How much further will stock markets fall?

sabretoothtigger

competitionscafe wrote: »

S&P PE ratio is still a fair way above the long term average:
http://www.multpl.com/

PE is historical, it cant predict what will happen just gives an indication of relative value previously. The price and earnings can rise and the PE stays the same, Im not arguing for a profit growth scenario or a great value situation.
Im saying the nominal index levels are likely to rise in comparison to sterling

According to this:
"The valuation levels to which we became accustomed in the 1980s and 1990s reflected the halcyon baby boomer
growth years. It would seem we now face a reversion to the longer term mean."
http://www.veritas-asset.com/Files/Documents/ClientLetters/Private%20Client%20Letter%20Oct11.pdf

Baby boomer is a western term and ignores that population growth in the east (outside of Japan) or globally has always been higher and still is.
Its a self centered view, a bias we all share. I'd have to presume only USA or similar can create global growth, dont agree

At 2839, the FTSE ALL Share index is lower than it was at the beginning of this century, nearly 12 years ago: http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTAS#symbol=%5Eftas;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

I used to own it, it is cheap and despite some growth by some many companys had terrible losses. If companies on average go sideways with a weak currency the index figure rises

"Persistent inflation and an oversized shadow banking system and allied property bubble are now threatening the smooth running of the powerful Chinese engine."
http://www.ruffer.co.uk/cmsfiles/reports/RTRF_Monthly_report.pdf

Inflation will persist as long as they maintain a false currency value. Its politics and currency not company weakness


Inflation isnt a positive or give growth but prices will rise

Conrad

omeuwen wrote: »

Stock markets could well fall a lot further, if China continues to cool and further US, British and French banks fall...

And..................

Prices rise and fall but people still make money. The best days to invest are always down days anyway.

Some of you guys who come accross as so certain of falls are classic Hedgehogs which by EVERY study ever done are always shown to be more likely to be wrong than those with more moderate changing views.


It's like those simplistc claims it was better to rent than but in say 2006, but such a simple minded theroy didn't take account of the ever present unknowables, in this case that of uber low interest rates.

In other words dont pretend you can time markets or total market outcomes, you cant.

sabretoothtigger

RE: baby boomers over. This Scottish women has had 20 kids! :eek:
Its important to note UK has positive population growth, if anything I read scare headlines about it but we are sharply contrasted to places like Spain

http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20543686,00.html?hpt=hp_t2

Thrugelmir

Weak results from HSBC today.

Comet being sold for £2

M&S profits down.

Little good news to drive markets upwards at the moment.