Little bit bored, so...

Graham_Devon

How about we list our thoughts on why property will rise, or fall.

Give's us an idea of the total weight of reasonings, and can look to base a decision on the outcome.

So I shall start, and if I see any proper suggestions, will aim to update this. Realise this is completely geeky, but every other thread seems to just be going over the same stuff.

Reasons for falls
- Cost of living increasing
- Mortgages declining
- Interest rates can only go one way, but accept this could take years.
- Wage's not really rising, we may see reports of "decent" percentages, but to most "normal" families, these percentages are not achieved and if they are are swallowed up by one cost rise.
- Rising Unemployment
- Banks returning to responsible lending
- Job insecurity
- Lack of confidence in buying

Reasons for rises
- Lack of supply and lack of building, population growing
- Lenders may get creative in the future
- May be a taxpayer supported scheme of some sort in the future
- Upcoming generation about to hit 30's




I purposely haven't gone on and on, to allow for other suggestions. Let's see how many valid reasons we can gather to look at the weightings. When I say valid I mean something that could happen, based on todays policies. Not guestimates on what the government may or may not do....afterall, all the changes in policies and new attempts to prop things up has made every single one of us wrong.

DervProf

Falls

Fragile economy
Low wage growth
Rising unemployment
Banks returning to responsible lending
Reduced property !!!!!! on TV
Interest rates already low, and can't go much lower

Rises

Shortage of property
Possibility that lenders might start getting "creative" again
Prices might eventually reach a level where they are truly affordable (for a while)

undetterred

Go for a pint instead,eh?

lynzpower

Another couple of reason for falling prices:
massive job insecurity, the rise of the zero hour contract: the lack of permanent jobs
Rising rents leaving less to save
Shocking interest rates for savers
lack of confidence in buying still

Rising prices:
a few footballers and investors from the middle east buy a over priced pile of bricks in chelsea = boom, is it not?
Some taxpayer backed scheme to support FTB mortgages for further propping, if it happens.

nickj_2

low interest rates are the only thing keeping the housing market afloat
if people who had borrowed beyond their means and were struggling 3-4 years ago then the
drop in interest rates would have taken the pressure off , however that slack has been eaten away by the rise in the cost of living and either no pay or below inflation rises

chewmylegoff

I do like your balanced opening post, obviously spent equal time considering both sides of the argument!

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Fall

Reason: Its only just begun



Rise

Reason: Muppets thinking they have bought at the bottom before the carp hits the fan next year.

sheffield_lad

Fall:
Well it has to doesn't it? Everyone yes everyone says so since 2003 with PPC the biggest voice of all yet after the worst recession in living memory house prices have bliped but not really fallen at all?

Rise:
1, Lack of housing, massive shortage of 3/4 bed properties. We need 3 cities the size of Birmingham to be built in the next 10yrs just to stand still!!! Thats will not make housing an easier than now though that just has to happen.

2, Private rental, if you told someone you privately rented a few years ago you got the reply 'your throwing money away' now its as common as buying or having council accommodation. Council houses have now to be on I need a council house not I want a council house. We have seen small private landlords but I see bigger and bigger players entering this market snapping up properties before they become available on the open market.


My own view is a balance of the 3 and stagnation for a while until the economy picks up.

SteveV2

I think the banks are the only scales of power in this one.

Interest rates.

If they stay low, people can sit on their houses, waiting for the 'right' buyer to come along. The 'I paid £x for this house, i'm not selling it for any less' brigade.

If they rise, people might find their repayments too much to handle and have to sell up or lose the lot.


Lending.

Freely lending, will always push prices up. All the people that want to buy a house will be able to.

Tight lending, There's alot less buyers, mainly FTBs. They prop the whole thing up imo.


So now, we are low rates and tight lending. Property will be about where we are this time next year.

Joe_Bloggs

My thoughts are that house prices will always fluctuate and will still continue to do so. Such is the nature of a market given regional variations in employment / housing demand / housing supply /the economic outlook/ the number of those trapped by poor LTV/ mortgage availability/ the relative cost of renting/ the supply of social housing/ etc ... ... .
J_B.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Reasons for rises
.

- Biggest generation of FTB age people in history are about to start reaching their early 30's. It'll be 2035 before there are as few people of FTB age again as there are today.

- Current house building is at record lows. We built 400,000 houses a year in the 1960's, it's more like 100,000 today.

- Population is growing by 450,000 people a year, additional households are being created at the rate of 250,000+ a year, the vacant stock levels are shrinking rapidly.

And that's all you really need....