Apparently......

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I'm actually surprised so many of our posters didn't get it.

It's already been stated on threads before now.

And the answer was the same then as it is now.

Marvyn can not just state when he personally will be willing to raise rates. The world is in turmoil. Any other EU country could send shockwaves to us, which could change what Mervyn says drastically.

wotsthat

..and a BBC poll of economists predict that rates will not rise until next year

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14386958

...some are predicting rises though so there might be opportunities for trading up when, inevitably, house prices crash as everyone struggles with their mortgage. Oh, hang on, half predict at least 1.5% by the end of 2013 - that's not going to have quite the devastating effect that some hoped for.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Marvyn can not just state when he personally will be willing to raise rates. The world is in turmoil. Any other EU country could send shockwaves to us, which could change what Mervyn says drastically.

Of course he can't but can you think of a shockwave that is likely to lead to an increase in rates...

- Germany stops manufacturing and the UK takes over
- George Osbourne finds a trillion pounds he forgot about
- Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain turn out to be beacons of financial responsibility.

edinburgher

- Germany stops manufacturing and the UK takes over
- George Osbourne finds a trillion pounds he forgot about

That sounds lovely - visions of British high streets full of cheerful industrialists with bowler hats going briskly about their business and saying 'what ho' a lot

Generali

wotsthat wrote: »

Of course he can't but can you think of a shockwave that is likely to lead to an increase in rates...

- UK economic recovery
- Trade unions getting their act together and pushing up wages
- Bond market refusing to lend more to the UK at very low rates
- Big oil price rise (see 1970s for likely impact)

crash123

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

:eek:


The above were the stated conditions under which rises in base rates were seen as likely, by Mervyn King at the Treasury select committee just last month.

Now, let's see, whose opinion should I give more credence to.... The Governor of the Bank of England, or some Lunatic on a web forum?

Tough one.....:rotfl:

Mervyn King must take some of the blame for this mess. They kept interest rates too low for too long.

wotsthat

Generali wrote: »

- UK economic recovery
- Trade unions getting their act together and pushing up wages
- Bond market refusing to lend more to the UK at very low rates
- Big oil price rise (see 1970s for likely impact)

- I hope there's a UK economic recovery and think there's a better chance of growth here vs. USA or Europe.

- Trade Unions getting their act together. Never. Half of the problem we have now with public sector pensions is that unions were willing to accept a government promise rather than cash in hand. They then seem surprised that later governments want to change the terms of the promise.

- Bond markets refusing to lend at low rates. Maybe but part of me thinks that if they'll lend at low rates now they'll keep doing it.

- Big oil price rise. Who knows?

I'm with the BBC forecast on this one. 1.5%, if that, by the end of 2013. In the current climate 2014 becomes a long-term forecast but, shockwaves apart, we're years from seeing 5%.

Generali

wotsthat wrote: »

- I hope there's a UK economic recovery and think there's a better chance of growth here vs. USA or Europe.

- Trade Unions getting their act together. Never. Half of the problem we have now with public sector pensions is that unions were willing to accept a government promise rather than cash in hand. They then seem surprised that later governments want to change the terms of the promise.

- Bond markets refusing to lend at low rates. Maybe but part of me thinks that if they'll lend at low rates now they'll keep doing it.

- Big oil price rise. Who knows?

I'm with the BBC forecast on this one. 1.5%, if that, by the end of 2013. In the current climate 2014 becomes a long-term forecast but, shockwaves apart, we're years from seeing 5%.

TBH in order of likelihood I'd order them 1, 3, 4, 2.

Unfortunately shockwaves seem to be increasingly common in the world. Asia in the 1990s and US/Europe since 2000.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Crikey Graham, surprisingly it seems you do have more self-awareness than a house plant.

You're liking the "self awareness" quote thing aren't you Hamish.
You're a bit of a magpie really.
Grabbing up memes and comments in your little snapping beak, and tossing them back into the forum, as if they are your own.
I suspect you don't even realise your doing it.

Its no wonder you're logic is so counter-intuitive. You've been dining out on any VI soundbyte you've come across for years. Swallowing them up hook line and sinker.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

See if you can get some of it to rub off on geneer.

Have to say Hamish, given the multi year dedictated obsession with myself that chaps like you, and Rinoa, Pimperne1 and Heathcote have demonstrated, theres rather too much rubbing off on geneer going on.

Step away from the internet!

Zoran_Ilievski

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Falling Unemployment, Rising GDP, a Strengthening Economy and banks lowering their margins above base rates, will be conditions under which house prices will fall. :rotfl:

Worth thinking about that the next time someone is deluded enough to post that prices must inevitably fall when base rates rise.;)

Spot on. The little guys like Geneer are going to be left behind again. They waited for a BIG crash, got a little correction, decided it wasn't big enough for them and kept waiting, only to see the boat sail without them again. Oh well, I suppose he can wait for the 'next' crash and maybe this time prices in Edinburgh won't crash to a level higher than they were when he first started waiting for the BIG crash. :rotfl: