom
That should give you an idea of what to expect....

Thanks for the info. My thinking is 30% under RV for my South Belfast target area also.

warmhands.coldheart

saverbuyer wrote: »

Thanks for the info. My thinking is 30% under RV for my South Belfast target area also.

Needs a bit of modernising but then its all old fogies that live in South Belfast :rotfl::rotfl:

saverbuyer

Chickabee wrote: »

I find it hard to agree with Prof Michael Moores idea that property prices won't recover within the life time of a 25yr mortgage. Even if you bought a house a couple of years ago that cost for example £150k, and even now if it was only worth say £100k in a worse case scenario i think its reasonable to think that by the end of your mortgage in 23yrs time that the property should be worth at least what you paid for it. With inflation etc prices cannot be stagnant. Or am i being too optimistic?

The house might be worth 150k in ten years yes but if a loaf of bread costs 10 quid....