FTSE100 falling fast!

Graham_Devon

You should try being in the AIM market batchy!! I only have a couple of grand in there after selling up earlier, but wish I'd sold that up too. Thought I was on to something good buying XEL at under £2. But no, crisis after crisis means, if the current sentiment contnues, I'll be 50% down by tommorow evening.

Had a large resource upgrade and more findings from HER this morning. Bang, near on 10% down.

My feeling now is just leave it there for a year, it will either look better, or I'll lose the lot. Loosing 10-15% daily.

It's pure gambling now. But people are losing thousands, while people still ramp away. The denial on the III boards is simply mesmarising (sp) from some.

Jegersmart

wotsthat wrote: »

What surprises me is how 'forward looking' markets fail to forsee the obvious..

- Greece will NEVER repay it's debts. Neither will Portugal. Payday loans wouldn't touch the PIGS yet wheelbarrowloads of good money are following bad.
- A debt ceiling agreement was always going to be reached in the US. It was always going to be a cobbled together affair that didn't address either the problems of growth or Debt. The US 'will' pay it's debts but only after currency devaluation and inflation.
- China will NEVER be repaid the money it's owed.
- China's a crash waiting to happen.

well, markets look at what "may" happen, but at the end of the day it is a market that is driven by buyers and sellers. Over the last 12 months there have in general been a lot more buyers than sellers despite the "issues" at hand. The market is not some magical animal that tries to see the future, it is purely driven by buying and selling action.

Batchy

I know what a market is.

I know what risk is.

My observation was FTSE is Falling, and what is causing this... and does anyone have a feeling its going all the way down to 4500 and then some more AGAIN!

IronWolf

Id be very surprised it it went below 5000, never mind 4500.

But I would also be loving at as there are some big companies out there I want to get into but their prices are a bit too high atm

Jegersmart

Batchy wrote: »

I know what a market is.

I know what risk is.

My observation was FTSE is Falling, and what is causing this... and does anyone have a feeling its going all the way down to 4500 and then some more AGAIN!

Well no one can say anything for sure apart from the fact there are more sellers than buyers over the last few days. You can make up your own reasons why and pick from a plethora including US growth stall, euro debt-contagion or what about people selling before the big non-farm Payrolls figures out tomorrow?

Markets tend to overreact constantly due to herd mentality driven by fear/greed depending on the action.

From a tech analysis (or voodoo) perspective the FTSE has tosday printed a new low and has in those terms confirmed the ongoing downtrend is intact bearing in mind it has tested and failed to make new highs for several months now. Is this the bottom? No one can know for sure. My bet woud be that if the NFP figures are roughly inline with epxectations that we will have a bounce now - maybe 100-200 points but unless we takeout the recent high around 5967 I fear we are going to be drifting down in a 200-300 point range until price action takes out or is supported by price levels at either end of the spectrum. The majory of the resistance is at 5465-80 at the moment, below that we have a low from late August last year just under 5100. Obviously it is not at all certain it will sink that low but they are at least some levels to look at and trends to follow for clues.

imho, dyor.

J

wotsthat

Batchy wrote: »

I know what a market is.

I know what risk is.

My observation was FTSE is Falling, and what is causing this... and does anyone have a feeling its going all the way down to 4500 and then some more AGAIN!

Don't know but happy to hold TBH.

I'd suggest looking at your portfolio the way I look at my SIPP - place hands in front of face, peep through cracks in fingers, have a little cry, tell myself that future monthly purchases will be cheaper.

Graham_Devon

Batchy wrote: »

I know what a market is.

I know what risk is.

My observation was FTSE is Falling, and what is causing this... and does anyone have a feeling its going all the way down to 4500 and then some more AGAIN!

The only reason I have left my 2k (which isn't worth 2k at the moment) and not sold, is because I think it will take an actual default to start other countries defaulting.

Personally, I don't see that happening at the moment. Not due to the actual issues, but I do believe we are still in the mindset that further debt solves the problem of too much debt.

Some day it will happen, and I could be taken by surprise, often am, could be tommorow. But from experience, I think the Eurozone and the US will make things 10x worse for themselves before finally, they can't make things any worse and it topples. At that point markets will simply dive, probably worse than what we saw with the credit crisis.

As I say, this isn't my prediction, I'm just more confident that people will meddle and apply more QE, more bailouts and more debt. I don't think the mindset of "ok, this isn't going to actually work" has taken hold yet. It's all currently about more and more debt.

As I say, I therefore believe QE3 is a possibility, which is why I have gambled and left my AIM shares going. At a major loss on the 2k at the moment, but if QE3 produces what QE2 did, I'd hope to break even, or profit. Then run.

I'm fully aware I could lose the lot.

Jegersmart

One should seriously consider the possible ramifications of the outstanding CDS's when talking about default. The outstanding CDS market is several times in size in comparion to *global* GDP - it doesn't take a large portion of those to trigger to cause a massive event. I am not sure anyone would know what that would look like though. QE4 Maxi? - approx. 25-60 trillion USD needed....?

Ouch.

imho, dyor

smartn

Its painful watching the index slide but its a healthy correction imo. We climbed too high too fast and this was on the cards. Not sure how much further we have to fall but would be surprised if we drop below 5000 but what do I know!

Graham_Devon

Dunno !!!!!! is going on. But been watching GKP. Dragged down to 84p or something (30% down on the day)...loads of people got wiped out, then went straight back up to 110p.

Then happened to Rockhopper apparently (from what was said on the forums).

Now seems to be currently happening to XEL. Just dropped like a stone to under a pound. I', down 50% quicker than I thought. Just wondering if the same pattern is going to emerge, and a bounce back almost instantly as all stop losses are hoovered up.