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Debate House Prices
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Ernst And Young Recommend Lower Interest Rates
Comments
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Graham_Devon wrote: »Because they have been banned from there, and look what many are doing here!
This is a better site for being able to air bullish views without the threat of being banned. I would say that, to me, there is no equal to HPC for the collection of data from the various sources. Here we have the best of both worlds - being able to freely comment and being able to draw data from HPC (although the moderation policy here might benefit from toughening up - ie two strikes and you are out
) 0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »Because they have been banned from there, and look what many are doing here!
What they have been banned for saying house prices need to drop 40%.0 -
Is our whole economy based on nothing more than buying and selling the same houses to each other?.
Don't be daft.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
What they have been banned for saying house prices need to drop 40%.
Again, how do you actually know?
Because that's what they have said while they chase each other around various forums, newspaper comments articles etc trying desperately to say anything which will cause other people to get creative with their comments?
Even a guardian journalist once commented on one of sibley's comments suggesting he grows up and stops trying to get attention after deleting the comment.
These are the people you appear to believe every word of, and knock others based on. Up to you. But your own research may help.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »Again, how do you actually know?
Because that's what they have said while they chase each other around various forums, newspaper comments articles etc trying desperately to say anything which will cause other people to get creative with their comments?
Even a guardian journalist once commented on one of sibley's comments suggesting he grows up and stops trying to get attention after deleting the comment.
These are the people you appear to believe every word of, and knock others based on. Up to you. But your own research may help.
I don’t believe all that I read if you take Sibley seriously well that’s your problem.0 -
ultrawomble wrote: »Are there many first time buyers going straight in at +£250K?
Yes. Esp in London and the Home Counties...much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Obvious really... There will be no sustainable wider economic recovery until house prices are back in steady growth.
House Prices need to return to their long term average of 3.5 times salary. Then they become affordable to first time buyers again, and the problem is solved.0 -
sennypijama wrote: »House Prices need to return to their long term average of 3.5 times salary. Then they become affordable to first time buyers again, and the problem is solved.
1. The long term average is not 3.5 times salary. The long term average is 4 times male (mean) full time salary.
2. The current average house price is 4.4 times male (mean) full time salary, so at most 10% above historical norms. And given the extreme supply shortage and rise of dual income households over the last 40 years, today's levels are likely as cheap as it'll get for the next few decades.
4. The long term average includes the three decades of the freakishly highest rates in the BOE's 350 year + history. As there has been a structural shift towards more normal mortgage rates of around 5%, then 15% rates (when 3.5 times income made sense) are unlikely to be seen again in our lifetime.
5. The percentage of income a new buyer pays today towards a mortgage, even a mortgage at 5% rather than the 3.5% average, is far less than it was when houses were cheaper but rates were higher, and is well below the long term average.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »1. The long term average is not 3.5 times salary. The long term average is 4 times male (mean) full time salary.
2. The current average house price is 4.4 times male (mean) full time salary, so at most 10% above historical norms. And given the extreme supply shortage and rise of dual income households over the last 40 years, today's levels are likely as cheap as it'll get for the next few decades.
4. The long term average includes the three decades of the freakishly highest rates in the BOE's 350 year + history. As there has been a structural shift towards more normal mortgage rates of around 5%, then 15% rates (when 3.5 times income made sense) are unlikely to be seen again in our lifetime.
5. The percentage of income a new buyer pays today towards a mortgage, even a mortgage at 5% rather than the 3.5% average, is far less than it was when houses were cheaper but rates were higher, and is well below the long term average.
No, no, no, no no.
Your point 1 - a multiple of 4 is not a "long term" average. It's the post 1980 average.
Second half of your point 2 - pure speculation/ramping.
Your point 3 - actually one of your better efforts.
Your point 4 - see 1.
Your point 5 - it's true that low rates matter but please don't chuck around this "long term average" rubbish.FACT.0
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