Coopers mill, dundonald

A.L.D.A

wanchai wrote: »

There will be economies of scale when building a development, so the cost per unit will be a fair bit lower than for a one-off house.

True if there is a steady flow of work, but there are also additional costs such as road adoptions.


If it is part of a much larger development, as pointed out by SaverBuyer, then is there any need for haste? If it is the particular house type you are interested in then check the planning approval and see if that house type is continued on into the development. Sometimes you have 'show house' feature houses near the main entrance and more normal designs as you go into a development.

shalis

Thankyou A.L.D.A and saverbuyer for your input. I am definitely NOT thinking of selling or indeed buying, period. I was just interested in views as I know someone who was considering buying there, as well as someone who is now living there. The houses are nice but I did not know that they plan to build as many houses there. Mind you with the present economic climate that seems a very high number!! My suspicions seem to have been confirmed about it being overpriced though. One could be forgiven for concluding that the current recession is going to be very long indeed. Lots of people may well end up in negative equity which is horrendous. I am very glad that I am not in the housing market at the moment and am very unlikely to be in the near future. I just feel so sorry for those who are looking to buy their first house.

A.L.D.A

Shalis

One other point that SaverBuyer and I have very different views on and that is medium term availability (when, if) there is a return to fairly normal liquidity. SaverBuyer takes the view that there are lots of empty houses and therefore no possibility of a housing shortage. I take the view that we are building below the number we need to replace those that have fallen into total disrepair or are uneconomic to fix, plus the number needed to house a growing population. I think we need to be either building or repairing at a greater rate than we are at present.

On the plus side there are development sites now being sold for a pittance. This is good as a large percentage of the cost of new houses was site purchase so (in theory) it will enable developers to build and sell at lower overall prices. They will also try to increase overall profit!! However IMO construction costs are unlikely to fall further and the flow of (once grossly overpriced sites) that Banks want to off load is not infinite so somewhere in the future site availability will become an issue again unless there are significant changes in Planning Legislation. (PPS21 helps).

From memory there are between 700,000 to 720,000 households in NI. It is useful to keep that in mind when people mention house numbers. Last time I looked we were building around 6000 houses a year and I doubt if that figure has improved. My view is that that figure is too low and and if there is an eventual stabilisation it will influence the supply side. Alternatively if the recession trundles on it will end up as grief for those at the bottom of the ladder.

Others have different views, and will mention the number of empty houses or houses not completed, and some believe that more people are likely to leave NI etc. etc. Problem I see with those arguments is that many of the empty houses or those not completed need work done to them, and unless people start investing that will not happen. Also I have no reason to believe that the population of NI is actually dropping or even stabilising. There are also arguements about the rental returns being propped up by the government.

In truth it is anyone's guess, but if anyone is thinking of purchase then just keep vigilant. There are other factors regarding how long you can put such decisions on hold and the tenancy agreements for rental, which I consider very poor for most tenants. This will become more apparent if ever there is a stabilisation.

saverbuyer

A.L.D.A wrote: »

Shalis

One other point that SaverBuyer and I have very different views on and that is medium term availability (when, if) there is a return to fairly normal liquidity. SaverBuyer takes the view that there are lots of empty houses and therefore no possibility of a housing shortage. I take the view that we are building below the number we need to replace those that have fallen into total disrepair or are uneconomic to fix, plus the number needed to house a growing population. I think we need to be either building or repairing at a greater rate than we are at present.

On the plus side there are development sites now being sold for a pittance. This is good as a large percentage of the cost of new houses was site purchase so (in theory) it will enable developers to build and sell at lower overall prices. They will also try to increase overall profit!! However IMO construction costs are unlikely to fall further and the flow of (once grossly overpriced sites) that Banks want to off load is not infinite so somewhere in the future site availability will become an issue again unless there are significant changes in Planning Legislation. (PPS21 helps).

From memory there are between 700,000 to 720,000 households in NI. It is useful to keep that in mind when people mention house numbers. Last time I looked we were building around 6000 houses a year and I doubt if that figure has improved. My view is that that figure is too low and and if there is an eventual stabilisation it will influence the supply side. Alternatively if the recession trundles on it will end up as grief for those at the bottom of the ladder.

