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Debate House Prices
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How Moneyweek Nailed It.
geneer
Posts: 4,220 Forumite
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/when-will-house-prices-finally-crash
Heres a rather interesting prediction. From 2006.
But wait. "Last year I claimed".
So. Lets get this straight.
In 2005 Money week predicted that house prices would crash in 2008. Uncanny.
Pretty much a par with someone who in 2005 predicted that house prices would crash in 2007.
Hence the embittered bull animosity and obsession directed at money week.
They really really really don't appear to like those who did infinitely better in predictions than they managed.
Heres a rather interesting prediction. From 2006.
As to when the crash will come, he is more vague, suggesting it could be two years away, and describing attempts at calling the top of the market as pretty “hopeless”. I disagree. Look at the right data and a clear cyclical property pattern emerges. It suggests that by this time next year, the housing market could already have peaked. Let me explain.
UK property is very close to peaking
Last year, I claimed in Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010 that Britain was entering the final two years of the property cycle, and I still believe that’s the case.
But wait. "Last year I claimed".
So. Lets get this straight.
In 2005 Money week predicted that house prices would crash in 2008. Uncanny.
Pretty much a par with someone who in 2005 predicted that house prices would crash in 2007.
Hence the embittered bull animosity and obsession directed at money week.
They really really really don't appear to like those who did infinitely better in predictions than they managed.
0
Comments
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Not a bad prediction at all in that particular article.0
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Strange that the "financially savvy" editor of Moneyweek, Merryn Somerset Webb bought back into the property market in May 2010.
So long as it sells copies of the comic that is Moneyweek, I suppose it's a case of "Do as I say, not as I do"0 -
Doh
first line“A sharp fall in real house prices is likely at some point in the relatively near future.” So said David Miles, Morgan Stanley’s UK chief economist, earlier this week.
Is he money week, also in real house prices? that would hint not that much in nominal falls. Sounds similar to the soft landing theory to me?
They did nominally, shame so many got greedy as they thought they could get a lower nominal figure.. I believe prices could fall by as much as 20% in real terms
Some purchased at the bottom of the wave;) many are still waiting and realising the waves are now more like ripples.0 -
In 2005 Money week predicted.
Even a stopped clock is right twice a day geneer.
If you predict crashing prices every year for long enough, you're bound to get it right one day.
Moneyweek has been predicting housing Armageddon every year since 2004. Capital Economics every year since 2001. Jonathan Davis every year except one since 2002. HPC every day since 2003.
If you're going to publish dozens of articles over the course of many years, with different timelines and causes for falling house prices, even you could get it right one day.:)“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Prices crashed, I cashed in, got 30% off, (even Hamish said I wouldnt). What you waiting for? Plenty of cheap hooses out there.0
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Moneyweek ?
I love it.US housing: it's not a bubble - Moneyweek Dec 12, 20050 -
Kennyboy66 wrote: »Moneyweek ?
I love it.
Nice footer of yours Kenny
Now what was it [STRIKE]Seneer [/STRIKE] Geneer wrote?But wait. "Last year I claimed".
So. Lets get this straight.
In 2005 Money week predicted that house prices would crash in 2008. Uncanny.
Pretty much a par with someone who in 2005 predicted that house prices would crash in 2007.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/when-will-house-prices-finally-crash
Heres a rather interesting prediction. From 2006.
This from the article:
If you are saying his predictions are correct, then we are about to embark on 14 years of stable or rising prices. :THistorically, the cycle involves 14 years of stable or rising property prices followed by four years of recession – and so far, this is precisely what has happened this time around. After the last crash, house prices began to stabilise around 1993, which suggests 2007 will be the final growth year for this cycle, with a crash beginning in 2008, leading to a recession that reaches its bottom in 2010 – 18 years after the last slump.If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
This from the article:
If you are saying his predictions are correct, then we are about to embark on 14 years of stable or rising prices. :T
Not often that Geneer brings us some cheery news 'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
There ya go, somehere to put your noggins... pretend everything is rosy...0
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