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Debate House Prices
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The Myth of Risky Mortgage Lending
Comments
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MacMickster wrote: »Are you serious?
Well here is the most comprehensive list of predictions I can find:
http://housepricecrash.co.uk/
(scroll down for predictions table)
Most of them have already been proven hideously wrong and the others who predicted large falls by say, 2012, are well into their prediction period with prices having gone up in many cases.0 -
Well here is the most comprehensive list of predictions I can find:
http://housepricecrash.co.uk/
(scroll down for predictions table)
Most of them have already been proven hideously wrong and the others who predicted large falls by say, 2012, are well into their prediction period with prices having gone up in many cases.
I am not someone who believes that house prices are going to crash, but they are likely to fall in most areas of the country over the next 5 years.
Unfortunately, those falls are likely to be highest in those areas of the country which are most dependent upon public sector jobs, and hence likely to be worst hit by the planned public sector cuts.
Even more unfortunately, these are the very areas in which these surveys show borrowers to be most at risk."When the people fear the government there is tyranny, when the government fears the people there is liberty." - Thomas Jefferson0 -
MacMickster wrote: »I am not someone who believes that house prices are going to crash, but they are likely to fall in most areas of the country over the next 5 years.
Unfortunately, those falls are likely to be highest in those areas of the country which are most dependent upon public sector jobs, and hence likely to be worst hit by the planned public sector cuts.
Even more unfortunately, these are the very areas in which these surveys show borrowers to be most at risk.
Well you won't find me arguing that there aren't areas in the UK where house prices will fall but overall I think most people believe the majority of the country has seen the worst.
"Over the next 5 years" is a long time and during that time we are likely to have fairly restrained interest rates, government support for those in negeq and understanding lenders. Again, being in negeq doesn't mean you can't afford to pay your mortgage.0 -
"Over the next 5 years" is a long time and during that time we are likely to have fairly restrained interest rates, government support for those in negeq and understanding lenders. Again, being in negeq doesn't mean you can't afford to pay your mortgage.
I agree in part. Although "being in negeq doesn't mean you can't afford to pay your mortgage" is true, the areas of the UK most likely to be affected are those which are likely to see rising unemployment. High rates of both negative equity and unemployment is a particularly unpleasant double-edged sword."When the people fear the government there is tyranny, when the government fears the people there is liberty." - Thomas Jefferson0 -
MacMickster wrote: »I agree in part. Although "being in negeq doesn't mean you can't afford to pay your mortgage" is true, the areas of the UK most likely to be affected are those which are likely to see rising unemployment. High rates of both negative equity and unemployment is a particularly unpleasant double-edged sword.
Agreed Negeq and unemployment would be very unpleasant (as would being in rental accommodation and becoming unemployed but as I currently understand it the government are likely to be more helpful to home owners in these circumstances than landlords are to tenants).0 -
the_flying_pig wrote: »yup. it's taken the life support of year upon year of the loosest monetary policy imaginable to cap the % of post-2005 mortgages in NE to "only" 25%..
Nope.
Just 8.5% of mortgages in the north in NE, and 2.5% in the south.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
MacMickster wrote: »High rates of both negative equity and unemployment is a particularly unpleasant double-edged sword.
It sure is.
Which is why most rational people would like to see both the economy recovering and house prices rising.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »It sure is.
Which is why most rational people would like to see both the economy recovering and house prices rising.
Most "rational" people can see that house prices rising is not going to help the economy recover.0 -
Actually, it's 2011 now, and it was 2007 when Northern Rock went bust. Two-thirds of "since 2005" is post-credit-crunch.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »And only 25% of mortgages taken out since 2005, so towards the top of the market, have less than 10% equity."It will take, five, 10, 15 years to get back to where we need to be. But it's no longer the individual banks that are in the wrong, it's the banking industry as a whole." - Steven Cooper, head of personal and business banking at Barclays, talking to Martin Lewis0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »Most "rational" people can see that house prices rising is not going to help the economy recover.
On the contrary Graham, most rational people can see that house prices and the wider economy are very closely linked, both held back by the same things, and that a recovery in one will lead to a recovery in the other.
What we as a country need are things like rising employment, increasing consumer confidence, improvements in business investment, improvements in lending, GDP growth, etc. Which won't be happening if house prices are crashing.
Whether you think rising house prices are a cause or effect of an improving economy is immaterial.
It's undeniable that the two will rise and fall together.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0
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