Others have different views, and will mention the number of empty houses or houses not completed, and some believe that more people are likely to leave NI etc. etc. Problem I see with those arguments is that many of the empty houses or those not completed need work done to them, and unless people start investing that will not happen. Also I have no reason to believe that the population of NI is actually dropping or even stabilising. There are also arguements about the rental returns being propped up by the government.

In truth it is anyone's guess, but if anyone is thinking of purchase then just keep vigilant. There are other factors regarding how long you can put such decisions on hold and the tenancy agreements for rental, which I consider very poor for most tenants. This will become more apparent if ever there is a stabilisation.

I think the difference here between ALDA and me is that I like to take an evidence based approach and look at actual figures. He talks about the need to build more houses but won’t say where this magic demand will come from. I say there are 60,000 vacant houses and 5,000 ghost estates along with the 6000-10000 they are currently building each year. I say that we are seeing an exodus of Eastern European labour here. I say we have no homeless people. I say the housing executive waiting lists are open to all and mean little. He provides housing services and surprise surprise says we need to do what? Oh yes build more houses. Kind of like an estate agent saying we need to sell more.
I think figures speak better. I have no interest in housing unlike ALDA. We have loads of housing stock. I really wouldn’t worry about the demand side. We have lots of site supply out there.
Construction costs will also lower as we come out of recession (in x years) and the pound strengthens against other currencies.

tara747

shalis wrote: »

Thankyou A.L.D.A and saverbuyer for your input. I am definitely NOT thinking of selling or indeed buying, period. I was just interested in views as I know someone who was considering buying there, as well as someone who is now living there. The houses are nice but I did not know that they plan to build as many houses there. Mind you with the present economic climate that seems a very high number!! My suspicions seem to have been confirmed about it being overpriced though. One could be forgiven for concluding that the current recession is going to be very long indeed. Lots of people may well end up in negative equity which is horrendous. I am very glad that I am not in the housing market at the moment and am very unlikely to be in the near future. I just feel so sorry for those who are looking to buy their first house.

Er, why?? Anyone (like me) who is a potential FTB hasn't had it this good in years! :beer: House prices are falling like stones, meaning that when we do buy, we will be buying low, with big deposits (extra few years of saving, y'see) and tiny mortgages.

Save your sympathy for those who bought between 2004 and 2008... they are in deep negative equity and will be for *years* to come.

A.L.D.A

saverbuyer wrote: »

I think the difference here between ALDA and me is that I like to take an evidence based approach and look at actual figures. etc etc etc etc

That is simply untrue. There is such a thing as being selective in who we chose to listen too. The points you raise have validity, but so also has does the various Housing Associations, the Housing Executive and all the rest. It would be true that they have vested interests, but that is not a good enough reason to discard all they say. Everyone has a vested interest, first time buyers have vested interests, house owners have vested interests, few don't. I think the overall is a lot more complex than the position you seem to convey.

As for sterling increasing in value you know it is more complicated than that. Increase in value against which currencies, what about inflation abroad, or commodity markets? I would not pin my hopes on future construction costs on a revival in the value of Sterling. Also labour costs are rock bottom at present. The tendency will be for construction costs to increase.

Yes I have interests in construction, but as I have told you before what would suit me best is low site values and not high house prices. I do not want to see either developers or house purchasers impoverished. Why would I??????????? I don't earn commissions on sale values or overall development costs. I would prefer people to have more disposable income. My interests are the very opposite to what you seem to assume. Apart from that I have over 30 years experience and retirement looms and over and over I have advocated caution at this moment in time.

tara747 wrote: »

Er, why?? Anyone (like me) who is a potential FTB hasn't had it this good in years! :beer: House prices are falling like stones, meaning that when we do buy, we will be buying low, with big deposits (extra few years of saving, y'see) and tiny mortgages.

Save your sympathy for those who bought between 2004 and 2008... they are in deep negative equity and will be for *years* to come.

I agree about those that purchased after 2004; people panicked into borrowing to much and facilitated by people who earned commissions based on the amount borrowed. An utter disgrace. Their only short term hope for quick correction is a period of high inflation (not stagflation). From 2005 on I was strongly advising many not to buy, few took the slightest notice. Panick or a herd instinct had set in.

