Home Truths 2011

Graham_Devon

Some interest statistics...

Pick your area and discuss!

These are all PDFs
North West: http://www.housing.org.uk/idoc.ashx?docid=f0cc8753-9d48-4a6c-8172-3b88faf0b886&version=-1
South West: http://www.housing.org.uk/our_regions/south_west_region/south_west_news/idoc.ashx?docid=f8fe9e95-195d-4ef3-a3ad-dd3cdeaeb25f&version=-1
Yorkshire and Humberside: http://www.housing.org.uk/idoc.ashx?docid=ebe0d28d-e83c-43f5-8223-c72724fa0fbe&version=-1
North East: http://www.housing.org.uk/idoc.ashx?docid=bd273035-de09-4c73-bd3f-14c244f5019c&version=-1

Don't seem to have other areas just yet, assume they release them as and when. Just have older 2010 statistics here: http://www.housing.org.uk/publications/home_truths_list.aspx?c=101

Key statistic for the North West for example is that housing is still 126% more expensive than 10 years ago.

Statistics banquet.

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Key statistic for the North West for example is that housing is still 126% more expensive than 10 years ago.

Statistics banquet.

Do they make those stats up, I just fed a number into the Nationwide HPI and it came up with

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Results:-
A property located in North West which was valued at £100000 in Q3 of 2001, would be worth approximately £185745 in Q3 of 2011. This is equivalent to a change of 85.74%.
[/FONT]

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

Do they make those stats up,

Yes. They are all just made up.

They do it for fun.

StevieJ

While we are at it

Despite the recession, house prices in the North West
are still 16% higher than in 2005

Results:-
A property located in North West which was valued at £100000 in Q3 of 2005, would be worth approximately £93686 in Q3 of 2011. This is equivalent to a change of -6.31%.

Cleaver

The average house price in the North West in 2010
was £159,805, more than eight times the average
regional income.

I love stats.

Another way of looking at this is that a full time working couple in the North West who have a 20% deposit only need to borrow 3.2x their wage to borrow the money needed to buy the average house. If they got a 4% mortgage then their monthly repayments would be £682, or 20% of their gross income. That seems pretty decent to me?

I know, I know, people have kids, not everyone works etc. etc. But it only 43% of households forming each year are having houses built for them in the North West (a stat from that report) then isn't is the case that the couples such as the one in my example who can easily afford the average house on an average wage will buy the nice 3-bed semis whilst those 'average' households with kids and part time workers will buy the smaller houses?

Just to look at it in a really optimistic way, let's say we have a couple in their late twenties who both live in a typical North West Town like Warrington. He's a nurse with three years experience earning £23.5k and she's a teacher also with three years experience earning £24k. They have been saving for a deposit for five years and want to buy a house now before having kids in five years time in their late thirties. They can buy this house in Warrington for the £160k average North West price.



They buy the house and as they got a 4% mortgage and need to save before having kids they decide to devote 30% of their income to their mortgage rather than just the minimum 20%. Therefore they pay £990 a month towards their mortgage for five years, rather than the standard £682.

After five years they'll owe £90k on the mortgage. If we assume that the house is still worth £160 after this time they have £70k equity in the home. Time to start thinking about having kids and if they chose to they could now reduce their mortgage payments to £500 or £600 a months. In the jobs they're in you'd hope they'd both be on £30k or so at this point.

I know, it's one of those Cleaver ideal situations like I like to portray. But in the world where houses aren't being built aren't the couples I portray above going to be the ones buying the houses?

And I guess I'm just saying that a very basic stat such as the one in the reoprt which says "AVERAGE NORTH WEST HOUSE IS EIGHT TIMES INCOME!!" might not be as bad as you think when you think about it. What the report tells me is that housing in the North West seems overly expensive and above what people can afford to pay. But not by that much.

Graham_Devon

Can't deny, it's a very nice house for 160k.

I often see people trying to sell their 3 bed, lovely homes on the house selling forum on here. They are under 100k, and people are saying reduce the price! Just can't believe it sometimes! I think a lot of my viewpoints come from what I see around me. And that house above would be demanding 240-300k.

Cleaver

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Can't deny, it's a very nice house for 160k.

I often see people trying to sell their 3 bed, lovely homes on the house selling forum on here.

Then you see the Rightmove link and you quickly see why it's not selling.

It is a nice house, and if it's up for £160k then you could probably get it for around £145k. I've said before that my reasons for buying a house would not be driven by finances, but if they were I wouldn't be buying a house for that money in the North West right now as I think houses will get a bit cheaper over the next few years. Certainly don't think they'll be rising anyway.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Can't deny, it's a very nice house for 160k.

I often see people trying to sell their 3 bed, lovely homes on the house selling forum on here. They are under 100k, and people are saying reduce the price! Just can't believe it sometimes! I think a lot of my viewpoints come from what I see around me. And that house above would be demanding 240-300k.

So why do you think that is Graham?

Why are houses near you 300K, and yet similar houses are 160K near Cleaver?

Cleaver

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Why are houses near you 300K, and yet similar houses are 160K near Cleaver?

Because Warrington is a bit of a sh*thole. Can I make it clear right now that I don't live in, or that near to, Warrington! Apologies of course to those in Warrington, I'm sure it has certain charms for certain people...

Edit: Y'know, that's unfair, it isn't a sh*thole at all. It's just not the type of place I'd choose to live - I was brought up in a town similar in size and feel to Warrington and I just don't like places like that.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Cleaver wrote: »

Because Warrington is a bit of a sh*thole.

Just as I'm sure there are plenty of places in Devon that Graham would categorise similarly, where you can buy a 3 bed house for 160K.

But the question to Graham stands.

Why do you think prices in Devon or Cornwall are higher than similar places in the North of England?

kabayiri

Cleaver wrote: »

Because Warrington is a bit of a sh*thole. Can I make it clear right now that I don't live in, or that near to, Warrington! Apologies of course to those in Warrington, I'm sure it has certain charms for certain people...

Edit: Y'know, that's unfair, it isn't a sh*thole at all. It's just not the type of place I'd choose to live - I was brought up in a town similar in size and feel to Warrington and I just don't like places like that.

A relative has just sold a detached house in Warrington and has bought another detached house in Warrington. Not remarkably bigger really.

..but the new house was double the price she sold the first for.

Even in Warrington it's all relative ! Nice bits, and okay bits, and bad bits.