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Economic growth picks up - 0.5%
Comments
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Maybe.
Has the UK government actually done any austerity yet? Because the institute for fiscal studies seems to think they are spending more this year than last year.
It was on course last week?The deficit reduction strategy of the coalition government received a boost today following a report from the Office for National statistics (ONS) that public sector net borrowing (PSNB) fell to a lower than expected figure of £14.1 billion.
A further boost came when the ONS revised down the August PSNB figure by £2 billion to £13.7 billion. This means that George Osborne and the Treasury are on course to meet their deficit reduction target by the end of the financial year.
The UK’s total net debt now stands at £966.8 billion, equivalent to 62.6 per cent of GDP. The government has borrowed £63.5 billion so far this year, which is £7.5 billion less than for the same period last year.
The bit you posted seems to just show Central Government spending, I presume the ONS data includes Local governmnt and public corporation spending also.0 -
You mean like the people predicting GDP to be a minus figure today?
Don't think I predicted anything other than a drop to circa 4700 which I was about 3 weeks early on and a couple of points out.
As for Osborne & Cameron...... Their whole budget was based on growth far outweighing what we have & a recovery in Manufacturing.
That is hardly harmless speculation by them now is it?Not Again0 -
It was on course last week?
The figure you mention is the deficit. So, it includes changes to tax receipts. As far as I can see, the deficit is being reduced not because the UK government is spending less in real terms, but because it is taxing more.
In any case, I guess it depends by what you mean 'on course'. If you mean, it matches the forecast of the ONS, I agree.
According to the ONS, public sector net debt (not the deficit, the actual amount we owe) is £966.8 billion in september 2011 compared to £833.0 billion at the end of September 2010
Now, maybe I am wrong, maybe government spending is not actually increasing in real terms. As a non-expert, I could be confused.
In any case, you get into all kinds of interesting wibbly wobbly on statistics... where it could confuse someone like me. For example, if you look at the UK current account deficit, you note that it is down by 0.5% of GDP last quarter. As you know, GDP is related to export and imports...“The ideas of debtor and creditor as to what constitutes a good time never coincide.”
― P.G. Wodehouse, Love Among the Chickens0 -
From Howard Archer, IHS Global Insight:On the face of it GDP growth of 0.5% in the third quarter looks a reasonable performance. However, this undoubtedly overstates the underlying health of the economy.
It is evident that there was some boost to growth in the third quarter from the making up of activity that was lost to a number of “one-off” disruptive factors in the second quarter (working day lost to Royal Wedding, manufacturing supply-chain disruptions resulting from the Japanese tsunami, money spent on Olympic ticket sales but not yet counting towards growth etc).
Most recent data and survey evidence portray an economy that is struggling hugely, and it looks to be in serious danger of stagnating or even worse in the fourth quarter, as is highlighted by manufacturing activity contracting in October at the fastest rate since mid-20090 -
The figure you mention is the deficit. So, it includes changes to tax receipts. As far as I can see, the deficit is being reduced not because the UK government is spending less in real terms, but because it is taxing more.
In any case, I guess it depends by what you mean 'on course'. If you mean, it matches the forecast of the ONS, I agree.
According to the ONS, public sector net debt (not the deficit, the actual amount we owe) is £966.8 billion in september 2011 compared to £833.0 billion at the end of September 2010
Now, maybe I am wrong, maybe government spending is not actually increasing in real terms. As a non-expert, I could be confused.
In any case, you get into all kinds of interesting wibbly wobbly on statistics... where it could confuse someone like me. For example, if you look at the UK current account deficit, you note that it is down by 0.5% of GDP last quarter. As you know, GDP is related to export and imports...
Austerity means deficit cutting though, not just decreasing spending. So as we are borrowing less we are seeing austerity in action IMHO.0 -
Austerity means deficit cutting though, not just decreasing spending. So as we are borrowing less we are seeing austerity in action IMHO.
Not as I understand it. As I understand it, Austerity is the policy of cutting deficit via cutting spending. Otherwise, the Labour government under blair would have been carrying out a policy of Austerity, even though it was actually increasing the size of the state at record pace and spending bucket loads of money.“The ideas of debtor and creditor as to what constitutes a good time never coincide.”
― P.G. Wodehouse, Love Among the Chickens0 -
Not as I understand it. As I understand it, Austerity is the policy of cutting deficit via cutting spending. Otherwise, the Labour government under blair would have been carrying out a policy of Austerity, even though it was actually increasing the size of the state at record pace and spending bucket loads of money.
But they kept on increasing borrowing from 2001?
It is by reducing spending and increasing taxes, if they are on track to lower borrowing through austerity measures we must be carrying out austerity IMHO.
Goverment debt is forecast to keep increasing until 2015, so we can be in austerity without the debt figures declining and the budget deficit still negative.
So the Net Debt in reality is going to grow until the budget deficit turns round also, around 2015.0 -
But they kept on increasing borrowing from 2001?
It is by reducing spending and increasing taxes, if they are on track to lower borrowing through austerity measures we must be carrying out austerity IMHO.
Goverment debt is forecast to keep increasing until 2015, so we can be in austerity without the debt figures declining and the budget deficit still negative.
So the Net Debt in reality is going to grow until the budget deficit turns round also, around 2015.
Under the labour government, the UK fiscal balance went from being in deficit in 1997, to being in surplus in 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001.
I've never heard that period described as a policy of Austerity. It wasn't.“The ideas of debtor and creditor as to what constitutes a good time never coincide.”
― P.G. Wodehouse, Love Among the Chickens0 -
Under the labour government, the UK fiscal balance went from being in deficit in 1997, to being in surplus in 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001.
I've never heard that period described as a policy of Austerity. It wasn't.
Was that not down to the falling deficit (1994 onwards) they received when coming in to power.
It takes time to turn a tanker.
I don't think anyone thinks you go from big deficit to surplus over night.
To do that would take crippling cuts.0
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