U.K. Home Prices Decline as Outlook Worsens, Hometrack Says

ukcarper

crash123 wrote: »

Because property only ever goes up. This is correct isn`t it.( tongue in cheek).:T

What has that got to do with what I said? You don't think that if mortgages were made easier to get demand would increase. This bear chant property only ever goes up ha ha ha is wearing a bit thin people who have owned property for over 40 years have seen it go up and down many times so are well aware of what happens. .

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Linton wrote: »

You are still confusing the world that you would like with the world we have.

In the world (or the country) we live in there is insufficient housing for everyone to have a nice 4 bedroomed detached in a non-grotty part of the country. But there is sufficient for many 2-salary families to get one.

So what happens: the prices adjust so that the 2-salary families get their house and the 1 salary families dont.

If house prices miraculously halved so that 1 salary families could afford the nice 4-bedroomed detached would that mean they would all get one? Even if there arent sufficient available? In the bear world apparently it would.

Excellent post.

The reality is that prices are where they are because this country is facing a massive housing shortage.

We removed 70% of lending, yet prices are 10% below peak.

In other countries with a surplus instead of a shortage, when that lending was removed, and base rates were slashed, prices fell off a cliff and are still falling.

Going4TheDream

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Excellent post.

The reality is that prices are where they are because this country is facing a massive housing shortage.

We removed 70% of lending, yet prices are 10% below peak.

In other countries with a surplus instead of a shortage, when that lending was removed, and base rates were slashed, prices fell off a cliff and are still falling.

I am probably being a bit dim here, but can you explain housing shortage....do you mean we have thousands and thousands of homeless people or you mean we have thousands and thousands of people living in the wrong types of homes........?

mcc100

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The reality is that prices are where they are because this country is facing a massive housing shortage.

Nothing to do with the fact that the base rate has been 0.5% since March 2009 then .....

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

mcc100 wrote: »

Nothing to do with the fact that the base rate has been 0.5% since March 2009 then .....

Ireland = Near ZIRP base rates, bank bailouts, liquidity support, help for homeowners, etc. Prices down around 50% from peak.

USA = Near ZIRP base rates, bank bailouts, QE, help for homeowners, etc. Prices down around 40% from peak.

UK = Near Zirp base rates, bank bailouts, QE, help for homeowners, etc. Prices down 10% form peak.

There is one important difference though......

ROI housing vacancy rate = 17%.

USA housing vacancy rate = 13%.

UK housing vacancy rate = 3%. (and falling)

robmatic

Going4TheDream wrote: »

I am probably being a bit dim here, but can you explain housing shortage....do you mean we have thousands and thousands of homeless people or you mean we have thousands and thousands of people living in the wrong types of homes........?

I think it's more accurate to say that there is a housing distribution problem. In location terms, there is too little property available in the south-east where all the people and jobs are, and plenty of property in places like the north-west in towns which are in economic decline. In terms of the types of property on the market, it's clear that our housing market isn't very efficient, as people under utilise property and the new stock coming to market in recent years has been dominated by too many urban investment flats rather than houses to live in.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Going4TheDream wrote: »

I am probably being a bit dim here, but can you explain housing shortage....do you mean we have thousands and thousands of homeless people or you mean we have thousands and thousands of people living in the wrong types of homes........?

Both.

There are approximately 12,000 people in the UK classed as homeless in Q2 2011. That's up 17% on the same time last year.

There are a further 48,000 households in emergency temporary accommodation, such as B&B, in the UK at present, for a total of around 120,000 people.

As of today, over one million children (and 2.7 million people) are living in overcrowded housing. By 2013 that total is projected to exceed three million people.

And of course, 7.7 million houses in the UK fail to meet the governments "decent homes standard".

There can be no doubt that there is a massive shortage of housing in the places people want to live, of the type that people need, and where the employment exists to support them.

There are of course some areas with housing surpluses. But an empty house in Liverpool does little good to a family needing one in London.

crash123

ukcarper wrote: »

What has that got to do with what I said? You don't think that if mortgages were made easier to get demand would increase. This bear chant property only ever goes up ha ha ha is wearing a bit thin people who have owned property for over 40 years have seen it go up and down many times so are well aware of what happens. .

Yes I do think demand would increase but the problem was it was too easy to get a mortgage on 4 or 5 times your salary or even a liar loan.
People have been brainwashed by property programs and also that it is different this time.
Property does go up over the years but it should be affordable and corrections are needed. You just have to decide when to buy.

ukcarper

crash123 wrote: »

Yes I do think demand would increase but the problem was it was too easy to get a mortgage on 4 or 5 times your salary or even a liar loan.
People have been brainwashed by property programs and also that it is different this time.
Property does go up over the years but it should be affordable and corrections are needed. You just have to decide when to buy.

I'm not sure 4x is a problem but I agree too high multipliers have cause problems. I’m not sure that property is as unaffordable as some people think but a few years of stagnation would be a good thing.

crash123

ukcarper wrote: »

I'm not sure 4x is a problem but I agree too high multipliers have cause problems. I’m not sure that property is as unaffordable as some people think but a few years of stagnation would be a good thing.

I bought after the last crash and instead of buying a 2 bed we bought a 3 bed. maybe this time instead of buying a flat you can buy a 2 bed.
Stagnation may happen but I think we will have a slow decline for a few years so wages can catch up.