GDP figures expected to show the UK economy has slowed

shortchanged_2

lisyloo wrote: »

Absolutely not and I don't see the connection at all.
Looks like Grant and Anthea actually did their financial planning quite well to me.

Sorry but that attitude just sucks. So there may be people who lost their house because Bovey shafted them over but it's fine for Bovey to continue living it up as the Lord of the Manor.

That is what is wrong with this system I'm afraid. When Bovey got married to Anthea Turner were their vows probably, For better for worse, FOR RICHER FOR POORER!

I'm sorry but when someone is married it becomes a household income and Anthea Turners money should have been used to pay off any of his bad debts.

There is something inherently wrong when someone can declare bankrupt and still continue to live a life of luxury, because some people down the line are paying for their mistakes.

Mr_Mumble

gagahouse wrote: »

Bringing this thread back on topic, if this author is correct, and he makes a very cogent argument, we should expect many more years of anaemic growth for the UK.

It is a long read with some eye opening numbers and good economic analysis, more interesting than the usual housing borefest / ego battles we get on this thread.

http://www.tullettprebon.com/Documents/strategyinsights/Tim_Morgan_Report_007.pdf

A quick summary of the report from FTAlphaville:
Britain isn’t just in very deep trouble. It’s doomed

Thrugelmir

gagahouse wrote: »

Bringing this thread back on topic, if this author is correct, and he makes a very cogent argument, we should expect many more years of anaemic growth for the UK.

A slow boat for 10 years?

gagahouse

Thrugelmir wrote: »

A slow boat for 10 years?

I think he makes valid points about the role of net external private credit's role in the 'boom' and that now it has gone the 58% (70% if you include retail) of the economy dependent on growth in credit is going to struggle to grow without it.

This will also have obvious consequences on the OBR's deficit and debt reduction assumptions as most of the burden of reduction falls on economic growth rather than raising taxes and cutting spending.

It also raises the risk that deteriorating debt dynamics will result in speculative attack like the PIIGS have undergone. Only the FX markets are exhibiting any signs of this unfolding, albeit very slowly. Should the Gilt and equity markets begin to do the same, it's curtains for the pound.

Gilt spreads over Bunds have tightened rather than widened last 6 months (in 10's, haven't checked the short end in a while), and UK CDS have outperformed German CDS as well. In other words the UK has it's problems, but Europe is in such a mess that it is considered a relative 'safe haven' for the moment.

Heyman_2

gagahouse wrote: »

Bringing this thread back on topic, if this author is correct, and he makes a very cogent argument, we should expect many more years of anaemic growth for the UK.

It is a long read with some eye opening numbers and good economic analysis, more interesting than the usual housing borefest / ego battles we get on this thread.

http://www.tullettprebon.com/Documents/strategyinsights/Tim_Morgan_Report_007.pdf

That is a great paper - a good source of facts and some excellent analysis. I haven't read all of it, as you say it's pretty lengthy! But most definitely an eye-opener.

gagahouse

Heyman wrote: »

That is a great paper - a good source of facts and some excellent analysis. I haven't read all of it, as you say it's pretty lengthy! But most definitely an eye-opener.

Glad you like it! :beer:

He's got many more papers at the same site, he's a bit of a maverick which I like but he does do his research thoroughly and presents the numbers well.

Thrugelmir

gagahouse wrote: »

Glad you like it! :beer:

He's got many more papers at the same site, he's a bit of a maverick which I like but he does do his research thoroughly and presents the numbers well.

Good to see an informative post. Thanks.

lisyloo

Thanks for getting the thread back on track.
Great report.
Very worrying.