Is NI economy going broke?

jdmchugh

A SOLICITOR took me to the SCC for non payment of a bill for legal services. His bill/claim was devoid of detail. The Guide to the SCC states that if Claims have information missing they will be returned to the Applicant. Not alone was this claim not returned but it was allowed to continue into the system . A judge eventually ruled that I should have paid the bill. I complained but was told that I could not query the matter as it had been in front of a judge. But I protested it should not have got to the judge. Very Catch 22. Any Views please.

A.L.D.A

steveymp wrote: »

China may have increased, but can still make everything cheaper. IT may have peaked but R&D and Tourism have a long way to go IMHO.

I'm amazed we haven't made more of Northern Ireland being the World center for Golfing Excellence 3 major winners in 2 years coming from a small dot at the eastern edge of the Atlantic, why our golf clubs and hotels aren't packed with American and Asian golf fanatics is way beyond me

Good point, I agree. Marketing and investment in tourism here is too low. You could even sell the cloudy weather, it and the green fields is a novelty if you live in a desert country with lots of oil.

x12yhp wrote: »

I don't know I agree with your logic. Investors do not want to see falls! Unless we are talking about 'green' investors, an investor will have investments! A fall means a fall in value and a loss. Even for someone fresh into it, falling prices mean that their investment will be worth less tomorrow than it is today!

I am referring to people who have no intention of selling now or in the near future, but who wish to increase their portfolio. People with money invested in long term rental return rather than short term gambling on property value.

Say I bought a 3 bedroomed terrace house in Carrick for £35,000 (or less) the potential return on rental looks sound unless you believe that that house will be worth less than £30,000 next year? Even if it does in the following year is it going to be £25,000? The only way I can see that happening is a total economic collapse, which is a possibility, but then nothing would be safe.

From about 2003 - 2004 houses like this were being sold for daft amounts and people simply would not listen as greed had kicked in. Banks were throwing money into the fire. I was a bear back then, few wanted to hear.

Now, at the low end, large falls are increasingly unlikely. Who cannot afford a mortgage on a house costing £35,000? There are quite a few houses now below £50,000.

From an architectural point of view I would be delighted if they sold for £1000 and development sites for the same. It would mean that people then had money to extend, modernise, invest or whatever. From a selfish point of view the last thing I want is money tied up servicing loans.

Mistral001

A.L.D.A wrote: »

I am referring to people who have no intention of selling now or in the near future, but who wish to increase their portfolio. People with money invested in long term rental return rather than short term gambling on property value.
.

Are there any investors in NI wanting to invest long term in rental accommodation? It is not in our DNA. You get it in other countries like Germany, where the landlords are often large companies with very long track records going back decades, but it will not happen here in the near future.

A.L.D.A

Mistral001 wrote: »

Are there any investors in NI wanting to invest long term in rental accommodation? It is not in our DNA. You get it in other countries like Germany, where the landlords are often large companies with very long track records going back decades, but it will not happen here in the near future.

I have clients who are currently buying to rent and even thinking of building to rent. Do not know how typical that behaviour is, but I certainly know many people who have held onto property for decades. It is common enough as far as I can see.

joefizz

steveymp wrote: »

A Bus Stop, Car Park and Main Road ? don't see how this helps

I have connections with Golf Clubs and my Wife works in the hospitality industry, neither have been very pleased at the lack of "Visit NI" advertising at present and what little is taking place makes absolutely no Golf references

So I'm not talking out my bottom:o

You've not been to any of the airports recently (including Dublin - wall to wall NI adverts including golf) or seen the huge promote NI golf billboards and ads in other countries then?

Oh and its chucking it down here - part of the reason why US golfers go to Florida and Asian golfers go elsewhere.
Coupled with the fact they are in recession as well, it doesnt really help with travel costs etc.

I would say golfers are very well catered for in the tourism aspect - within minutes of all winners (and even when McIlroy choked) photos of NI golf courses were being requested worldwide.
Personally speaking I think they are overly catered for, with things like fishing which has more participants, no coverage, little promotion and can be done in the rain and in the dark!

saverbuyer

A.L.D.A wrote: »

Good point, I agree. Marketing and investment in tourism here is too low. You could even sell the cloudy weather, it and the green fields is a novelty if you live in a desert country with lots of oil.



I am referring to people who have no intention of selling now or in the near future, but who wish to increase their portfolio. People with money invested in long term rental return rather than short term gambling on property value.

Say I bought a 3 bedroomed terrace house in Carrick for £35,000 (or less) the potential return on rental looks sound unless you believe that that house will be worth less than £30,000 next year? Even if it does in the following year is it going to be £25,000? The only way I can see that happening is a total economic collapse, which is a possibility, but then nothing would be safe.

From about 2003 - 2004 houses like this were being sold for daft amounts and people simply would not listen as greed had kicked in. Banks were throwing money into the fire. I was a bear back then, few wanted to hear.

Now, at the low end, large falls are increasingly unlikely. Who cannot afford a mortgage on a house costing £35,000? There are quite a few houses now below £50,000.

