London property bubble 'about to burst'

Bigdeflationfirst

The London property market has proved popular. Knight Frank estimates that €290m from Greece alone was invested in London last year alone – it’s a key reason why London’s property market has remained so resilient in recent years. But until 6 September, the most popular destination was a Swiss bank account. That all changed when the Swiss National Bank got sick of the surging Swiss franc and moved to kill its ‘safe haven’ status – pledging to buy “unlimited quantities” of foreign currencies to weaken the franc. The big question for investors is: which ‘safe havens’ will take Switzerland’s place? Gold and silver?

The-Joker

The correct definition of a bull is they think prices will rise, the definition of a bear is they think prices will fall.

Are there any house price bulls left, most of the previous house price rampers are now saying yes prices will fall now.

Many now say house prices will be about the same at the end of this decade as they are now, this is bearish is it not?

Flight2quality

The-Joker wrote: »

The correct definition of a bull is they think prices will rise, the definition of a bear is they think prices will fall.

Are there any house price bulls left, most of the previous house price rampers are now saying yes prices will fall now.

Many now say house prices will be about the same at the end of this decade as they are now, this is bearish is it not?

The thing is there are not many property bulls left, even the perma bulls like Hamish and his sockies have now changed sides and admit we are in a bear market for property going forward next few years.

Darthvader

drc wrote: »

I think that there will probably be quite a bit of movement with lots of the people who currently rent in the suburbs with no help, slowly moving into more central areas and lots of those currently heavily reliant on LHA moving from more Central areas into the suburbs, so a population exchange of sorts. The rental market will find a natural equilibrium after a few months but obviously people will only need to move when their LHA is next up for review which will happen from Jan 2012 onwards.

The £480 total cap means only around half that will be left for rent and council tax.

Anyone who gets more than £240 wk rent and council tax benefit will need to move somewhere cheaper.

This will leave more supply and less demand in London as thousands of families are forced to move away.

Mr._Pricklepants

Thanks for digging this thread up, Darthvader :T

5 months ago : London property bubble 'about to burst'


Meantime in the real world, February 2012 :

London House Prices Surge to Near Record High

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-20/london-house-prices-surge-to-near-record-as-supply-shortage-helps-sellers.html

:T

AndyGuil

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

Thanks for digging this thread up, Darthvader :T

5 months ago : London property bubble 'about to burst'


Meantime in the real world, February 2012 :





http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-20/london-house-prices-surge-to-near-record-as-supply-shortage-helps-sellers.html

:T

Yes, the very high value houses in London are doing well. A lot of cash only buys (80%). The lower end of the London market, not so good unfortunately.

drc

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

Thanks for digging this thread up, Darthvader :T

5 months ago : London property bubble 'about to burst'


Meantime in the real world, February 2012 :





http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-20/london-house-prices-surge-to-near-record-as-supply-shortage-helps-sellers.html

:T

The article is referring to asking prices.

Mr._Pricklepants

drc wrote: »

The article is referring to asking prices.

Yes indeed.

And Nationwide index for London Q4/11 was +2.6 QoQ and +5.4 YoY

Darthvader

AndyGuil wrote: »

Yes, the very high value houses in London are doing well. A lot of cash only buys (80%). The lower end of the London market, not so good unfortunately.

This thread is London about to burst, yes it still has not yuet.

But when ther £480 cap comes in, a lot of properties who do not lower their rents in line with the cap will be empty until they do lower.

This will burst the bubble.

UrWntr

AndyGuil wrote: »

Yes, the very high value houses in London are doing well. A lot of cash only buys (80%). The lower end of the London market, not so good unfortunately.

Very interesting, please could you shares your sources for:

a) 80% of the purchases in London are cash buys

and

b) The high value houses in London are skewing the data