Latest RICS report (September 2011)

Mallotum_X

House prices decline at same pace as August

Price expectations remain negative

Activity remains broadly flat

The headline net price balance remained unchanged at -23 i.e. 23% more

surveyors recorded prices falling rather than rising over the last three

months. That said, three quarters of the respondents that did report a fall in
prices did so in the 0-2% range.
On the demand side, new buyer enquiries edged up in September, with the
net balance rising from -2 to +3. Meanwhile, new vendor instructions
declined on the month, with the net balance falling from -1 to -5.
Turning to volumes, newly agreed sales fell slightly, with the net balance
decreasing from +2 to -4, the first negative reading since January. The
average number of sales per surveyor (branch) increased by 3.3% to 14.5
(well below the long run average of 26.2). Meanwhile, the average amount
of stock on surveyors books increased by 3% to 68.9. Due to stocks and
sales increasing, the sales to stock ratio (a good indicator of market slack)

remained broadly unchanged at 21.1%.

http://www.rics.org/site/download_feed.aspx?fileID=10592&fileExtension=PDF

Dont think we have had this posted yet. Not a lot going on really, continued gently falling prices, with no expected rise in prices. Activity pretty much flat too.

Blacklight

Demand up, supply down.

geneer

Blacklight wrote: »

Demand up, supply down.

Prices falling.

Is almost as if there were factors other than supply and demand which effected the bubble.

MrRee_2

It's really just steady ... certainly where I am looking to buy.

Nothing has changed for 18 months in reality.

I don't quite understand the market - you would have thought that big falls would have happened by now, but it just isn't happening.

Sellers don't 'have' to sell and are being solid in their asking prices.

Only the three 'D's are seeing bargains - that's Death, Divorce and Debt. There are families breaking up and have to sell, although these are renting their property in a lot of cases. Deaths happen, so plenty of Bungalows coming to the market, but then plenty of baby boomers able to buy these for their final years. Debt, well, yes, this is there but not many Repo's about like there were in 1992!

So, prices hold steady ... just losing the cost of inflation each year.

geneer

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/10/10/uk-britain-houseprices-idUKTRE79961P20111010

House prices keep falling in September - RICS

DervProf

geneer wrote: »

Prices falling.

Is almost as if there were factors other than supply and demand which effected the bubble.

Don't be silly, it's all down to supply and demand.

Hamish said so.

Pimperne1

geneer wrote: »

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/10/10/uk-britain-houseprices-idUKTRE79961P20111010

I think you must have been hoping for bigger falls though.

Linton

geneer wrote: »

Prices falling.

Is almost as if there were factors other than supply and demand which effected the bubble.

Or a misunderstanding of what the numbers mean (if they mean anything as the % involved must be well within random error).

There is the little matter of timing - prices now come from vendors and sellers who registered several months ago. The current registrations will be reflected in prices in a few months time.

Then there is the question of whether the average size of house being traded is constant - smaller houses mean lower prices. Do you know?

Rinoa

Historically, a RICs balance of -20/25% is consistent with stable prices.

Don't know why that should be, maybe only those who aren't selling have the available time to complete the survey.

ruggedtoast

A lot of the unemployment is being suffered by the young so there arent too many forced sellers, but nor are the FTBs coming through. Demand is still high relative to supply.

nollag2006

Round my way, what is holding prices back from inflating the same way that everything else is is pure and simply the lack of mortgages.

Hopefully this round of QE will have the same effect as the early 2009 one did on the property market then.