EXPRESS- House prices to SOAR 21%

bendix

Sibley wrote: »

I plan to sell mty investment place in 10 years time. I expect prices will be 30% higher than now. That will give me a nice retirement.

Even if prices dropped my rent will only ever increase.

It's win win for me. I worked hard and am now reaping the rewards.
The sooner people get on the ladder the sooner they can have a piece of the pie.

If a 30% price rise in 10 years is your definition of a good investment, you have very low expectations. That's a pathetic return after ten years . . barely 2.5% per annum.

In other words, it's below inflation forecasts for the same period so you will, in fact, be losing money.

Well done Sibley. Enjoy your retirement.

DervProf

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I don't know anyone that hasn't had a pay rise this year. I haven't, and a few of my friends haven't.

I don't know anyone that has stopped spending on the high street. I have been doing more internet shopping than ever, I very rarely visit the high street. I suppose you are technically correct, there can't be many people who never buy at least one item from a high street store once in a while.

I don't know anyone that is particularly worried about their job security. I think you'll find that people will often not tell you that they're worried about job security.

I do know a lot of people that want to buy houses though... And are only being stopped by mortgage rationing. When that eases, and it will, there will be the most almighty boom as pent up demand is unleashed on a market starved of sufficient buillding. Really ? When I read about the people you know, it seems like a very narrow section of society that you mix with.

I think if you knew a wider selection of folk, you'd find quite a mixed picture. I talk to a lot of people, and I am finding that some are doing well, others are doing OK, and some are struggling.

bendix

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I don't know anyone that hasn't had a pay rise this year.

I don't know anyone that has stopped spending on the high street.

I don't know anyone that is particularly worried about their job security.

I do know a lot of people that want to buy houses though... And are only being stopped by mortgage rationing. When that eases, and it will, there will be the most almighty boom as pent up demand is unleashed on a market starved of sufficient buillding.

Are you serious? You don't know people who are worried about job security? Have you not heard of this austerity package, which has barely started yet?

You must live in a cocoon.

As for 'almighty boom', even the Daily Express is forecasting a 21% rise in five years which is unlikely to match inflation even, so in other words prices will be down in real terms.

chucknorris

bendix wrote: »

If a 30% price rise in 10 years is your definition of a good investment, you have very low expectations. That's a pathetic return after ten years . . barely 2.5% per annum.

In other words, it's below inflation forecasts for the same period so you will, in fact, be losing money.

Well done Sibley. Enjoy your retirement.

If you bought a 300k property with a 20% mortgage, your total outlay would be approximately 80k (incl furniture if you intend to let it furnished). At disposal 30% on 300k is 90k, disposal costs would be about 10k, so the value would be reduced to 380k. Your return on capital invested is 100% not 30%.

Even so I intend to focus on commercial property from now on, I've had enough of residential, the returns have been excellent but I think commercial property will suit me better in the later years of my life.

IronWolf

That's great news, forecasts are always wrong, therefore this will definitely not happen.

Aberdeenangarse

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I don't know anyone that hasn't had a pay rise this year.

Only one in four have had a pay rise, apparently!

http://www.cipd.co.uk/pressoffice/_articles/employeeoutlok030811.htm

Le_Chuck

21% over 5 years, in other words house prices will rise in line with inflation. ie 0% in real terms

IronWolf

omg, the express is only 10p?

I think that says a lot for the calibre of people writing for it.

antrobus

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Source of the headline?

Economists. Or to be more precise, "according to research by Oxford Economics for the National Housing Federation".

This would be the same Oxford Economics that previously carried out research for the National Housing Federation and confidently predicted in August 2007 that the "average English house price will top £300,000 in five years".

I suppose there's still a year to go, and so they might have got that one right.

chucknorris

Le_Chuck wrote: »

21% over 5 years, in other words house prices will rise in line with inflation. ie 0% in real terms

Using the example in post 15 the gain would be over 66% on capital invested (rather than 21%), so well ahead of inflation.