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What do you expect the UK Q2 GDP % growth figure will be?
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To stop this thread from going off course I've posted my reply to Kennyboy66 in the original thread that dealt with the topic.
edit: I forgot to answer this:Kennyboy66 wrote:but why would it impact the economy any less than VAT increase ?
Misallocation of capital and labour. The benefit of £1 spent by government is less than £1 spend by the individual. Spending cuts are better for an economy than tax rises. The IMF were telling Gordon this back in 2006."The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else." -- Frederic Bastiat, 1848.0 -
I think the published figure will show 0.2 to 0.4% growth, however I think the figures will be doctored to imply there is growth when there isn't actually any.0
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Although previously there would be much excitement about our poor level of growth vs the stronger growth in countries that don't have Oik as Chancellor, its probably academic now anyway. Once the Greek bubble bursts we're all heading for the crash again anyway.....0
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So MSE contributors to this thread are pretty much as good if not better than paid economists when it comes to predictions?"When the people fear the government there is tyranny, when the government fears the people there is liberty." - Thomas Jefferson0
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Well I certainly got it spot on:The ONS highlighted a number of special events in the second quarter that may have affected the GDP figures.
They were: the additional bank holiday for the royal wedding, the wedding itself, the after-effects of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, the first phase of Olympic ticket sales and the record warm weather in April.Don't know what the figure will be but I can predict the explanations: Wrong sort of wedding, too hot (spring), too wet (summer), too expensive (petrol)I think....0 -
The second estimate of UK 2011 Q2 GDP has just been released and remains unchanged at +0.2%.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2011, following an increase of 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2011.
There were a number of special events associated with 2011 Q2 including; the additional April public holiday; the royal wedding and the after effects of the Japanese tsunami.
Total services output increased by 0.5 per cent in the second quarter compared with an increase of 0.9 per cent in the previous quarter. The largest contribution to the growth in this quarter was from business services and finance.- Business services and finance increased by 0.8 per cent, compared with an increase of 0.4 per cent in the previous quarter. Other business services contributed most to the growth in this quarter.
- Distribution, hotels and restaurants increased by 0.5 per cent, compared with an increase of 0.9 per cent in the previous quarter. Hotels and restaurants contributed most to the growth in this quarter.
- Transport, storage and communication increased by 0.8 per cent, compared with an increase of 2.5 per cent in the previous quarter. Land transport contributed most to the growth this quarter.
- Government and other services increased by 0.1 per cent, compared with a 1.1 per cent increase in the previous quarter. Health made the largest positive contribution to the quarter, partially offset by a negative contribution from recreation.
Total production output decreased 1.6 per cent in the second quarter of 2011, compared with a decrease of 0.1 per cent in the previous quarter. The largest contribution to the decline in this quarter was from mining and quarrying.- Mining and quarrying decreased by 6.8 per cent, compared with a decrease of 1.8 per cent in the previous quarter.
- Manufacturing decreased by 0.5 per cent compared with an increase of 0.7 per cent in the previous quarter.
- Electricity, gas and water supply decreased by 2.8 per cent, compared with a decrease of 3.5 per cent in the previous quarter.
ONS
ONS - pdfThere is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...0 -
The ONS has revised UK Q2 GDP estimate down by 50% to +0.1% today.
Headline figures are:
- UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms increased by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2011.
- Output of the production industries fell by 1.2%, within which manufacturing rose by 0.2%.
- Output of the service and construction industries increased by 0.2% and 1.1% respectively.
- Household final consumption expenditure decreased by 0.8% in volume terms in the latest quarter.
- In current price terms, compensation of employees increased by 0.4% in 2011 quarter two.There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...0 -
worldtraveller wrote: »The ONS has revised UK Q2 GDP estimate down by 50% to +0.1% today.
Are you sure? If it went from 0.15% to 0.14% that wouldn't be a 50% cut.“I could see that, if not actually disgruntled, he was far from being gruntled.” - P.G. Wodehouse0 -
Are you sure? If it went from 0.15% to 0.14% that wouldn't be a 50% cut.
Indeed it wouldn't be. However, the published ONS estimate was reduced from +0.2 to +0.1, which is a 50% reduction.There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...0 -
More spin and bullsh1t and totally meaningless."The problem with quotes on the internet is that you never know whether they are genuine or not" -
Albert Einstein0
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