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Debate House Prices


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Property forecasts: 2012 and beyond

worldtraveller
worldtraveller Posts: 14,013 Forumite
Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
in Debate House Prices & the Economy
It’s that time of the year again. For those of you already depressed at what the value of your home is doing at the moment, turn away now, as the outlook for the next few years doesn’t get any better.

Knight Frank, the upmarket estate agent, this week kicked off the start of the latest round of residential market forecasts. I’m afraid it did not have an upbeat story to tell.
It estimates that average house prices in the UK will rise by 1.3 per cent this year - but with inflation currently at 5.2 per cent this means that values are already falling in real terms.
Now for 2012 and beyond.
Knight Frank is predicting that average house prices across the UK will fall by 5 per cent in 2012 and won’t start growing until 2014 - albeit with small rises of 1 per cent in 2014 and 2 per cent in 2015.
Some parts of the UK will fare worse than others. Average prices in Wales are expected to drop by 6.7 per cent next year, while both the North East and Scotland will see falls of 5.9 per cent.
London, South East, East Anglia and the East Midland are forecasted to do better than average UK values but will still see falls of between 3.7 per cent to 4.1 per cent.
FT
There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...
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Comments

  • RenovationMan
    RenovationMan Posts: 4,227 Forumite
    edited 26 October 2011 at 3:27PM
    Has anyone looked at the predictions on HPC board? They have a long list on there that shows predictions from various financial experts and institutions. Some of them are now historical and really show just how difficult it is to call a market.
  • Aberdeenangarse
    Aberdeenangarse Posts: 1,262 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    House prices, adjusted for CPI inflation, have fallen by 21% since the peak of the market and, according to KF forecasts, by 2015 they will have lost more than 29% of their value. On this measure, prices will not reach their previous highs until 2028.

    http://www.ukbusinessproperty.co.uk/?page=news&s=view&id=4939
  • Pimperne1
    Pimperne1 Posts: 2,177 Forumite
    Not too bad at predicting I suppose:

    http://www.primelocation.com/news/dont-expect-armageddon-says-knight-frank/

    2009 version
  • DervProf
    DervProf Posts: 4,035 Forumite
    So, it looks like it might be a while before we hear "house prices only go up" ringing in our ears again.

    I'm enjoying the peace and quiet, to be honest.
    30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.
  • Pimperne1
    Pimperne1 Posts: 2,177 Forumite
    DervProf wrote: »
    So, it looks like it might be a while before we hear "house prices only go up" ringing in our ears again.

    I'm enjoying the peace and quiet, to be honest.

    I doubt anyone actually said that who knew anything about the market. Now "House prices only go up in the long term" would be a different matter.
  • ruggedtoast
    ruggedtoast Posts: 9,819 Forumite
    All these predictions seem so pointless. The only consistency about them is that when prices are rising they predict rising prices, and when prices are falling they predict falling prices.
  • RenovationMan
    RenovationMan Posts: 4,227 Forumite
    Pimperne1 wrote: »
    I doubt anyone actually said that who knew anything about the market. Now "House prices only go up in the long term" would be a different matter.

    Don't ruin DervProf's 'peace and quiet'. His ears ring if you mention rising house prices. Seemingly.
  • DervProf
    DervProf Posts: 4,035 Forumite
    Pimperne1 wrote: »
    Now "House prices only go up in the long term" would be a different matter.

    True, just depends on how you define "long term". There was a time, not too long ago, when I had a few conversations with clients and friends about the property market. A few did argue that house prices couldn't or wouldn't fall in the future. The worst thing that could happen would be a slowdown in the rise in prices.
    30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.
  • IveSeenTheLight
    IveSeenTheLight Posts: 13,322 Forumite
    DervProf wrote: »
    True, just depends on how you define "long term". There was a time, not too long ago, when I had a few conversations with clients and friends about the property market. A few did argue that house prices couldn't or wouldn't fall in the future. The worst thing that could happen would be a slowdown in the rise in prices.

    It's just my personal viewpoint, but with regards to property, I view: -

    Short Term = 2-3 year, possibly up to 5
    Medium Term = 5 - 15 years
    Long Term = 15 + years.

    Of course with the standard term of a mortgage being 25 years, it would be natural to view that timeframe as long term.
    :wall:
    What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
    Some men you just can't reach.
    :wall:
  • chucknorris
    chucknorris Posts: 10,795 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    DervProf wrote: »
    True, just depends on how you define "long term". There was a time, not too long ago, when I had a few conversations with clients and friends about the property market. A few did argue that house prices couldn't or wouldn't fall in the future. The worst thing that could happen would be a slowdown in the rise in prices.

    Given that the market is cyclical there will always be a point in time when prices will fall in the future (and likewise eventually recover)
    Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop
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