The 'Crack up Boom' approaches.

Linton

Generali wrote: »

I agree that this time it's different but it's also differently different.

Rich people (income of say $15k+ a year) are likely to start living a lot longer and so will have to work a lot later in life. I would be surprised if my kids die before the age of 100 unless they smoke or drink to excess or die in an accident.

The Digital Revolution means that exponential growth is possible for a lot longer as consumption no longer necessarily means consuming anything much physical.

I bought an app at the weekend. It cost me about 60 seconds of work to finance and perhaps 2-3 coulombs of charge to transmit to me. 25 years ago a similar quality computer game would have taken me an hour of work to finance and goodness knows how much in energy to produce a physical copy.

Err yes but 25 years ago you wouldnt and couldnt have bought a similar quality computer game. The game you have bought and much else of the digital revolution is additional, not a replacement.

The resource problems are more basic - more people and the increasing expectations of billions of people in the developing world.

Generali

Linton wrote: »

Err yes but 25 years ago you wouldnt and couldnt have bought a similar quality computer game. The game you have bought and much else of the digital revolution is additional, not a replacement.

The resource problems are more basic - more people and the increasing expectations of billions of people in the developing world.

Maybe. What isn't there can't be consumed which implies that relative consumptions will change. What is vital (eg housing, food, water to drink and irrigate) will continue to be consumed. That which is consumed for leisure will possibly change to things like computer games that need fewer resources.

Bullfighter

Generali wrote: »

I agree that this time it's different but it's also differently different.

Rich people (income of say $15k+ a year) are likely to start living a lot longer and so will have to work a lot later in life. I would be surprised if my kids die before the age of 100 unless they smoke or drink to excess or die in an accident.

The Digital Revolution means that exponential growth is possible for a lot longer as consumption no longer necessarily means consuming anything much physical.

I bought an app at the weekend. It cost me about 60 seconds of work to finance and perhaps 2-3 coulombs of charge to transmit to me. 25 years ago a similar quality computer game would have taken me an hour of work to finance and goodness knows how much in energy to produce a physical copy.

Interesting anecdotal, however I respectfully think you are missing the point. Whilst there is a new market for digital distribution, it is the essentials which are truly limited: water, food, land, energy etc.

We will see the 7th billion person born this month. Currently several billion people exist on this planet with limited access to water, food, land, energy. If we just bring the next billion out of poverty and instead of all the trappings of the West we just gave them a 60w light bulb each. For them to turn that lightbulb on, for just four hours a day, we would require 10,000 megawatts or an ADDITIONAL twenty or so 500-megawatt coal-burning power plants... just so they can turn a light bulb on.

To have growth in Apps, or Kindle books we would require billions of tonnes of materials and hundreds of thousands of extra megawatts...

It ain't gonna happen.

FTBFun

I thought this thread was about drug trafficking at first....

purch

Hardly. That article is 2.5 years old. Nice try at scaremongering though.

No.

It's older than that.

It's an article from 2009, that is a complete cut and paste copy of another article from June 2007 :eek:

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/crack-up-boom/2007/06/26/

Yet another pathetic case of Internet Plagiarism.

purch

Fundamentally the economic system is diverging from the theoretical models of both Keynes and Mises

Couldn't agree more.

It would be interesting to hear what Von Mises would say about the current economic situation, bearing in mind the current situation we face.

I am certain he would have the flexibility and intellectual ability to alter some of his theory's to meet the current situation, something which unfortunately those who like to quote his 100 year old statements appear unable to do.

Realmoney_2

smeagold wrote: »

I'd be surprised Hamish of you even know what it is. It's being proved right, right now, right infront of your eyes but you can't see it. Just like when you called the gold crash, the 'end of the bubble' back in Jan when gold was at $1300. You said it would crash. I said that was the bottom. What happened? gold went up $600 in 8 months.You don't understand the dynamics and thats why you get it wrong. You don't know what austrian economics is so how can you call something wrong that you don't understand?

BTW Now would be a good time to buy too, gold will go up another $600 in the next 6 months. You gonna call the end of the bubble again and make it 2 out of 2? The lows in gold are in the $1500s no lower. We may retest but within a month gold will sky rocket again. $2200 within 6 months.

It's more than 2 out of 2, Hamish has been calling a crash in gold and silver all the way up from half today's prices.

In the next dip in this secular bull market Hamish will be on here again starting threads with childish names like Tee Hee gold and silver are going down see! 100% guaranteed he will be the same when they are at much higher prices.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Realmoney wrote: »

Hamish has been calling a crash in silver

Tee hee.

Down 40% from peak so far. A crash in anybody's books.



Look familiar?



So somewhere between fear and capitulation then.

No wonder your sockpuppets have been so frantic lately.

Jimmy_31

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Tee hee.

Down 40% from peak so far. A crash in anybody's books.



Look familiar?



So somewhere between fear and capitulation then.

No wonder your sockpuppets have been so frantic lately.

So finally you agree that house prices have crashed, once 100k houses round here are not selling for 60k.

40%:)

Realmoney_2

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

So finally you agree that house prices have crashed, once 100k houses round here are not selling for 60k.

40%:)

Still houses not reached bottom yet, they will not stop falling for a while yet.

That chart does indeed apply to silver :eek: You have to look at the big picture, that little graph is only a few yrs, you have to look longer term.


We are now in the first sell off and the first bear trap, the big gains have not yet happened but we are on our way