Home repossessions creep up, mortgage lenders say

Pimperne1

Mallotum_X wrote: »

Not quite sure how you can say it proves anything. If BTL was stepping in then wouldnt there be more BTL than before rather than a lot less?

All it does show is that there is some return to the market from BTL'ers. We have to wait to see if it will be sustained, let alone replace the lost sales/ provide a safety net.

We also dont have any indication in these figures of regional trends. It may be that BTL is growing in say London but still falling elsewhere.

On the limited info available it is simply way too early to be jumping to such conclusions.


The graphs are interesting, although I hoped when I pressed the link they would show the 90s. I assume levels are lower now than in the 90s crash?

Relying on this really, BtLers are returning to the market:

"Separate figures published by the CML show that there was a 16% rise in the number of new buy-to-let loans advanced to landlords to 34,500 in the third quarter compared with the previous three months.
The number and value of these loans were at their highest level since the final three months of 2008".

Part of the problem at the moment is that there aren't sufficient mortgages available at decent rates, when that improves then I suspect we will see a massive uptake by potential landlords.

Mallotum_X

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Relying on this really, BtLers are returning to the market:



Part of the problem at the moment is that there aren't sufficient mortgages available at decent rates, when that improves then I suspect we will see a massive uptake by potential landlords.

Although presumably if more/easier/cheaper BTL mortgages were available, then there would also be more/easier/cheaper homeowner mortgages available too.

If we accept rents are being pushed up by the shortage of credit for FTB's then if mortgage availablility improved for this group then rent presure would be downward, rental returns fall and BTL demand may be expected to fall as well.

I accept the point that some BTL are returning - I did highlight that part of the article after all - I just think its way to early to make any significant conclusions on the limited data available.

Pimperne1

Mallotum_X wrote: »

Although presumably if more/easier/cheaper BTL mortgages were available, then there would also be more/easier/cheaper homeowner mortgages available too.

If we accept rents are being pushed up by the shortage of credit for FTB's then if mortgage availablility improved for this group then rent presure would be downward, rental returns fall and BTL demand may be expected to fall as well.

I accept the point that some BTL are returning - I did highlight that part of the article after all - I just think its way to early to make any significant conclusions on the limited data available.

Well if they are flagging up that BtL numbers have increased I assume that home owner numbers are not up (or not up by so much). I would assume then that if BtLers are already prepared to take the jump in the current climate before home owners then when the market frees up more BtLers will be prepared to take the jump in comparison to the number of home owners.

I accept that I could be wrong though.

Mallotum_X

wotsthat wrote: »

You are now the owner of a cheap internet point - enjoy.

Rather than setting up a self help group for people who have been repossessed I thought we were discussing the wider data.

Clearly it would be devastating to be repossessed but the figures show that despite the economy the number is small and barely increasing.

OK, a pedantic point, but whilst on the face of it the figures are not significantly bad, they are not that great either. We have had a lot of support put in place to help struggling mortgage holders, yet 9000+ homes are being reposessed a quarter. Thats still quite a significant number, given the low rates, reluctance of banks to repo and government schemes to help struggling mortgagees.

Mallotum_X

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Well if they are flagging up that BtL numbers have increased I assume that home owner numbers are not up (or not up by so much). I would assume then that if BtLers are already prepared to take the jump in the current climate before home owners then when the market frees up more BtLers will be prepared to take the jump in comparison to the number of home owners.

I accept that I could be wrong though.

Perhaps, although it depends on who the BTLers are, generally BTL mortgages are needing reasonable sized deposits. So the reasons behind the investment would be interesting to know, is the current growth in BTL as a result of mom-and-pop style retirement investments or corporate. Are they investing based on current low returns for cash they have or to build a long term portfolio. Without knowing a who and where the increases are makes it hard to anticipate what will happen next.

If the current flat market continues, especially with low interst rates then asuming nothing else significant happens then this growth may well be sustained. It depends how much potential deposit money is sat out there looking for a home and what the banks decide to do next. Stable prices may well get the banks lending more at lower deposit levels.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Mallotum_X wrote: »

OK, a pedantic point, but whilst on the face of it the figures are not significantly bad, they are not that great either.

Well you wouldn't exactly expect them to be great with unemployment at 2.5 million and the economy still struggling.

But compared to the 90's crash, which saw around 90,000 repossessions in some years, I'd say it's a vast improvement.

We have had a lot of support put in place to help struggling mortgage holders, yet 9000+ homes are being reposessed a quarter. Thats still quite a significant number, given the low rates, reluctance of banks to repo and government schemes to help struggling mortgagees.

It is a significant number, and represents a lot of human misery.

It's also 8% less than last year, below projections for this year, and around half the level of the last crash, so we should all be thankful that the various interventions put in place are working as well as they are.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well you wouldn't exactly expect them to be great with unemployment at 2.5 million and the economy still struggling.

But compared to the 90's crash, which saw around 90,000 repossessions in some years, I'd say it's a vast improvement.



It is a significant number, and represents a lot of human misery.

It's also 8% less than last year, below projections for this year, and around half the level of the last crash, so we should all be thankful that the various interventions put in place are working as well as they are.

Up till now.

You are comparing a finished "crash" with the one today that we don't know if we have finished, are half way through or only 5% through.

In other words, don't count your chickens too soon.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Up till now.

You are comparing a finished "crash" with the one today that we don't know if we have finished, are half way through or only 5% through.
.

This crash ended in Feb 2009.

Then prices recovered significantly until early 2010, and have since pretty much stagnated.

A lot like last time, actually, with many years of bumping along the bottom after sharp initial falls.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

This crash ended in Feb 2009.

Oh right.

Thanks for the insight. Can see where you are coming from now. Any falls now will be seen as a "new crash" in Hamish world.....

Well I hope we never see you describing peak as 2007 in that case. Will have to be 2010 sometime.

robmatic

Mallotum_X wrote: »

OK, a pedantic point, but whilst on the face of it the figures are not significantly bad, they are not that great either. We have had a lot of support put in place to help struggling mortgage holders, yet 9000+ homes are being reposessed a quarter. Thats still quite a significant number, given the low rates, reluctance of banks to repo and government schemes to help struggling mortgagees.

To be honest, 9000 repossessions per quarter in the middle of a recession for a nation of 60 million people seems pretty small.