Sellers start slashing prices

Pimperne1

Mexas wrote: »

No spring bounce in the north west. :money:

To be honest it's a two tier market. If you live in the North West, North East or in Wales then things are dire - prices could continue heading down there - if you live in London or the South East then you are in relative clover. All the other places are somewhere in between.

Jegersmart

Pimperne1 wrote: »

To be honest it's a two tier market. If you live in the North West, North East or in Wales then things are dire - prices could continue heading down there - if you live in London or the South East then you are in relative clover. All the other places are somewhere in between.

I have read some of your posts recently on (usually) house price related threads.

What is your interest in this market? Most people's position in the housing market is fairly static or illiquid if you like - you seem to be different on that point?

Pimperne1

Jegersmart wrote: »

I have read some of your posts recently on (usually) house price related threads.

What is your interest in this market? Most people's position in the housing market is fairly static or illiquid if you like - you seem to be different on that point?

I am glad you asked that question whilst Geneer is working.

My view is, and has been for a long time, that prices are a bit high and in 2007 I was forecasting a "soft landing" which I would equate to being about 10% off of late 2007 prices. Notwithstanding the correction we have already had I think that prices remain just a little too high at present but I see that being evened out by inflation going up and house prices remaining pretty much static for at least a year. Land Registry is my index of choice as Nationwide have too small a sample, Halifax is just too erratic and comparing like with like seems like the sensible way to compare price changes.

The market view is distorted in the provision of a national rate of increase/fall. There are two different markets, London and the South East and The Rest - there is too much rejoicing by people who want to buy in the former when the drop in prices is mostly governed by what has happened in the latter.

Presently I think we are rumbling along the bottom, there is both a sellers and buyers strike. I believe that there is a shortage of good quality housing available and that, in the long term, house prices will again revert to their inflation plus a bit HPI.

I further believe that there are a number of distressed/forced sellers each month and, just a guess, would put that number at about 30k. The other 20k who seem to be buying at the moment are people who have made sufficient either to raise the deposit and know that they will benefit long term or investors (who are pretty much the same as the other buyers - they have money and know that in the long term it will do well in bricks and mortar).

I have been into BtL since 1999. I currently have four rental properties (two of which I bought in 2007 and are therefore worth a bit less than what I paid for them but I bought them with profits from another sale so swings and roundabouts) and I have also rented out my PPR (as Woolwich were good enough to let me stay on their excellent tracker as I intend to re-occupy the place within two years).

I have a bid in for another rental/sell on property as it is a flat in a building I know well and the lease is getting very low. The remaining freeholders are keen to extend the lease/sell a share of the freehold so by putting another £15k onto the price I will be increasing the value by circa £30k. It has been on the market for months so I don't see myself depriving a worthy FTB (although I will be buying it for quite a bit less than it is on the market for but they too had the option of offering this price).

I have been banned from HPC and Creditcrunch because of my views (but according to them because I am a troll). The new argument that there has been a crash because "real" prices have gone down is just so amusing. I have seen the 70% club mentioned on here and if they mean that they expect prices to drop 70% from current then that will overtake the "real" prices argument as my favourite folly.

Go for it Geneer.

StevieJ

Pimperne1 wrote: »

I have been banned from HPC and Creditcrunch because of my views (but according to them because I am a troll). The new argument that there has been a crash because "real" prices have gone down is just so amusing. I have seen the 70% club mentioned on here and if they mean that they expect prices to drop 70% from current then that will overtake the "real" prices argument as my favourite folly.

Go for it Geneer.

Oh the irony! that was the so called bulls predicted method of market correction, and was laughed at by the '70% by Christmas' bears in 2008, now it is one of their favourite mantras.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

It takes a special kind of mentalism (Hi geneer) to try and claim "real terms" falls as a win for bears.

geneer

Pimperne1 wrote: »

My view is, and has been for a long time, that prices are a bit high and in 2007 I was forecasting a "soft landing" which I would equate to being about 10% off of late 2007 prices.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:Riiiiiiiiiight.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It takes a special kind of mentalism (Hi geneer) to try and claim "real terms" falls as a win for bears.

Its a win for those who want to see house prices become more affordable. End of.

Combine it with a nominal crash too, and it takes a special kind of mentalism (Hi Hamish) to spend his days screaming in denial at the internet.