London property bubble 'about to burst'

globalds

We still have the Olympics.


That should keep London safe for another year.

Wookster

Flight2quality wrote: »

I love London too. But you are right about people paying quarter of a million for a bog standard house just because its near a tube station. Talk about overvalued.

£250k? What areas are you thinking of? Where I am, a 3 bedroom house is £500,000 and then some!

rizla01

Dunno about ALL foreign investment disappearing.

One Hyde Park is still commanding high prices and whilst not the norm or average, it will surely encourage other such developments.

6.5 Milllion for a one bed apartment? - Up to 14Million for a 4bed penthouse doesn't sound like there is much of a problem in the City.

EA's always talk values down to encourage owners to take less for quicker sales.

Typical dishonest EA strategy!

zagubov

Flight2quality wrote: »

I love London too. But you are right about people paying quarter of a million for a bog standard house just because its near a tube station. Talk about overvalued.

Remember for a time the Emperor was happy and no one said anything, even a child can see that London house prices are overvalued and all it takes is for everyone else to cotton on.

I know what you mean but large cities above a certain size are to some extent self-sustaining. If people need jobs there's usually more in areas where there are potentially loads of customers for businesses to sell to.

Single- industry cities are always potentially at risk (e.g Detroit) but cities relying on commerce and business have a good chance of keeping going.

As the overblown house prices are a form of inflation (not that anyone seems to admit it) that make London an unaffordable place for peoplke doing essential jobs in e.g health, education, emergency jobs etc.

Do Londoners envy those in other big cities who live better at lower cost - yep, loads of them do, they're not daft. They either have to stay as they don't think they'll find work elsewhere or they have family commitments.

Thermidor

zagubov wrote: »

I know what you mean but large cities above a certain size are to some extent self-sustaining. If people need jobs there's usually more in areas where there are potentially loads of customers for businesses to sell to.

Single- industry cities are always potentially at risk (e.g Detroit) but cities relying on commerce and business have a good chance of keeping going.

As the overblown house prices are a form of inflation (not that anyone seems to admit it) that make London an unaffordable place for peoplke doing essential jobs in e.g health, education, emergency jobs etc.

Do Londoners envy those in other big cities who live better at lower cost - yep, loads of them do, they're not daft. They either have to stay as they don't think they'll find work elsewhere or they have family commitments.

Hmmmm.....there's not as many work opportunities outside of London, and what there is the pay is much lower. Up north there's more people unemployed - ghost towns in fact - where they have no chance of getting a job anywhere. So there's no envy as far as Londoners are concerned. Londoners have a far better standard in living when you round it all up, including all the advantages of what London has to offer. It's one of the best cities in the world - and THAT'S why people want live in London.

worldtraveller

rizla01 wrote: »

Dunno about ALL foreign investment disappearing.

One Hyde Park is still commanding high prices and whilst not the norm or average, it will surely encourage other such developments.

6.5 Milllion for a one bed apartment? - Up to 14Million for a 4bed penthouse doesn't sound like there is much of a problem in the City.

EA's always talk values down to encourage owners to take less for quicker sales.

Typical dishonest EA strategy!

I'm not so sure. I can still well remember the early 1990's when property developers pretty much couldn't give away the thousands of new London dockland warehouse properties that had been built during a boom period. They largely remained empty during the huge decline in the world economy at that time. The likes of Paul Reichmann couldn't even fill 50% of Canary Wharf and his company, Olympia & York, later collapsed. IMHO those times are not too far away again now. Boom & bust, boom & bust!

zagubov

Thermidor wrote: »

Hmmmm.....there's not as many work opportunities outside of London, and what there is the pay is much lower. Up north there's more people unemployed - ghost towns in fact - where they have no chance of getting a job anywhere. So there's no envy as far as Londoners are concerned. Londoners have a far better standard in living when you round it all up, including all the advantages of what London has to offer. It's one of the best cities in the world - and THAT'S why people want live in London.

For those on exceptional salaries maybe so, but for those on normal salaries the price hikes overwhelmingly outweigh the London salary weighting - but there's the worry that if they leave they'll never get back if they made a mistake and that's why people are stuck in London

rizla01

worldtraveller wrote: »

I'm not so sure. I can still well remember the early 1990's when property developers pretty much couldn't give away the thousands of new London dockland warehouse properties that had been built during a boom period. They largely remained empty during the huge decline in the world economy at that time. The likes of Paul Reichmann couldn't even fill 50% of Canary Wharf and his company, Olympia & York, later collapsed. IMHO those times are not too far away again now. Boom & bust, boom & bust!

I agree that Canary Wharf was a bit of a white elephant and was slow to sell but the later developments in London are of VERY high spec and are being invested in by the uber wealthy foreigners, (from China, Russia and Saudi) the like of which Canary Wharf never attracted in the main.

Sorry to deflate a large consensus here, but I wager that there is no BUST on the way and that we will muddle through this and property will rise again and again.

This country still has a shortage of affordable homes yet new builds are almost stagnant.

Existing properties MUST retain their saleability which will always keep prices stable.

EA's forecasts are the last that I would trust as they have a vested interest in convincing us all that there is a fall in values.

This is not borne out by other, more reliable, sources.

But, hey, if you prefer to believe your dreams, don't let me throw a spanner in.

drc

rizla01 wrote: »

I agree that Canary Wharf was a bit of a white elephant and was slow to sell but the later developments in London are of VERY high spec and are being invested in by the uber wealthy foreigners, (from China, Russia and Saudi) the like of which Canary Wharf never attracted in the main.

Sorry to deflate a large consensus here, but I wager that there is no BUST on the way and that we will muddle through this and property will rise again and again.

This country still has a shortage of affordable homes yet new builds are almost stagnant.

Existing properties MUST retain their saleability which will always keep prices stable.

EA's forecasts are the last that I would trust as they have a vested interest in convincing us all that there is a fall in values.

This is not borne out by other, more reliable, sources.

But, hey, if you prefer to believe your dreams, don't let me throw a spanner in.

But who can afford to pay these prices??? If prices keep rising and we see small bedsits in mediocre areas costing half a million, who in their right mind would buy it, let alone be able to afford to buy it? There is a lack of affordable housing and this is precisely because prices are too high and UNAFFORDABLE for the majority. There are a finite amount of Ecclestones, Abramoviches, bankers, dentists and doctors in London who are able to pay millions for a very basic property and there are more of these basic properties than there are well salaried and rich people. Something has to give.

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

You can't run and coordinate a trading floor from different rooms. The market moves too fast. Shouting across a room sometimes is the optimum method of communication.

you probably need to visit a trading floor to know how a trading floor works. you'll find out times have moved and they're not working like they did in 1982.