From an architectural point of view I would be delighted if they sold for £1000 and development sites for the same. It would mean that people then had money to extend, modernise, invest or whatever. From a selfish point of view the last thing I want is money tied up servicing loans.

This is stupid and again I would call these people speculators rather than investors. They are clearly looking for capital gain and their “investment” hinges on continued support of their yield through housing benefit. If Housing benefit was reduced or didn’t rise with inflation long term there investment becomes unsound long term. They would have been better putting that 35K in a fixed account for 5 years at 5%. It is reckless to think the government will support this through a fixed level of housing benefit in the face of massive public sector debt.
Seriously I don’t know who advises your client on financial matters but I’d be looking to take them aside and give a short lesson on rental yield. 5% no risk or 9% (minus costs, voids etc) dependant on the government carrying on supporting you in the face of austerity.
Not to mention the tax situation could end at anytime as the government looks to raise revenue.
These are clearly speculators not investors.

saverbuyer

A.L.D.A wrote: »

I have clients who are currently buying to rent and even thinking of building to rent. Do not know how typical that behaviour is, but I certainly know many people who have held onto property for decades. It is common enough as far as I can see.

Building to rent. My god. Why would they thrown money away. What sort of yield are they getting there. Oh wait... It capital application again isn't it... The past 10 year has taught some people nothing. Houses don’t just go up in value. Still today’s “investors” are tomorrow’s bankrupts.

A.L.D.A

saverbuyer wrote: »

Building to rent. My god. Why would they thrown money away. What sort of yield are they getting there. Oh wait... It capital application again isn't it... The past 10 year has taught some people nothing. Houses don’t just go up in value. Still today’s “investors” are tomorrow’s bankrupts.

One is building houses to rent. (very cheap problem site with a solution others did not see). We reckon nothing to be gained by delay as building costs are only going one way. Rental return does appear to stack up. Another bought 16 derelicts, again cheap buy, but a lot of work fixing. Neither of these clients are new to this, they have been at it for decades and I think they know what they are doing.

They are not alone, another bought a site at 5% of its alleged value (utter nonsense value!) Going to build small commercial units and eventually some residential. I hope it goes well for them. At my end it is starting to move again, but I don't know if I am just fortunate. The above are moving because the lands costs were low hence my comment about cheap sites being in my interests previously. It is essential to get the land, or property CHEAP!

It is people like these and those in business, who are deciding to invest that will help pull us out of recession. They are taking some risk, but if they get it right they will make money and good luck to them. At least they are in there trying to come up with viable solutions and they are making a commitment.

saverbuyer

A.L.D.A wrote: »

One is building houses to rent. (very cheap problem site with a solution others did not see). We reckon nothing to be gained by delay as building costs are only going one way. Rental return does appear to stack up. Another bought 16 derelicts, again cheap buy, but a lot of work fixing. Neither of these clients are new to this, they have been at it for decades and I think they know what they are doing.

They are not alone, another bought a site at 5% of its alleged value (utter nonsense value!) Going to build small commercial units and eventually some residential. I hope it goes well for them. At my end it is starting to move again, but I don't know if I am just fortunate. The above are moving because the lands costs were low hence my comment about cheap sites being in my interests previously. It is essential to get the land, or property CHEAP!

It is people like these and those in business, who are deciding to invest that will help pull us out of recession. They are taking some risk, but if they get it right they will make money and good luck to them. At least they are in there trying to come up with viable solutions and they are making a commitment.

No it is essential to both these examples that the government carries on paying HB at current levels.

Commercial units? In this recession?

It's not people like these who will bring us out of recession. Building and construction does not bring us out of recession. Export based economy brings us out. If anything it is the opposite the reckless gambles like the ones above got us where we are today. My only hope is the people above are using their own money and not the money from the banks I own. I can't imagine any banks lending on this.

It seems your clients mantra is typical. Property only goes up in value. The old school ones think they.ve seen it all before. It's only a blip... I despair...

A.L.D.A

saverbuyer wrote: »

No it is essential to both these examples that the government carries on paying HB at current levels.

Jumping to conclusions again.

saverbuyer wrote: »

Commercial units? In this recession?

Yes, why not if you think there is demand or a gap in the market?

saverbuyer wrote: »

It's not people like these who will bring us out of recession. Building and construction does not bring us out of recession. Export based economy brings us out. If anything it is the opposite the reckless gambles like the ones above got us where we are today. My only hope is the people above are using their own money and not the money from the banks I own. I can't imagine any banks lending on this.

It seems your clients mantra is typical. Property only goes up in value. The old school ones think they.ve seen it all before. It's only a blip... I despair...

I fervently agree we need exports, but that does not mean that all other sectors sit on their backsides and hope for salvation. There is a lot the construction sector could do to improve our overall efficiency and many firms related to construction do provide income from abroad.

Where have I said property Always goes up? That is as stupid a position as a belief that property will always fall in value. Both positions are nonsense. What I actually said was quite different. It is essential to purchase CHEAP!!!!!!!! The reason for that was not to build in a potential future bonus if prices do rise, but instead to keep costs down so that rental returns make sense ON THEIR OWN. Appreciation is a bonus if it happens.