I suppose the trick is trying to guess when the market is bottoming out. I can't see prices increasing between now and next spring, so what is to be lost by waiting and reconsidering overall economic trends in the spring? I would only buy a house now if I had a very good reason to do so. However if I had spare cash I would certainly consider buying some of the cheaper development sites that are being off loaded and I would sit on them until there was some clear evidence of stability.

saverbuyer

A.L.D.A wrote: »

That is simply untrue. There is such a thing as being selective in who we chose to listen too. The points you raise have validity, but so also has does the various Housing Associations, the Housing Executive and all the rest. It would be true that they have vested interests, but that is not a good enough reason to discard all they say. Everyone has a vested interest, first time buyers have vested interests, house owners have vested interests, few don't. I think the overall is a lot more complex than the position you seem to convey.

As for sterling increasing in value you know it is more complicated than that. Increase in value against which currencies, what about inflation abroad, or commodity markets? I would not pin my hopes on future construction costs on a revival in the value of Sterling. Also labour costs are rock bottom at present. The tendency will be for construction costs to increase.

Yes I have interests in construction, but as I have told you before what would suit me best is low site values and not high house prices. I do not want to see either developers or house purchasers impoverished. Why would I??????????? I don't earn commissions on sale values or overall development costs. I would prefer people to have more disposable income. My interests are the very opposite to what you seem to assume. Apart from that I have over 30 years experience and retirement looms and over and over I have advocated caution at this moment in time.






I agree about those that purchased after 2004; people panicked into borrowing to much and facilitated by people who earned commissions based on the amount borrowed. An utter disgrace. Their only short term hope for quick correction is a period of high inflation (not stagflation). From 2005 on I was strongly advising many not to buy, few took the slightest notice. Panick or a herd instinct had set in.

I suppose the trick is trying to guess when the market is bottoming out. I can't see prices increasing between now and next spring, so what is to be lost by waiting and reconsidering overall economic trends in the spring? I would only buy a house now if I had a very good reason to do so. However if I had spare cash I would certainly consider buying some of the cheaper development sites that are being off loaded and I would sit on them until there was some clear evidence of stability.

You have been actively encouraging speculation on both rental houses and sites.

You have tried to validate this by saying there is a shortage of house or will be in the not too distant future.

You have provided no evidence of where this “demand” will come from or this supply shortage. Have have provided evidence of the vacant homes and ghost estates. I can show the 25000 house currently for sale or the thousands for rent.

I suggest you look at the fundamentals. Always look at the fundamentals.

This speculation is what has got us here in the first place.

It doesn’t surprise me that you are near retirement. This attitude on property speculation is the reason we are here and so typical of your generation. Prices always go up blah blah blah.

You talk like inflation will be the salvation of those people who bought from 2000 onwards; well I have news for you this is not like the 80s. We DO NOT HAVE WAGE INFLATION.

Inflation will not be these poor people saviour but their undoing.

What should people like Tara and me bailout the reckless borrowers who followed advice like you are spouting now?

This is the biggest banking crisis ever. We have the biggest personal and sovereign debt ever. Interest rates are at their lowest in history. EVERY SINGLE scrap of evidence points to a lessening of living standards and you think it’s a good idea to get a BTL paid for by housing benefit or a random site. Seriously?

Do this young generation a favour and stop promoting property speculation.

wanchai_2

A.L.D.A wrote: »

I agree about those that purchased after 2004; people panicked into borrowing to much and facilitated by people who earned commissions based on the amount borrowed. An utter disgrace. Their only short term hope for quick correction is a period of high inflation (not stagflation). From 2005 on I was strongly advising many not to buy, few took the slightest notice. Panick or a herd instinct had set in.

I suppose the trick is trying to guess when the market is bottoming out. I can't see prices increasing between now and next spring, so what is to be lost by waiting and reconsidering overall economic trends in the spring? I would only buy a house now if I had a very good reason to do so. However if I had spare cash I would certainly consider buying some of the cheaper development sites that are being off loaded and I would sit on them until there was some clear evidence of stability.

Speculation? I just want a home that costs a reasonable amount of money.

Spring 2012 is too short a timeframe. All economic indicators point to house price falling further over the next couple of years and there is *nothing* to indicate that they will rise. Also, importantly, people's expectations are that they will cotinnue to fall, which as we all know can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Oh, and wages are static while inflation is rising - so FTBs are *very* thin on the ground!

I know we'll certainly be sitting it out for a while, we will add to our deposit funds in the meantime. There's no harm in missing the bottom, you'll still buy at almost the cheapest point in the cycle!!