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Fairly bullish on shares
hallmark
Posts: 1,480 Forumite
All IMO & may turn out to be utterly wrong so feel free to disagree..
I'm very bullish on shares, in the circa 5y timeframe. I can easily see the FTSE hitting 10K around then.
My reasoning is fairly noddy (but that's usually when I'm closest to the mark) & goes thus:
Investors have to invest in something. In general there is money sloshing around wanting to be invested & it has to go somewhere. So where?
Property? Still horribly overpriced & likely to stay that way for the foreseeable future.
Gold/Silver etc? At all-time highs.
Cash? Paying nothing & during an inflationary period too.
So I don't see much else other than shares for people to invest in.
More than that, the fundamentals of a lot of big companies look fine to me. Iffy Greek debt doesn't suddenly make Tesco's a crap company IMO. Maybe they sell a bit less humous & tarramasalata if there's a double-dip recession but other than that they're still fine.
And more than that, the FTSE has languished for a long while now - it was 1999 when it nearly hit 7,000. It just feels like it's bound to smash through that level at some point in the mid-timeframe.
In the short term i.e. the next year or so it could go anywhere but I think now is a great time to be dripping into shares & I aim to do just that. I think the next few years may well turn out to be a great buying opportunity a few years after that.
Of course there is bad news all over the place just now but that's been true of every great buying opportunity ever.
All just IMO as I said & my opinion is worth no more than anyone elses but I'm intending to put my money where my mouth is.
I'm very bullish on shares, in the circa 5y timeframe. I can easily see the FTSE hitting 10K around then.
My reasoning is fairly noddy (but that's usually when I'm closest to the mark) & goes thus:
Investors have to invest in something. In general there is money sloshing around wanting to be invested & it has to go somewhere. So where?
Property? Still horribly overpriced & likely to stay that way for the foreseeable future.
Gold/Silver etc? At all-time highs.
Cash? Paying nothing & during an inflationary period too.
So I don't see much else other than shares for people to invest in.
More than that, the fundamentals of a lot of big companies look fine to me. Iffy Greek debt doesn't suddenly make Tesco's a crap company IMO. Maybe they sell a bit less humous & tarramasalata if there's a double-dip recession but other than that they're still fine.
And more than that, the FTSE has languished for a long while now - it was 1999 when it nearly hit 7,000. It just feels like it's bound to smash through that level at some point in the mid-timeframe.
In the short term i.e. the next year or so it could go anywhere but I think now is a great time to be dripping into shares & I aim to do just that. I think the next few years may well turn out to be a great buying opportunity a few years after that.
Of course there is bad news all over the place just now but that's been true of every great buying opportunity ever.
All just IMO as I said & my opinion is worth no more than anyone elses but I'm intending to put my money where my mouth is.
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Comments
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Govt bonds?...much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0
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The whole appeal of Govt Bonds is their cast-iron safety though. Now that's gone I can't see any appeal..0
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The whole appeal of Govt Bonds is their cast-iron safety though. Now that's gone I can't see any appeal..
You're looking at the wrong sovereigns then.Living for tomorrow might mean that you survive the day after.
It is always different this time. The only thing that is the same is the outcome.
Portfolios are like personalities - one that is balanced is usually preferable.
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Ark_Welder wrote: »You're looking at the wrong sovereigns then.
Care to elaborate? Ambiguous one-liners don't add much to the debate.0 -
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Care to elaborate? Ambiguous one-liners don't add much to the debate.
Neither do generalisations.
Try German, US and UK bonds in addition to Swiss and Japanese.Living for tomorrow might mean that you survive the day after.
It is always different this time. The only thing that is the same is the outcome.
Portfolios are like personalities - one that is balanced is usually preferable.
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Ark_Welder wrote: »Neither do generalisations.
Try German, US and UK bonds in addition to Swiss and Japanese.
Hardly risk-free are they, I think you've made my point for me. US were one day away from defaulting this week & even if that was largely politicians playing games they were still dangerous games. Germany may have to bail out who knows how many Eurozone disasters, UK in horrible shape & only appears good when compared to basket-cases. Japan has truly eye-watering debt. If those are the BEST Govt bonds out there then there really aren't any attractive ones.0 -
Everying has a risk of one kind or another, some more than others. Check the movements in yields - especially of the US both before and after the events of this week. Yield movements are the indicator of perceived bond risk, not stock prices.Living for tomorrow might mean that you survive the day after.
It is always different this time. The only thing that is the same is the outcome.
Portfolios are like personalities - one that is balanced is usually preferable.
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Yes but the main appeal of Govt Bonds has always been the cast-iron guarantee. Now they're just A.N.Other risk-carrying investment except without much upside.
All IMO as I said in my OP but nothing about Govt Bonds changes my view on shares being a good investment currently.0 -
Hardly risk-free are they, I think you've made my point for me. US were one day away from defaulting this week
Then you need to understand the system for US Government borrowing. Which is totally different to that adopted in the UK.
However with Browns legacy. Perhaps the US's isn't that bad a mechanism. At least it creates real debate. Not a phoney war of denial.0
I haven't bogged off yet, and I ain't no babe
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