My Interest rate gamble pays off again!

michaels

N1AK wrote: »

If someone said to you that you could bet everything you had on rolling 3 or higher on a 6 sided dice and if you won you'd keep everything and get twice as much as winnings would you take it? I know I wouldn't because the benefit of winning (a more comfortable lifestyle) isn't worth nearly as much as the downsides of losing what I already have (decades of cutting back on spending and saving).

There is some interesting behavioural economic theory around attitudes/valuations placed on risk. We expect shares on average to return more than money in the bank because returns are more risky and yet we will gamble on sporting events or in casinos where due to the bookies margin the 'expected value' is less than the cost of the bet...go figure.

N1AK

michaels wrote: »

There is some interesting behavioural economic theory around attitudes/valuations placed on risk. We expect shares on average to return more than money in the bank because returns are more risky and yet we will gamble on sporting events or in casinos where due to the bookies margin the 'expected value' is less than the cost of the bet...go figure.

Nate Silver and a number of others have proposed that prediction markets give far more honest, and accurate, assessments than simple polls and questions.

Before the last American election Republican aligned pundits would still say they believed Mitt would win just before the vote. At that stage it was almost certain that Barack would win. They knew this, but it was not in their interest to say so.

If they'd had to put up a considerable amount of money on odds that supported their view then chances are they'd have either changed position or refused to give an opinion.

OffGridLiving

Percy1983 wrote: »

I suppose the problem is to gloat about benefits to many people who haven't got those benefits not because not because they made the wrong choice but because the choice was never available to them.

Percy1983 wrote: »

the point is this was a risk and reward both of which weren't available to many, in his situation at the time I would have probably made the same choices.

I doubt such a golden goose will ever be in front of me but I have made other time investments which will hopefully work out just nicely.

Percy1983 wrote: »

I bought my house at the bottom of the dip, it was nothing but luck that the bottom of the dip fitted with when the deposit was ready.

So despite your earlier statements of you making the same choices if they were available, but that they weren't, you go onto say that you did buy a house (in 2008/09?) at the bottom of the dip. I believe that the OP bought his house in 2010, so bought after you.

You therefore seem to have had the same oportunities - to buy a house after a crash, to buy a house in a recession, to buy a house that needed work (and that work would add value), to max out your borrowing to buy the best house you could afford, and to borrow on an interest only mortgage in order to pay for the renovations.

If all of that is the case, then I'm not sure how you can complain about not having the choices available to you because they clearly were and you decided not to take them. Is that not correct?

shortchanged_2

OffGridLiving wrote: »

I believe that the OP bought his house in 2010, so bought after you.
QUOTE]

Jeez, are you still pretending that you are not renoman offgrid?

OffGridLiving

shortchanged wrote: »

Jeez, are you still pretending that you are not renoman offgrid?

Oh are you back on this username now Dribley?

Jeeze, you're really pathetic.

shortchanged_2

OffGridLiving wrote: »

Oh are you back on this username now Dribley?

Jeeze, you're really pathetic.

You'll have to do better than that renoman.

OffGridLiving

shortchanged wrote: »

You'll have to do better than that renoman.

Have you ever thought that you'd actually get more out of MSE if you entered into debates, conversations and discussions rather than just having a load of sockpuppets posting purile one-liners and 'thanking' each other?

Or have you reached the zenith of your intellect with the sockies?

RUN_RABBIT_RUN

OffGridLiving wrote: »

Have you ever thought that you'd actually get more out of MSE if you entered into debates, conversations and discussions rather than just having a load of sockpuppets posting purile one-liners and 'thanking' each other?

well there's a thread topic all of its own - maybe martin should put that one on the weekly email

been away a while....doesn't look like much has changed round here!

System

For what i't's worth I don't think anyone else on this forum runs multi IDs, and for that reason I'm 99% certain he's re-wired as well but there's no way of ever proving except the knowledge that no one else is tragic enough to do it, It takes a spectacular amount of resentment to put that much effort in. Selling a house at the very bottom of the market would do it - https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/1719877

Renoman's had tons but in his defence, only has one at a time

Percy1983

OffGridLiving wrote: »

So despite your earlier statements of you making the same choices if they were available, but that they weren't, you go onto say that you did buy a house (in 2008/09?) at the bottom of the dip. I believe that the OP bought his house in 2010, so bought after you.

You therefore seem to have had the same oportunities - to buy a house after a crash, to buy a house in a recession, to buy a house that needed work (and that work would add value), to max out your borrowing to buy the best house you could afford, and to borrow on an interest only mortgage in order to pay for the renovations.

If all of that is the case, then I'm not sure how you can complain about not having the choices available to you because they clearly were and you decided not to take them. Is that not correct?

I bought it in 2012, my only opportunities where fixed rates way about base or trackers marginally below the fix. So no I couldn't over spend and then get a nice tracker and pray rates stay low.